Fantasy basketball picks and betting tips for Saturday
As March Madness unfolds, the NBA presents five games for this early-spring Saturday. Injuries and mismatches help to define today’s action, placing the onus on fantasy managers and bettors to figure out where value might surface.
Three of the day’s games have blowout potential; contenders hosting lottery-bound teams. In addition, there is a chance that LeBron James returns from a groin injury; he has been upgraded to questionable on the injury report.
The Golden State Warriors visit the Atlanta Hawks as only slight favorites. The path to value in this game could be projecting how the absence of Stephen Curry will influence production throughout the Warriors’ rotation. And finally, the Sacramento Kings host the Milwaukee Bucks in another game with a close spread and a missing All-Star guard. We won’t see Damian Lillard suit up for the Bucks due to injury, which could create opportunities for Kevin Porter Jr. in the Milwaukee offense.
Today’s slate offers intriguing betting angles and fantasy plays, from injury replacements to favorable matchups. Let’s break down Saturday’s action.
Saturday’s stream team
Alex Sarr, C/PF, Washington Wizards (rostered in 43.8% ESPN leagues): One of the quieter campaigns from a top pick is actually finishing on a high note. Sarr struggled in the early phases of his rookie season with finding touch around the rim and making sound defensive choices. Now, he’s regularly posting 20 points and has some really fun rim protection moments that speak to why he was selected so high by Washington. If Sarr is rostered or you simply need production from the wing, fellow Wizards rookie Kyshawn George (13.3%) could be busy against the Knicks’ collective of wings today.
Brandin Podziemski, PG/SG, Golden State Warriors (26.2%): Will “Air Podz” produce in Curry’s place today? Expecting him to cook at a chef’s level is not realistic, but this combo guard will gain minutes and shots in this matchup with an Atlanta defense that could prioritize stopping Jimmy Butler. With the potential for clean off-ball touches and with his stellar rebounding rate to help raise the floor, Podziemski becomes a viable plug-and-play option for Saturday’s lighter slate. Teammate Moses Moody (8.2%) could also shine in an elevated role.
Aaron Nesmith, SF, Indiana Pacers (11.7%): A breakout player last year amid Indiana’s deep playoff run, Nesmith has been injured for a good bit of this season. Now healthy and playing big minutes ahead of another playoff run, Nesmith is a worthy pickup in a matchup with a soft Brooklyn defense.
McCormick’s bets for Saturday
Brandin Podziemski over 5.5 rebounds (-125)
A second endorsement focuses solely on Podziemski’s work on the glass; he’s among the better rebounding guards in the league. The numbers back it up; he’s 10th among guards in rebounding chances the past 10 games, ahead of the likes of Cade Cunningham and James Harden during this sample. This is about positioning and playing time and also playing style, as Podziemski is a player with a sincere dedication to getting to loose balls.
Kyshawn George over 2.5 assists (-150)
I’d even be comfortable getting better odds at 3.5 dimes, as George has become an important part of the Washington offense in recent weeks. His actual assist tally can fluctuate, but his raw passing volume remains steady enough each game to project George to cruise past this prop in a matchup that could see him pad numbers as a massive underdog in MSG.
Josh Giddey over 7.5 rebounds (-120)
The Bulls won’t have Ayo Dosunmu or Lonzo Ball in the lineup for tonight’s matchup with the Lakers. Point guard Tre Jones could play, but is dealing with a recent injury. This means extra run for Giddey. With the Lakers lacking depth and size down low, Giddey could do well in the paint battling for boards. While he’s no Luka or LeBron, Giddey has been among the better double-double threats among guards this season.
Projections and Injury Reports
Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Odds by ESPN BET
Players in italics are available in a majority of ESPN Leagues
Brooklyn Nets at Indiana Pacers
5 p.m. ET
Line: Nets +9.5 (-110) | Pacers -9.5 (-110)
Money line: Nets +340 | Pacers -440
Total: 219.5 (-105 O, -115 U)
BPI Projection: Pacers by 7.8, straight up 74%, 224.9 total points.
