NBA awards: Picks for MVP, All-NBA teams, Rookie of the Year
As the NBA picks back up in earnest after the All-Star break, the competition for the league’s individual awards has taken shape.
With a third of the schedule remaining, we have a good idea now which players will reach the 65-game threshold necessary to win major awards, including Most Valuable Player and Defensive Player of the Year. And while there’s room for the races to shift between now and April, favorites — or, in the case of Most Improved Player, co-favorites — have emerged for each award.
With the help of current odds from ESPN BET and an eye on what advanced statistics tell us about player performance, let’s take a closer look at how the races for the NBA’s major awards can be expected to play out, including whether Shai Gilgeous-Alexander can unseat three-time winner Nikola Jokic to become the league’s MVP.
Jump to an award:
Most Valuable Player | Def. Player of the Year
Rookie of the Year | Sixth Man of the Year
Most Improved | Coach of the Year
All-NBA teams
MVP
The favorite:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, G, Oklahoma City Thunder
ESPN BET odds: -550
The leader in the MVP straw poll conducted last week by ESPN’s Tim Bontemps, Gilgeous-Alexander has moved ahead of Jokic by virtue of doing something nobody has done in years: surpassing Jokic in the most advanced value stats that combine box scores with impact on team performance (adjusted for teammates), opponents and luck.
Although Jokic has a slight edge in the LEBRON impact metric, Gilgeous-Alexander has more comfortably outperformed him in estimated plus-minus (EPM) wins, which Jokic has led every season since 2020-21. Add in Oklahoma City’s regular-season dominance (a league-best 104.5 defensive rating) and Gilgeous-Alexander has rightfully emerged as the MVP favorite.
Other contenders:
Nikola Jokic, C, Denver Nuggets
ESPN BET odds: +350
The MVP odds narrowed slightly after the straw poll, and on “The Hoop Collective” podcast, Bontemps laid out the path for Jokic to win a fourth MVP if the Nuggets surge into second in the West. Ninth in the standings after an 11-10 start, Denver has moved within a half-game of the Memphis Grizzlies for second with Jokic averaging a triple-double.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, F, Milwaukee Bucks
ESPN BET odds: +10,000
What was a three-player race early in the season has likely narrowed to two with Antetokounmpo missing the Bucks’ last six games before the All-Star break because of a calf strain. He can miss no more than six games the rest of the way to remain eligible for MVP, and more importantly, All-NBA. Before that, Antetokounmpo’s advanced stats weren’t quite as strong as you’d think based on his averages of 31.8 points on 61% shooting. One factor working against Antetokounmpo’s value: He’s shooting a career-low 58% at the foul line.
Defensive Player of the Year
The favorite:
Victor Wembanyama, C, San Antonio Spurs
ESPN BET odds: -2500
Both the basic and advanced stats favor Wembanyama, whose 3.8 blocks per game are the most by any player since Theo Ratliff averaged 3.7 in 2000-01. A handful of defensive specialists have better EPM and LEBRON defensive ratings than Wembanyama, but none play as many minutes or will even qualify for Defensive Player of the Year, making him an overwhelming favorite.
Other contenders:
Luguentz Dort, G, Oklahoma City Thunder
ESPN BET odds: +4,000
Wembanyama is an atypical choice because the Spurs remain a below-average defense. Since the NBA began tracking possessions in 1996-97, no winner has come from a team ranked worse than 13th in defensive rating, and Marcus Camby (2006-07) was the last winner whose team’s defense was outside the top five. Of the leading contenders, Dort is the lone player on a top-five defense, although the Thunder’s league-best defensive rating is built more by committee than one dominant defender.
Jaren Jackson Jr., F, Memphis Grizzlies
ESPN BET odds: +2,500
Evan Mobley, F, Cleveland Cavaliers
ESPN BET odds: +3,000
If voters are looking for a compromise candidate who anchors a top-10 defense, both Jackson (the winner in 2022-23) and Mobley (third in the voting that season) are reasonable options.
