Introducing Net Points — the latest NBA metric and its amazing early findings
Zach LaVine scored 42 points in 31 minutes a week ago in a Sacramento win. He shot 16 of 19 from the field and it was the second-most efficient 40-point game by a player in Kings history.
It was a really good game.
But what about this triple-double from Joel Embiid on Feb. 4? He scored 29 points, but had five turnovers, shot 12 of 23 from the field, 4 of 9 from the foul line, and the 76ers were outscored by 12 points in his 36 minutes.
Was that a good game?
I turned that question into a survey among my X followers, and 61% said Embiid’s performance was a so-so game; 34% said it was a good game; 5% said it was a great game.
People can have their opinions, but this article isn’t about opinions. It’s about a new, all-encompassing NBA metric ESPN has created called Net Points, which uses play-by-play data to evaluate a player’s performance. It quantifies every rebound, shot, turnover and free throw and assigns credit and blame to the players on the court. It divides credit and blame based on the difficulty of the players’ contributions to the success or failure of the team.
So, it can capture the 12 shots Embiid made, the 11 shots he missed, his 11 rebounds, 10 assists, and five turnovers, as well as who scored against the Sixers with Embiid on the floor and how they scored.
According to Net Points, his triple-double was worth minus-0.8, very much in the “so-so” range (the poll was accurate). That means he cost the Sixers about 1 point relative to an average player.
Adding the Net Points for all of the Sixers in that game equates to a plus-2. They beat the Dallas Mavericks 118-116. That’s what the Net Points metric does. The box score hides things. Net Points can reveal them. Embiid’s basic numbers were good — 29 points, 11 rebounds, and 10 assists — but Net Points captures more than the box score, including transition opportunities, matchups and help defense, and creating better shots for teammates.
Here are the top individual games of the season so far:
+19.9 total: +16.1 offense, +3.8 defense. Giannis Antetokounmpo went 21-of-34 with 59 points in OT win Nov. 13.
+19.7: +11.5, +8.2: Karl-Anthony Towns on Dec. 19 had 32 points, 20 rebounds, 6 assists, 4 turnovers, and went 10-of-12 from the field.
+17.9: +14.0, +3.9: Tyrese Haliburton on Feb. 26 posted 33 points in 33 minutes on 12-of-15 shooting with 11 assists and 1 turnover, while the Pacers outscored the Raptors by 24.
+16.8: +14.9, +1.9: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on Feb. 5 had 50 points on 18-of-29 from the field, with 8 rebounds, 5 assists, 1 turnover.
+16.6: +15.5, +1.1: Jalen Brunson on Jan. 12 with 44 points in blowout of Milwaukee, on 16-of-26 from the field, with 6 assists and 1 turnover.
+16.1: +12.4, +3.7: Nikola Jokic on Jan. 10 when he and Russell Westbrook each had a triple-double against Brooklyn.
Giannis’ 59-point game leads the way and is particularly amazing because he added nearly 20 Net Points to the Bucks in a game they won by seven; that means his teammates cost the team 13.
Remember LaVine’s ultra-efficient 42-point performance? That was worth plus-15.4 Net Points, good enough for the 13th-best game this season.
But individual performance is the tip of the metric iceberg with Net Points. Dig a little deeper and it can reveal stories the eye test can miss.
Here is a sampling of some of the things Net Points can show
Net Points can identify why a team is stumbling — or who is to blame.
The Golden State Warriors’ season is one of the best examples. The Warriors started this season 12-3. Their offense ranked sixth and their defense was fourth. They struggled after that point, falling to 25-26 at the trade deadline, and were battling for a play-in spot. Their offense ranked 25th and their defense ranked 20th after the hot start. Who among the players was to blame for the drop-off?
Stephen Curry, Buddy Hield, and Draymond Green were playing at All-Star levels with each having Net Points per 48 minutes over plus-3.0 to start the season. Then, Curry and Green fell to career-low levels. After a hot start, Andrew Wiggins dropped to about his average. Hield regressed to the point it wasn’t worth playing him.
The acquisition of Dennis Schroder earlier in the season was also a disaster, which is why the Warriors traded him at the deadline.
Their most notable deadline move was, of course, acquiring Jimmy Butler. The Warriors have gone 8-2 in their past 10 games, with their offense and defense ranking third in the league.
And Butler is playing at his stellar playoff form, posting an All-NBA-like plus-5.1 Net Points per 48 minutes.
