NBA Basketball Power Index: Projections, biggest questions for 2024-25
One thing that analytics can do is see the future. It’s like a superpower without the movies made about it.
ESPN’s analytics superpower for the NBA is the Basketball Power Index (BPI). The superpower isn’t perfect, but it is better at seeing the future than the average guy doing clicker finger reps on League Pass. It sees how good teams were before, how they have changed, and who they have to play. It adjusts to the teams that overperformed underperformed, based on the players in the game.
For example, the BPI understands the Memphis Grizzlies underperformed last year with Ja Morant playing just nine games and the injury-riddled team giving plenty of minutes to guys who won’t get them this season. This season’s projected starters (Morant, Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr., Marcus Smart and Zach Edey) played a total of 137 NBA games last season, an average of 27 per player, which is coincidentally how many games Memphis won last season. The experienced guys are back, and Edey looked like a Rookie of the Year candidate in Summer League, so the BPI sees them with a 69% chance of making the playoffs in the very crowded Western Conference.
What the BPI struggles to foresee — as we all do — is injuries. Past injuries are the best projection of future injuries, so it could happen again in Memphis, and the BPI is a little leery of it. That’s one reason why top teams — not just Memphis — tend to regress toward 41 wins; the BPI doesn’t see any team likely to win 60 games this season.
Among the teams that finished at the bottom last season, the BPI also assumes that they actually compete and not tank … err, go into development mode. As a result, the BPI forecasts teams like the Brooklyn Nets, Portland Trail Blazers and Washington Wizards higher than most projection systems, thinking they’re actually going to play guys like Ben Simmons or Bojan Bogdanovic over youngster Noah Clowney. Or, in the Wizards’ case, Malcolm Brogdon over second-year forward Bilal Coulibaly; or Jerami Grant over Scoot Henderson in Portland.
But in either case, the BPI will adapt as the season progresses.
With that introduction, let’s answer the top party topics that the BPI can address.
Who’s gonna win it all?
Last season, the BPI picked the Milwaukee Bucks to have the best title odds, with a 21% chance to win the championship. It liked the talented combination of forwards Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton with guard Damian Lillard. But it couldn’t fully account for the coaching soap opera that played out (it doesn’t really watch soap operas). Antetokounmpo, in particular, questioned the old boss, Adrian Griffin, until he was let go, and then the new boss was no better than the old boss. That didn’t help them, and the BPI doesn’t forget.
This year, the BPI is giving the Celtics a league-high 26% chance to repeat as NBA champions. It really likes them and is hoping for no soap operas there. Boston had talent at every position last year, and the people who got on coach Joe Mazzulla’s case the year before for his decisions had to stay silent through a dominant run. The BPI doesn’t explicitly see the details running through Mazzulla’s brain, but it sees enough, and thinks they will lead to a 19th banner raised in Boston.
Best chance to make the NBA Finals
*according to ESPN BPI
| Team | Win Title | Make Finals |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Boston Celtics | 25.9% | 38.6% |
| 2. Oklahoma City Thunder | 12.5% | 24.0% |
| 3. Philadelphia 76ers | 12.5% | 22.0% |
| 4. Dallas Mavericks | 10.3% | 20.5% |
| 5. Cleveland Cavaliers | 5.7% | 11.7% |
| 6. Minnesota Timberwolves | 4.8% | 11.1% |
| 7. Denver Nuggets | 4.6% | 11.0% |
| 8. Milwaukee Bucks | 4.2% | 9.3% |
| 9. Miami Heat | 3.8% | 8.1% |
| 10. Memphis Grizzlies | 2.6% | 6.9% |
| 11. Phoenix Suns | 1.6% | 4.6% |
| 12. Sacramento Kings | 1.6% | 4.1% |
| 13. Los Angeles Lakers | 1.5% | 4.0% |
| 14. New Orleans Pelican | 1.4% | 3.8% |
| 15. LA Clippers | 1.3% | 3.7% |
| 16. Houston Rockets | 1.2% | 3.3% |
There are legitimate competitors to the Celtics, though. The Philadelphia 76ers have gotten better, but whether All-Star big man Joel Embiid can hold up (39 games for just 1,309 minutes played last season) is always a question. The duo of Tyrese Maxey and Paul George also provides a considerable safety net if he doesn’t. (Those of us who built the BPI to see the future are still a bit skeptical of its ability to predict the impact of Embiid’s health. More on that in a subsequent section.)