Injury Report:
Nets: Ziaire Williams, (GTD – Hamstring); D’Angelo Russell, (OUT – Ankle); Cam Thomas, (OUT – Hamstring); De’Anthony Melton, (OUT – Knee)
Pacers: Tyrese Haliburton, (GTD – Back); Isaiah Jackson, (OUT – Achilles)
Nets projections:
Cameron Johnson, SF/PF: 31.3 FPTS (17.0 pts, 5.4 reb, 3.6 ast, 2.7 3PM)
Nic Claxton, C: 25.2 FPTS (11.0 pts, 9.1 reb, 2.6 ast, 2.1 blk)
Keon Johnson, SG: 23.6 FPTS (12.1 pts, 4.9 reb, 2.2 ast)
Day’Ron Sharpe, C: 20.9 FPTS (9.1 pts, 7.4 reb, 2.1 ast, 1.5 blk)
Tyrese Martin, SF: 20.7 FPTS (10.6 pts, 4.2 reb, 2.5 ast, 1.8 3PM)
Trendon Watford, PF: 18.3 FPTS (10.3 pts, 4.2 reb, 2.2 ast)
Jalen Wilson, PF: 16.5 FPTS (9.4 pts, 2.6 reb, 1.9 ast)
Pacers projections:
Tyrese Haliburton, PG/SG: 39.3 FPTS (17.7 pts, 3.9 reb, 7.1 ast, 2.8 3PM)
Pascal Siakam, PF: 36.5 FPTS (21.4 pts, 8.0 reb, 3.4 ast)
Myles Turner, C: 28.0 FPTS (15.8 pts, 6.6 reb, 2.1 ast, 1.8 3PM, 2.3 blk)
Bennedict Mathurin, SG/SF: 24.7 FPTS (15.7 pts, 5.6 reb, 2.1 ast)
Andrew Nembhard, PG/SG: 22.2 FPTS (10.3 pts, 3.0 reb, 4.2 ast)
Aaron Nesmith, SF: 21.5 FPTS (11.9 pts, 4.7 reb, 1.4 ast)
T.J. McConnell, PG: 16.9 FPTS (8.0 pts, 1.8 reb, 3.2 ast)
Golden State Warriors at Atlanta Hawks
7 p.m. ET
Line: Warriors -2.5 (-105) | Hawks +2.5 (-115)
Money line: Warriors -135 | Hawks +115
Total: 233.5 (-105 O, -115 U)
BPI Projection: Warriors by 4.5, straight up 65%, 235.8 total points.
Injury Report:
Warriors: Gary Payton II, (GTD – Knee); Stephen Curry, (OUT – Pelvis)
Hawks: Keaton Wallace, (GTD – Shoulder); Caris LeVert, (GTD – Knee); Trae Young, (GTD – Achilles); Larry Nance Jr., (OUT – Knee); Clint Capela, (OUT – Hand); Jalen Johnson, (OUT – Shoulder); Kobe Bufkin, (OUT – Shoulder)
Warriors projections:
Jimmy Butler III, SG/SF/PF: (18.1 pts, 5.9 reb, 6.1 ast)
Draymond Green, PF/C: 29.8 FPTS (12.0 pts, 6.5 reb, 5.8 ast)
Brandin Podziemski, PG/SG: 25.9 FPTS (11.9 pts, 5.4 reb, 3.2 ast)
Jonathan Kuminga, PF: 24.3 FPTS (14.8 pts, 4.4 reb, 2.4 ast)
Moses Moody, SG/SF: 20.9 FPTS (11.6 pts, 3.3 reb, 1.8 ast, 1.8 3PM)
Buddy Hield, SG/SF: 19.3 FPTS (9.1 pts, 2.9 reb, 2.3 ast, 2.1 3PM)
Quinten Post, C: 18.8 FPTS (9.4 pts, 5.3 reb, 1.3 ast, 1.8 3PM)
Hawks projections:
Trae Young, PG: 45.6 FPTS (25.4 pts, 3.1 reb, 8.8 ast, 2.8 3PM)
Dyson Daniels, PG/SG: 29.0 FPTS (12.5 pts, 4.6 reb, 4.2 ast)
Onyeka Okongwu, C: 24.8 FPTS (11.7 pts, 8.3 reb, 2.1 ast)
Caris LeVert, SG/SF: 24.2 FPTS (12.6 pts, 2.9 reb, 3.2 ast)
Zaccharie Risacher, PF/SF: 18.2 FPTS (10.7 pts, 3.9 reb, 1.3 ast)
Terance Mann, SG/SF: 17.1 FPTS (7.6 pts, 2.9 reb, 2.6 ast)
Mouhamed Gueye, PF: 15.6 FPTS (7.2 pts, 4.2 reb, 1.0 ast)
Washington Wizards at New York Knicks
8 p.m. ET
Line: Wizards +15.5 (-105) | Knicks -15.5 (-115)
Money line: Wizards +750 | Knicks -1400
Total: 222.5 (-115 O, -105 U)
BPI Projection: Knicks by 13.8, straight up 86%, 234.0 total points.