Rookie of the Year
The favorite:
Stephon Castle, G, San Antonio Spurs
ESPN BET odds: +135
Castle doesn’t quite fit the usual recipe for Rookie of the Year, which is often the player with the most combined points, rebounds and assists per game. With a minimum of 40 games played — ruling out this season’s top rookie, Philadelphia 76ers guard Jared McCain, sidelined by season-ending knee surgery — the leader of those stats has won Rookie of the Year in all but two seasons since 2003-04: Malcolm Brogdon over leader Dario Saric in 2016-17 and Scottie Barnes over leader Cade Cunningham in 2021-22.
Washington Wizards forward Alex Sarr is tops in combined points, rebounds and assists per game but isn’t in the top five in Rookie of the Year odds — suggesting voters are probably dinging the No. 2 draft pick for averaging more minutes on the league’s worst team. Castle has also emerged as the consensus best long-term prospect in this class, helping his case.
Other contenders:
Kel’el Ware, C, Miami Heat
ESPN BET odds: +325
Out of Miami’s rotation most of December, Ware has been charging hard since becoming a starter alongside Bam Adebayo. He has averaged 11.5 points, 9.8 rebounds and 1.2 assists in 12 starts, easily the best production for any rookie. If Ware can keep it up the rest of the season, he stands an excellent chance of coming out of nowhere to snag Rookie of the Year.
Zach Edey, C, Memphis Grizzlies
ESPN BET odds: +1,400
Jaylen Wells, F, Memphis Grizzlies
ESPN BET odds: +850
If voters want to reward a rookie for contributing to a winning team, Edey and Wells are the best options. Wells is first and Edey second among rookies in EPM wins. However, that’s rarely how voters pick the recipient, and neither is putting up the kind of box score stats that typically translate.
Sixth Man of the Year
The favorite:
Payton Pritchard, G, Boston Celtics
ESPN BET odds: -160
Among players likely to be eligible for Sixth Man, Pritchard has easily been the most valuable, ranking 25th in EPM wins. He’s averaging 13.8 points while shooting 41% on 3s and 63% on the rare 2-point shots he attempts, producing extreme efficiency on one of the NBA’s best teams.
Other contenders:
De’Andre Hunter, F, Cleveland Cavaliers
ESPN BET odds: +300
Moving from the Atlanta Hawks to the Eastern Conference’s best team ahead of the trade deadline could highlight Hunter’s contributions this season. He leads all reserves with 18.8 points per game while shooting a career-high 40% from 3-point range. On the flip side, however, playing alongside the Cavs’ three All-Stars this season might hamper Hunter’s per-game stats. And advanced stats actually consider a different Cav as the team’s most valuable reserve: guard Ty Jerome, who’s doing a strong Pritchard impression, shooting 43% from 3 and averaging 11.4 points in just 19.1 minutes per game.
Malik Beasley, G, Detroit Pistons
ESPN BET odds: +500
Beasley has a strong chance to set the NBA record for most 3s in a season by a reserve, having previously submitted two seasons that rank in the top 10. He’s averaging nearly four 3s per game and needs just 46 more to pass Buddy Hield, who made 262 3-pointers in a reserve role in 2021-22.
Amen Thompson, F, Houston Rockets
ESPN BET odds: +4,000
Thompson would have a credible Sixth Man case if he’s eligible. However, he has come off the bench just 27 times this season. Given how well Thompson has played in his 25 games as a starter, averaging 16.5 points, 9.6 rebounds and 4.8 assists, it seems unlikely he’ll head back to the bench even when incumbent power forward Jabari Smith Jr. returns after the All-Star break.
Most Improved Player
The co-favorites:
Cade Cunningham, G, Detroit Pistons
ESPN BET odds: Even
In his fourth season, the No. 1 pick of the 2021 draft has come into his own as an All-Star and the leader of a Detroit team in playoff contention. Cunningham has pushed his usage rate to 33% without sacrificing efficiency and is averaging a career-high 9.4 assists, up from 7.5 last season.
Norman Powell, G, LA Clippers
ESPN BET odds: Even
Powell’s most improved case is more unorthodox. In his 10th NBA season at age 31, Powell has reached new heights, averaging a career-high 24.2 points after never previously topping 19.0. Powell sports both the highest usage rate of his career (27%) and the best true shooting percentage (.633). Among players with at least 25% usage in at least 1,000 minutes, just four players have scored more efficiently than Powell: Jokic, Gilgeous-Alexander, Karl-Anthony Towns and Kevin Durant.