In the Western Conference, the BPI loves the Oklahoma City Thunder and their talented, young core of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, who were good last season and should be even better this year. Plus, they picked up center Isaiah Hartenstein from New York, who did his job very well under the simple teachings of Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau. ESPN BET has the Thunder second to the Celtics in championship odds, and the BPI agrees.
Before the BPI simulates the season, it has already determined that 12 of the top 18 teams by talent are out West, which means teams like Kevin Durant’s Phoenix Suns and LeBron James’ Los Angeles Lakers remarkably face coin-flip chances as to whether they make the playoffs. Right now, Minnesota, Denver, Dallas and Memphis all have better BPI projections of making the playoffs.
Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and the Boston Celtics are favorites to repeat as NBA champions. Brian Babineau/NBAE via Getty Images
Can the Mavericks and their new Big 3 get back to the Finals?
The Mavericks — with Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving and Klay Thompson — are one of six teams with three players who’ve made an All-NBA team in their careers.
Having three stars (or more) does help. Looking back over the past two decades, teams that entered a season with four or more All-NBA players averaged about 50 wins a season. Teams with three averaged 47 wins. Teams with two averaged 46 wins. Teams with one — such as last season’s Oklahoma City squad with Gilgeous-Alexander that had a West-leading 57 wins — averaged 39 wins. Teams that didn’t have an All-NBA player averaged only 34 wins.
Those are averages that generally support the idea, but there is important variability. Of teams like Dallas, with three All-NBA players, 57% of them didn’t get past the first round of the playoffs (including the Suns last season).
But that’s not Dallas, right? Luka is young, Kyrie is still the best finishing guard we’ve ever seen, and Klay will see and make a lot of open looks. Fortunately, the BPI sees what these guys are and where they’re trending. This season has the Mavs with the fourth-best chances at a title with 10% of the hypothetical futures. That percentage may not seem like much, but for perspective, Golden State won the title in 2022 with three All-NBA players when their chance that season was only about 2%.
For the record, Philly has four players this year who have made All-NBA Teams (along with Embiid and George, reserves Andre Drummond and Kyle Lowry are the ones you forgot). Along with Dallas and Phoenix, the other teams with an All-NBA trio are the Celtics, Minnesota Timberwolves and Sacramento Kings.
What do we make of the revamped Knicks and Timberwolves?
If you somehow missed it, Karl-Anthony Towns is now with the New York Knicks. Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo are now Minnesota Timberwolves.
Before the trade, the BPI saw a pretty good future for the Knicks with a good chance of a top-six seed in the playoffs.
Then the BPI saw the trade. And liked it … for Minnesota, at least. Both teams saw their playoff chances increase, but the Wolves’ playoff chances went up from approximately 65% to 80% in the West, while the Knicks edged up a hair to 65% in the East. The Wolves’ title odds went from 4% to 5%, whereas the Knicks went down from 3% to 1%. The Knicks’ high-end future actually doesn’t seem so high to the BPI.
The reason for that is that the BPI doesn’t see Towns as dramatically better than Randle or DiVincenzo. The Wolves got two good players who provide a good 4,000 minutes per season, whereas the Knicks got one good player who has averaged about 1,700 minutes over the past five seasons. Yes, we know, the BPI is probably going to get booed out of Madison Square Garden the next time it shows up.
Projecting the NBA’s best (and worst) offenses and defenses
In the modern NBA world of skilled shooters, defense is a lot of running and communication. More running if there’s poor communication. Now the floor is often so spread out that the paint is wide open. Everyone is shooting. The value of even a 33% 3-point shot is still higher than most midrange shots. What this means is that the randomness of the 3-point shot is pervasive. Some nights, they’re gonna fall.