Injury Report:
Wizards: Marcus Smart, (GTD – Finger); Malcolm Brogdon, (OUT – Ankle); Saddiq Bey, (OUT – Knee); Bilal Coulibaly, (OUT – Hamstring); Corey Kispert, (OUT – Thumb)
Knicks: Miles McBride, (GTD – Groin); Jalen Brunson, (OUT – Ankle); Ariel Hukporti, (OUT – Knee)
Wizards projections:
Jordan Poole, PG/SG: 33.8 FPTS (19.1 pts, 2.8 reb, 4.3 ast, 2.8 3PM)
Kyshawn George, SG/SF: 25.6 FPTS (12.0 pts, 4.7 reb, 3.2 ast, 1.9 3PM)
Alex Sarr, PF/C: 25.0 FPTS (12.5 pts, 6.7 reb, 2.5 ast, 1.4 blk)
Bub Carrington, PG/SG: 23.2 FPTS (9.8 pts, 4.0 reb, 3.9 ast)
Khris Middleton, SF: 22.1 FPTS (11.1 pts, 3.4 reb, 3.1 ast)
Justin Champagnie, SF: 21.1 FPTS (8.3 pts, 6.8 reb, 1.3 ast)
AJ Johnson, SG: 17.8 FPTS (8.4 pts, 3.1 reb, 2.7 ast)
Knicks projections:
Karl-Anthony Towns, PF/C: 39.7 FPTS (21.6 pts, 10.9 reb, 3.2 ast, 1.9 3PM)
Josh Hart, SG/SF: 36.4 FPTS (12.8 pts, 9.1 reb, 6.1 ast)
OG Anunoby, SF/PF: 31.8 FPTS (16.7 pts, 4.4 reb, 2.7 ast, 2.2 3PM)
Mikal Bridges, SG/SF: 31.4 FPTS (17.3 pts, 3.0 reb, 4.2 ast, 2.1 3PM)
Miles McBride, PG: 23.5 FPTS (10.9 pts, 2.7 reb, 3.2 ast)
Cameron Payne, PG/SG: 14.3 FPTS (5.8 pts, 1.2 reb, 3.0 ast)
Mitchell Robinson, C: 14.0 FPTS (5.2 pts, 5.2 reb, 1.0 ast)
Milwaukee Bucks at Sacramento Kings
10 p.m. ET
Line: Bucks +2.5 (-110) | Kings -2.5 (-110)
Money line: Bucks +115 | Kings -135
Total: 223.5 (-110 O, -110 U)
BPI Projection: Kings by 4.1, straight up 63%, 233.7 total points.