It can help evaluate trades like the blockbuster one between the Los Angeles Lakers and Dallas Mavericks …
It’s early and the sample size is small but so far …
Lakers get:
G Luka Doncic, worth plus-17 Net Points through eight games
F Markieff Morris, worth minus-1 Net Point in three games
F Maxi Kleber, worth 0 and likely won’t play the rest of the season
Mavericks get:
C Anthony Davis, worth plus-7 in one game
G Max Christie, worth minus-9 Net Points through 12 games
… and and predict the future
In that Luka-to-the-Lakers deal, both teams are betting on the other guy’s big star. They were betting on how much Doncic and Davis would be available and how well they’d play. Net Points can show the strength of those bets.
Through this year’s trade deadline, here is how many minutes, Net Points, and Net Points per 48 minutes each was worth over the past four years.
In production per minute, Doncic was ahead of Davis every season. In overall production, he was ahead of Davis in every season before this one. And Doncic is six years younger.
Net Points quantifies a player’s value, but it is not the only player metric on the internet. There are a lot of them, with names such as DARKO, EPM, LEBRON, and xRAPM — and those are the ones you can kind of pronounce. These are practical metrics, but they are predictive because they indicate how good a player will be in their next game.
Net Points explains the past, such as those box scores or the four-minute stretch by LeBron James against the Kings on Oct. 26 (LeBron scored 16 points in four minutes, worth plus-8 Net Points). We want Net Points to get those things right. Then, we’ll build a predictive version that will help you avoid overreacting to one game.
Up to this point in the season, we have a Net Points leaderboard. It shows some familiar names and a few that are more surprising.
Identify the most impactful players of the season
Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander are way ahead here and that is the common sentiment in the MVP race.
But Jokic has a big lead over Gilgeous-Alexander in Net Points and that is stunning. I believe metrics are good guides for voting on awards, but not the only factor. Metrics and human subjectivity are imperfect. Using that rationale, it’s fine to vote Gilgeous-Alexander for MVP.
But that’s not the only rationale. SGA led the Thunder to a better record than Jokic. Jokic has taken the Nuggets from average to good. SGA has taken Oklahoma City from good to great. It’s difficult to decide which is the greater accomplishment.
Alperen Sengun and Jarrett Allen are the surprises on this list. Allen has been a good player for years, according to this metric. His ability to finish at the rim and defend were obvious pluses in Net Points when Cleveland acquired him four years ago. Fellow Cavs Evan Mobley and Donovan Mitchell are in the top 10 in Net Points some days. Darius Garland is top 10 on offense, though his defense hurts him.
Sengun was not in this tier last season or the season before. His defensive numbers were very good to start this season, but have come down. He has been a top-30 player since mid-December.
How — and why — teams win (OKC Thunder and Cleveland Cavaliers edition
Net Points primarily quantifies players’ performances, which directly affect team success. And, because it incorporates a lot of play-by-play, it can also explain why teams are successful.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are the league’s best team in forcing turnovers and not committing them. They’re outscoring opponents by plus-12.6 points per game. What Net Points tells us is how much of that plus-12.6 scoring margin is associated with their turnover advantage. It looks at all the Net Points created from every turnover event and adds them to get plus-5.9 Net Points per game. Essentially, half of their average scoring margin comes from half-court turnovers.
That is not normal.
What is more normal is how the Cleveland Cavaliers are winning so many games — by shooting well and stopping opponents from doing the same. The Cavs’ offense gets a league-leading plus-6.4 Net Points per game from shooting 3s, and a league-leading plus-5.7 Net Points per game from shooting 2s. On defense, the Cavs give up minus-3.5 Net Points per game on 3s (bottom 10), but allow the league’s second-best mark at minus-0.5 Net Points per game on 2s. So, they’re getting plus-8.2 Net Points by shooting better than their opponents from the field.
That is more like championship-level production. That doesn’t mean Cleveland is more likely to win a title than Oklahoma City. We have the Basketball Power Index to address that better.
What this breakdown illustrates is that winning the 3-point battle — having more Net Points on offense than allowed on defense — is very strong in predicting who will win the game. Across the NBA, if a team “wins” the 3-point battle, it wins the game 72% of the time. That is higher than the 65% for winning the 2-point battle.
It is much higher than the 53% for winning the rebounding battle. Oklahoma City and Cleveland share that characteristic: OKC is the 27th-best rebounding team in the league by Net Points and Cleveland is 17th, going against the old saying that rebounding wins games.
Source: espn.com