And some nights, the Celtics are going to shoot 35 of them, make eight, and lose by 24 to the Cavaliers, like they did in Game 2 of their playoff series. Then doomsayers will then criticize Mazzulla for a couple of days. the BPI acknowledges this randomness in 3s and projects that offenses and defenses are going to be a little closer together. Either that, or it’s throwing up its hands trying to figure out which teams’ shots are going to consistently fall this season.
If it’s the former, the BPI’s top five offensive teams project to be the Celtics, Thunder, 76ers, Mavericks and Pacers. The Celtics, Pacers and Thunder were all there last season, but Philly enters the top echelon courtesy of George. And Dallas is there with its three All-NBA guys and a couple of rim-scaring big men.
Offensive Projections
*according to ESPN BPI
| Team Rank | Off. BPI |
|---|---|
| BEST TEAMS | |
| 1. Boston Celtics | 3.0 |
| 2. Oklahoma City Thunder | 2.4 |
| 3. Philadelphia 76ers | 2.3 |
| 4. Dallas Mavericks | 2.1 |
| 5. Indiana Pacers | 2.0 |
| WORST TEAMS | |
| 26. Orlando Magic | -2.4 |
| 27. Portland Trail Blazers | -2.6 |
| 28. Detroit Pistons | -2.7 |
| 29. San Antonio Spurs | -3.0 |
| 30. Washington Wizards | -4.2 |
For the BPI’s bottom five offensive teams, Detroit, Portland and San Antonio all repeat. Washington just missed it last season, but it traded away Tyus Jones, its top 3-point shooter, and Deni Avdija, its third-best 3-point shooter, in return for reinforced backboards to withstand all the clanking.
On defense, the BPI projects Minnesota and Oklahoma City to return to the top five. Memphis has Jaren Jackson Jr. and Marcus Smart, and the optimism of health that puts it in the top five. Philly can thank George again for its inclusion here, too. Cleveland didn’t make the top five last season, but it was No. 1 the season before, so this season’s appearance makes sense.
For the BPI’s worst defensive teams, the Rudy Gobert-less Utah Jazz make another appearance, while the Wizards and Hawks similarly project to repeat in this tier. Indiana enters the bottom five, partially because coach Rick Carlisle has seemingly accepted that this group loves going fast and … to heck with the consequences. They could be better, for sure.
And then there’s Detroit. New coach J.B. Bickerstaff helped construct a good defense in Cleveland, and I think the young guys will respond initially on that end, but the BPI thinks I’m off. Actually, the BPI doesn’t acknowledge the coaches, but it still thinks I’m off.
Defensive Projections
*according to ESPN BPI
| Team Rank | Def. BPI |
|---|---|
| BEST TEAMS | |
| 1. Minnesota Timberwolves | 2.3 |
| 2. Memphis Grizzlies | 2.3 |
| 3. Cleveland Cavaliers | 1.8 |
| 4. Oklahoma City Thunder | 1.8 |
| 5. Philadelphia 76ers | 1.8 |
| WORST TEAMS | |
| 26. Detroit Pistons | -1.8 |
| 27. Indiana Pacers | -1.9 |
| 28. Atlanta Hawks | -2.1 |
| 29. Utah Jazz | -2.2 |
| 30. Washington Wizards | -3.3 |
What the BPI sees for teams who could impact the Cooper Flagg watch
All eyes will be on which team lands the coveted No. 1 pick for the chance to potentially take Duke standout Cooper Flagg (the current top-ranked prospect on ESPN’s Big Board), but there’ll be another race involving three teams with major lottery implications.
The San Antonio Spurs are owed two first-round picks for the 2025 draft — an unprotected pick from the Atlanta Hawks and a top-10-protected selection from the Chicago Bulls. The BPI doesn’t project the Spurs to do well this season (expected win total of just 31), despite loving Victor Wembanyama. But Spurs fans can take solace: You can watch those two other teams to see how fun the 2025 offseason will be.
