How Durant trade chances fantasy basketball, NBA betting landscape
After weeks of speculation, the Phoenix Suns will send forward Kevin Durant to the Houston Rockets in a trade that will see Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, and draft capital heading back to Phoenix.
Durant will join a Rockets squad that finished as the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference, but fell in the first round of the playoffs.
Durant is currently ranked 22 in the fantasy basketball rankings ahead of a soon-to-be busy free agent period, while Green is ranked 53.
How has this monumental trade changed the field in fantasy basketball and NBA futures betting? We turned to our analysts Andre Snellings and Eric Moody to break it down.
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Fantasy basketball impact
Rockets: Consistent Durant, improved opportunity for young wings
The Rockets moved their two starting wings in this deal and add Durant to a starting lineup that currently projects to be Fred VanVleet, Reed Sheppard, Amen Thompson, Durant and Alperen Sengun with Jabari Smith, Tari Eason and Cam Whitmore as key reserves with starting upside. Durant’s role with this team should be similar to what it was in Phoenix — a high-volume, high-efficiency scorer with solid peripheral stats.
The departed Green was the Rockets’ leading scorer last season at 21.0 PPG on 17.5 FGA, while Brooks averaged another 14.0 PPG on 11.9 FGA. With the Suns last season, Durant averaged 26.6 PPG on 18.1 FGA, so in Houston he slots in to effectively get a similar number of looks as Green while finishing at a much higher efficiency.
The two Rockets most likely to get the biggest bump in fantasy hoops value from this move are Thompson and Sheppard. Thompson, the No. 4 pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, showed major upside breakout potential as a part-time starter last season. In 42 starts, he averaged 16.0 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 4.9 APG, 1.7 SPG and 1.6 BPG in 35.9 MPG. As a full-time starter in his third season, the 22-year old Thompson has legit 20/10/5 with 2.0 blocks and 2.0 steals upside.
Sheppard was the No. 3 pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, but the Rockets were so deep that Sheppard spent much of his rookie season in the G League. With this trade, the Rockets opened up space for Sheppard to play a major role as a sophomore. Sheppard is an excellent 3-point shooter and combo guard that, with starter minutes, has mid-teens scoring upside with multiple 3-pointers and a handful of assists per game.
After the trade, Durant remains a health/availability-dependent top-25 fantasy hoops prospect with top-25 upside. Thompson, as a starter, moves into the top-50 in the fantasy hoops rankings with top-30 upside. Sheppard was not on the fantasy hoops radar in the role he had last season, but if he gets starter/sixth man minutes as a sophomore he’s got a top-130 floor (fringe draftable in fantasy hoops leagues) and a top-80 (flex starter) upside.
Suns: More moves likely to come
The Suns brought in Green, a natural shooting guard, to a team where the three best incumbent players all play shooting guard. Devin Booker, Bradley Beal and Grayson Allen all naturally play the two. Brooks is another incoming wing, and his size and skillset overlap with promising rising sophomore Ryan Dunn and veteran Royce O’Neale. Given the excessive number of wings and relative dearth of starting talent at center or point guard, it seems likely that the Suns roster will likely undergo more changes this offseason in addition to the lottery-pick they just traded for. As such, it is difficult to project the fantasy hoops value of their current roster.
If we evaluate the lineup as it is, likely Booker moves to full-time point guard with Green, Beal and Allen as the primary wing options and Brooks/Dunn both playing both forward slots. Green is a rising star as a scoring guard, and he likely benefits from playing next to an All-NBA performer in Booker that would draw defensive attention and get Green more open looks. Green would take the lion share of Durant’s shot volume, and has mid-20s nightly scoring average upside.
Brooks is a 3-and-D/intensity forward, and if he maintains starter minutes his fantasy value doesn’t change much in Phoenix.
Beal is the question mark. He had fallen out of the starting lineup last season, unable to make a consistent impact as the third high-volume scorer on the team behind Booker and Durant. Though Green is a good scorer as well, he isn’t Durant, and it’s possible Beal could re-earn a larger part of the offense… when he’s healthy, which has been the other major impediment to his fantasy value.
With the roster as currently constructed, Booker’s overall fantasy value doesn’t change much, though his stats could lean a bit more towards assists if he does play full-time point guard. He’s still a fringe top-20 player with top-15 upside. Green gets a slight bump, from just outside to just inside the top-50. Beal improves slightly, from just outside to just inside the top-100. –Snellings
Betting impact
Durant’s arrival in Houston has immediately shifted the Rockets into championship contention. Before the trade, Houston’s odds to win next season’s NBA title sat at 18-1. Now? They’re +850 at ESPN BET, which is second-best in the league behind only the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The Rockets already had a strong foundation, finishing 52-30 under Ime Udoka with emerging stars like Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson. However, they struggled in key offensive areas, ranking 27th in both effective field goal percentage on jumpers and points per direct isolation. Durant, still one of the most efficient scorers in the league at age 36, directly addresses those weaknesses. He averaged 26.6 PPG while leading the league in shooting percentage on jumpers (49.7%), midrange shots (53.1%), and off-the-dribble jumpers (50.9%).
Houston sent Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks and picks to Phoenix, but retained their core and added one of the greatest scorers in league history. Durant also reunites with Ime Udoka, with whom he shares a strong relationship dating back to their time with the Brooklyn Nets and Team USA.
This trade doesn’t just improve Houston, it transforms them into a legitimate contender. With elite shot creation, proven playoff experience, and a top-tier coach, the Rockets are worth betting on. –Moody
Source: espn.com