Injury Report:
Bucks: Gary Trent Jr., (GTD – Knee); Giannis Antetokounmpo, (GTD – Knee); Damian Lillard, (OUT – Calf); Bobby Portis, (OUT – Suspension); Jericho Sims, (OUT – Thumb)
Kings: Domantas Sabonis, (OUT – Ankle)
Bucks projections:
Giannis Antetokounmpo, PF/C: 44.8 FPTS (26.6 pts, 11.1 reb, 6.1 ast, 1.2 blk)
Kyle Kuzma, SF/PF: 27.8 FPTS (17.2 pts, 5.8 reb, 2.5 ast)
Tyler Smith, SF: 23.5 FPTS (11.1 pts, 5.4 reb, 2.4 ast, 2.2 3PM)
Brook Lopez, C: 23.1 FPTS (12.5 pts, 4.9 reb, 1.8 ast, 1.8 3PM, 1.8 blk)
Gary Trent Jr., SG: 19.4 FPTS (11.1 pts, 1.9 reb, 1.4 ast, 2.0 3PM)
Taurean Prince, SF: 18.0 FPTS (8.2 pts, 3.5 reb, 1.6 ast)
Ryan Rollins, SG: 16.1 FPTS (7.5 pts, 2.7 reb, 1.8 ast)
Kings projections:
DeMar DeRozan, SF/PF: 37.6 FPTS (23.2 pts, 3.6 reb, 4.9 ast)
Malik Monk, SG/SF: 36.6 FPTS (18.9 pts, 3.8 reb, 6.0 ast, 2.2 3PM)
Zach LaVine, SG/SF: 32.0 FPTS (19.0 pts, 3.7 reb, 4.4 ast, 2.7 3PM)
Keegan Murray, SF/PF: 25.6 FPTS (13.0 pts, 5.7 reb, 1.9 ast, 2.0 3PM)
Jonas Valanciunas, C: 20.3 FPTS (9.1 pts, 7.1 reb, 2.4 ast)
Jake LaRavia, PF: 17.2 FPTS (7.6 pts, 3.7 reb, 2.3 ast)
Trey Lyles, PF: 17.2 FPTS (6.8 pts, 5.0 reb, 1.9 ast)
Chicago Bulls at Los Angeles Lakers
10:30 p.m. ET
Line: Bulls +9.5 (-120) | Lakers -9.5 (EVEN)
Money line: Bulls +340 | Lakers -450
Total: 235.5 (-115 O, -105 U)
BPI Projection: Lakers by 3.9, straight up 63%, 235.3 total points.
Injury Report:
Bulls: Kevin Huerter, (GTD – Thumb); Tre Jones, (GTD – Foot); Lonzo Ball, (OUT – Wrist); Ayo Dosunmu, (OUT – Shoulder)
Lakers: Austin Reaves, (GTD – Ankle); Dorian Finney-Smith, (GTD – Ankle); Gabe Vincent, (GTD – Knee); Jarred Vanderbilt, (GTD – Groin); LeBron James, (GTD – Groin); Luka Doncic, (GTD – Ankle); Rui Hachimura, (GTD – Knee); Maxi Kleber, (OUT – Foot)
Bulls projections:
Coby White, PG/SG: 37.2 FPTS (22.4 pts, 3.8 reb, 4.6 ast, 3.0 3PM)
Josh Giddey, PG/SG/PF: 34.8 FPTS (16.6 pts, 7.4 reb, 5.5 ast)
Nikola Vucevic, C: 34.3 FPTS (16.6 pts, 10.0 reb, 3.4 ast)
Tre Jones, PG: 24.1 FPTS (10.5 pts, 3.8 reb, 4.4 ast)
Kevin Huerter, SG/SF: 23.8 FPTS (10.7 pts, 3.9 reb, 2.7 ast, 2.1 3PM)
Zach Collins, PF/C: 19.1 FPTS (8.9 pts, 5.4 reb, 2.1 ast)
Patrick Williams, PF: 16.3 FPTS (8.9 pts, 3.4 reb, 1.5 ast)
Lakers projections:
Luka Doncic, PG: 52.6 FPTS (27.8 pts, 8.2 reb, 7.3 ast, 3.4 3PM)
LeBron James, SF/PF: 43.9 FPTS (24.5 pts, 8.2 reb, 6.7 ast, 2.2 3PM)
Austin Reaves, PG/SG/PF: 37.8 FPTS (19.7 pts, 4.6 reb, 5.9 ast, 2.8 3PM)
Jordan Goodwin, PG/SG: 23.3 FPTS (9.7 pts, 6.0 reb, 2.5 ast)
Rui Hachimura, SF/PF: 22.0 FPTS (12.0 pts, 4.4 reb, 1.5 ast)
Dorian Finney-Smith, SF/PF: 18.8 FPTS (8.9 pts, 4.3 reb, 1.4 ast, 1.9 3PM)
Jaxson Hayes, C: 17.2 FPTS (7.5 pts, 6.1 reb, 1.6 ast)
Source: espn.com