Atlanta has a huge incentive to be good, though. The brass doesn’t want to see a high draft pick fly away. The Hawks would rather see a low draft pick fly away. The fact that the organization has that incentive doesn’t mean that the players share it. That’s where a cohesive organization needs everyone playing for each other, from ownership to management to coaches to players. On a team where Trae Young’s personality hasn’t exactly endeared him to others, that level of cohesion might be difficult for the Hawks to find.
I wish I could say motivation was explicitly a factor for the BPI because it matters on the order of five or more wins per season. It is somewhat reflected in there because Young has had his share of both positive and negative influence show up in his stats the past several years. For now, the BPI sees Atlanta likely finishing with 37 wins and about a 34% chance of making the playoffs. It even projects the draft pick the Hawks owe the Spurs landing at No. 11, which Atlanta should set as a reasonable expectation, and something that the Spurs will be happy enough with.
Chicago is in a more precarious situation. If the Bulls are on pace for their usual 35-39 wins around the All-Star break (which is what the BPI projects now), they could go into full-on development mode (or whatever you want to call it) to finish the season. No matter how smart the BPI is, it can’t read the minds of the Bulls organization, especially months before such a decision is likely to be made. For right now, it sees them with about a 46% chance of being among the bottom 10 teams, but the pingpong balls could randomly push their pick back to No. 11, which would be fun for the Spurs, at least.
Pains in the stats: How the BPI analyzes injuries
The BPI actually separates out what version of a team it rates, using the full-strength version in which no one is injured. It also has a rating for a team’s likely playoff roster, which is close to full strength but factors some players who may be out. And then there is a game-level version such as, for example, who the New Orleans Pelicans are putting out on the floor on the nights Zion Williamson might be out. This version is especially important for the Grizzlies and 76ers, too — really any team whose fortunes rely strongly upon the talents of one or two players.
With every game, the BPI tries to separate how much of the performance is associated with the full-strength squad vs. who actually played. Memphis had over 400 games missed because of injury last season, which is roughly five players per game. Philadelphia had Embiid ready to return for the play-in and the subsequent playoffs after his late-season meniscus injury, which the BPI anticipates and accounts for.
Unfortunately, it still didn’t anticipate Williamson getting injured in the Pelicans’ play-in game.
Forecasting the usual injuries to important but injury-prone players such as Embiid, Williamson or LA Clippers star Kawhi Leonard is not something that the BPI does particularly well, but it matters. Players will likely get hurt and miss important games, but the BPI has missed that chatter.
Pelicans star Zion Williamson and 76ers big man Joel Embiid are looking to remain healthy this season. Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images
Surprise contender? Don’t sleep on the Cavaliers
As I look at the BPI’s projections and get a feel for what’s happening around the league that it doesn’t see, the biggest surprise I can see coming is the Cleveland Cavaliers. Their starting five includes three All-Stars (Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland and Jarrett Allen), along with potential breakout stars Evan Mobley and Max Strus. They pushed the Celtics in the conference semifinals without Mitchell for two games and Allen the whole series.
The Cavs’ most notable change this offseason was hiring Kenny Atkinson as the coach after four full seasons under Bickerstaff. Some coaching changes can go sour and some sweet. Milwaukee’s change last season went sour, but I think that early Cavs growing pains with Atkinson will ultimately end up sweet. And I’d pick them, from the BPI’s output, as the most reasonable outside-the-box NBA Finals contender. (And the BPI likes their championship odds more than most gambling houses.)
Technospiel
The BPI has been constructed and modified over several years and has the most sophisticated algorithm I’ve seen for a power rating. This new and improved version looked at past seasons to learn from them. I like how it rates teams at varying levels of player availability and that it replicates the general trend of increasing offense through the years. Its projection of a team’s chance to win a game in light of player availability is also quite intricate.
But that doesn’t mean that it’s without flaws or that it’s going to beat Vegas. I can certainly say that there are things in the BPI that will get revised to some degree. It doesn’t incorporate every piece of information and it estimates player value based on a box score statistic like plus/minus used on Basketball-Reference.com, which has its flaws. We are planning on gradually replacing that with better versions of player metrics.
Source: espn.com