Only one player has won the Most Improved Player award in his 30s: Darrell Armstrong in 1998-99, when he was 30.
Another contender:
Tyler Herro, G, Miami Heat
ESPN BET odds: +2,000
The betting market considers this a two-man race, but Herro is a potential consideration. He has a good story, having made his All-Star debut and won the 3-point contest during All-Star Weekend. However, Herro’s improvement in box score stats isn’t as impressive as Cunningham’s and has come with Miami sliding below .500.
Coach of the Year
The favorite:
Kenny Atkinson, Cleveland Cavaliers
ESPN BET odds: -700
Typically, this award is given for a combination of team success and overperforming expectations. The Cavaliers, battling the Thunder for the league’s best record, are maxing out both categories. By winning the next five games, Cleveland could tie the 2004-05 Phoenix Suns for the earliest team on record to hit a season over/under total (48.5 wins) of .500 or better, potentially doing so in just 59 games.
Other contenders:
J.B. Bickerstaff, Detroit Pistons
ESPN BET odds:+1,600
Amusingly, the coach Atkinson replaced in Cleveland, Bickerstaff, is one of his strongest competitors for Coach of the Year. The Pistons were the second team this season to hit their over after the Portland Trail Blazers and are on track to make the playoffs for the first time since 2019.
The closest comparison in NBA history was probably when Cotton Fitzsimmons left the Buffalo Braves — who were moving to San Diego to become the Clippers — for the Kansas City Kings in 1978. The Clippers improved by 16 wins under Gene Shue, while Fitzsimmons led the Kings to 48 wins, a 17-game improvement, and their first playoff appearance in four years. The fact that both of those franchises have since moved to different cities indicates how little precedent there is for Bickerstaff’s situation.
Ime Udoka, Houston Rockets
ESPN BET odds: +1,200
Taylor Jenkins, Memphis Grizzlies
ESPN BET odds: +2,500
The odds favor Udoka as the second-most-likely winner behind Atkinson and ahead of Bickerstaff, with Jenkins and reigning winner Mark Daigneault of the Oklahoma City Thunder tied for fourth. I’m not sure that makes sense with Houston sliding 2½ games back of Memphis in the standings. That’s nearly the difference between the two teams in over/under totals, where the Grizzlies were three games ahead of the Rockets. If Memphis can hang on to second in the West, I’d give Jenkins a good shot of being a finalist.
All-NBA teams
play0:50Giannis would ‘love’ a USA vs. World All-Star Game format
Giannis Antetokounmpo says he would love to see a Team USA vs. The World format in the All-Star Game.
All-NBA first team
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets
Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics
Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
Wembanyama finished eighth in the latest MVP straw poll, but I suspect he has a better chance of making the first team because voters put less weight on team success with All-NBA consideration than MVP. The other question is whether Antetokounmpo can stay eligible. The three other first-team locks are safely on pace to reach the 65-game minimum.
All-NBA second team
Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks
Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves
Jaren Jackson Jr., Memphis Grizzlies
Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers
Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks
These are the other five players who finished in the top 10 in straw poll voting, as well as three of the remaining All-Star starters. Edwards finished behind Stephen Curry in media voting to start the All-Star Game, but I suspect that was partially because the game was being played at the Golden State Warriors’ home venue. Jackson was a distant fifth in West frontcourt voting but is now getting more credit as the best player on a Memphis team that is second in the West.
All-NBA third team
Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons
Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
Kevin Durant, Phoenix Suns
LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers
Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers
Here’s where things get interesting. With Durant (a second-teamer last year) perhaps joining 2023-24 third-team picks in Curry and James, this would be the most decorated All-NBA third team on record. At the other end of the age spectrum, I’m giving a pair of 2021 draft picks (Cunningham and Mobley) the edge over a large group of contenders, including Darius Garland, Damian Lillard, Domantas Sabonis, Alperen Sengun and Pascal Siakam.
Source: espn.com