NBA betting: Four bets that stand out for Sunday’s playoff games
Bets for Sunday
Malik Beasley over 13.5 points (-130)
The Pistons need Beasley to space the floor in order to stay competitive against a more experienced and deeper Knicks roster. The clear second scoring option for Detroit past Cade Cunningham, Beasley has missed 15 of his past 18 shots from 3-point range across the past two games. I’d be concerned about this slump if it appeared the Knicks were taking touches and shots away from Beasley’s offensive diet, but his usage and volume are right in line with the regular season role that saw him finish just one 3-pointer shy of the league lead. Which is to say; positive regression is due for Beasley in both scoring and shooting success.
On the other side of the floor, Karl-Anthony Towns over 21.5 points appears achievable given matchup advantages.
Luka Doncic over 7.5 assists (+115)
It’s rare to see Doncic with a passing tally this low and with plus odds. This is an indication that betting markets and predictive models believe Minnesota’s effective blitzing of Doncic in Game 3 could prove sustainable into Game 4. The Wolves’ mix of long and gifted wing defenders certainly helps when throwing extra bodies at Doncic at the top of pick-and-roll actions or dribble hand-offs, but looking back at Game 3 reveals Doncic made plenty of swift and savvy passes out of these blitzes, but the Lakers‘ catch-and-shoot success simply wasn’t present.
Like with Beasley, the Lakers’ floor-spacers are likely due for a better day. It’s safe to assume Doncic feels better for this game and that the Timberwolves will continue to get the ball out of his hands as often as possible.
Derrick White over 19.5 points and rebounds (-115)
With Jalen Suggs out for the Magic, White doesn’t really have overcome a difficult individual matchup as he produces against Orlando. The absence of Jrue Holiday is significant for White in that he consumes more offensive possessions in such scenarios.
The fact Jaylen Brown is not at full strength also adds to the potential workload for White. This is a scoring and rebounding bar White has cleared in all three matchups with the Magic thus far. Big minutes and a big role are a great combination for this gifted combo guard.
Pascal Siakam over over 31.5 points, rebounds, and assists (-120)
The player with the highest usage rate and most robust shot diet on the Pacers is Siakam. The versatile forward has surpassed this combined offensive prop in all but two of his past 10 games against foes that rank in the bottom third in the league in rebounding efficiency.
The Bucks qualify, which is possibly why Siakam has regularly cruised past this threshold against Milwaukee, doing so in his past seven matchups with the team. The Bucks are favored as they seek to square the series, meanwhile Siakam is going to be his team’s primary scoring and rebounding option as the Pacers chase a controlling lead in the series.
Projections and Injury Reports
Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Odds by ESPN BET
Players in italics are available in a majority of ESPN Leagues
New York Knicks at Detroit Pistons
1 p.m. ET
Line: Knicks 2.5 (-110) | Pistons -2.5 (-104)
Money line: Knicks +110 | Pistons -130
Total: 216.5 (-110 O, -104 U)
BPI Projection: Knicks by 0.3, straight up 51%, 220.8 total points.
Injury Report:
Knicks: Mitchell Robinson, (GTD – Illness)
Pistons: Isaiah Stewart, (GTD – Knee); Jaden Ivey, (OUT – Lower Leg)
Los Angeles Lakers at Minnesota Timberwolves
3:30 p.m. ET
Line: Lakers 2.5 (-104) | Timberwolves -2.5 (-110)
Money line: Lakers +120 | Timberwolves -145
Total: 208.5 (-104 O, -110 U)
BPI Projection: Timberwolves by 0.5, straight up 52%, 213.7 total points.
Injury Report:
Lakers: Maxi Kleber, (OUT – Foot)
Timberwolves: Rob Dillingham, (OUT – Ankle)
Boston Celtics at Orlando Magic
7 p.m. ET
Line: Celtics -7.5 (EVEN) | Magic 7.5 (-115)
Money line: Celtics -300 | Magic +250
Total: 198.5 (-110 O, -104 U)
BPI Projection: Celtics by 4.3, straight up 64%, 198.7 total points.
Injury Report:
Celtics: Jaylen Brown, (GTD – Knee); Jrue Holiday, (OUT – Hamstring)
Magic: Jalen Suggs, (OFS – Knee); Moritz Wagner, (OFS – Knee)
Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks
9:30 p.m. ET
Line: Pacers 4.5 (-104) | Bucks -4.5 (-110)
Money line: Pacers +160 | Bucks -190
Total: 226.5 (-104 O, -110 U)
BPI Projection: Bucks by 1.6, straight up 55%, 226.2 total points.
Injury Report:
Pacers: Isaiah Jackson, (OFS – Achilles)
Bucks: Tyler Smith, (GTD – Ankle)
Source: espn.com