Fantasy basketball: Heat’s top three risers without Jimmy Butler
Jimmy Butler’s absence from the Miami Heat lineup has sent shockwaves through the team, both on the court and in the fantasy basketball world. Suspended three times in January, Butler’s future with the franchise is in serious doubt. With the Feb. 6 NBA trade deadline rapidly approaching, there’s speculation that Miami could move on from its star forward, and even if he isn’t dealt, it’s possible he has played his last game in a Heat uniform.
Without Butler, Miami’s rotation has shifted, creating new opportunities for several players to step up and several have seen their fantasy values rise with increased usage and production. For fantasy managers, adapting to these changes is key as the season moves into its final months.
Here’s a look at three Heat players whose fantasy values have improved most in Butler’s absence.
Tyler Herro, PG/SG
Herro is having the best season of his career, by a long shot. He has averaged 24.1 PPG, 3.9 3PG, 5.6 RPG and 5.4 APG, all career-best marks for him. These numbers have also translated to Herro ranking No. 33 in the NBA in fantasy points per game.
Much of this was accomplished with Herro being the Heat’s top option with Butler out. In 20 games without Butler this season, Herro’s averages (25.0 PPG, 6.1 APG, 5.8 RPG) are almost two points, more than 1.5 assists and a rebound higher than in the 24 games he has played next to Butler (23.5 PPG, 4.8 APG, 5.4 RPG). So, the takeaway is that if Butler is gone and another impact player isn’t brought in to replace him, Herro locks in as a top-30 fantasy hoops player with top-25 achievable upside.
Kel’el Ware, C
For those that grew up watching/reading Superman comics, you know that his real name is Kal El. Well, the Heat are welcoming in a rookie this season with a very similar name in Kel’el Ware. Without Butler, the team has reconfigured away from the elite, do-everything wing model with Butler handling an inside/outside approach. While Herro is the main “outside” threat, on the interior Ware has joined Bam Adebayo to give the Heat a high-upside duo to build around.
Ware was impressive live at the Las Vegas Summer League, but started his rookie season largely on the bench. His coming out party was earlier this month when the Heat paired Ware and Adebayo to try to slow down Victor Wembanyama… and it worked, with Ware having a huge game and the Heat winning by 21. Ware moved into the Heat’s starting lineup in the next game.
Stylistically, Ware has the combination of 3-point shooting and shot-blocking that has made players like Myles Turner so valuable in fantasy basketball circles, and he has shown it since he started getting major minutes. Starting with that game against the Spurs, Ware has averaged 18.6 PPG, 9.8 RPG, 2.0 3PG and 1.8 BPG in 34.6 MPG in his past five outings. He is still available in 72.0% of ESPN leagues, and if he is in your league you should pick him up right now. Ware is projected to be a top-75 player moving forward with top-50 upside.
Jaime Jaquez Jr., SG/SF
Jaquez was on my fantasy hoops radar entering this season after he turned in a strong, All-Rookie campaign last season. Through the first half of the season, however, Jaquez has taken a step back. After posting 11.9 PPG in 28.2 MPG as a rookie, Jaquez has fallen to 9.5 PPG in 23.8 MPG in Year 2.
But, much of this decline has occurred when Butler was playing. In 21 games with Butler, Jaquez has averaged only 8.3 PPG and 2.2 APG in 21.2 MPG, but in 19 games without Butler, Jaquez has produced 10.9 PPG and 3.4 APG in 26.7 MPG.
Across the board, that’s about a 25% increase in both opportunity and production from Jaquez without Butler. That at least gets Jaquez (available in 65.1% of ESPN leagues) back on the radar as a fantasy hoops streamer on a daily basis, and if he’s able to play himself into starter minutes for the Heat down the stretch he still has the type of upside to use in your flex spot.
What to do going forward
Boost the value of the Heat players from top to bottom.
Herro solidifies as a legit fantasy impact player that I would trade for if I could get him for his typical value. Expect him to outplay his previous levels moving forward.
Ware should be universally rostered. Trade for him if you can get him at “recent hot pickup from the waiver wire” prices. His actual value should be as an “every day fantasy hoops starter” moving forward.
It could be wise to take a chance on waiver wire players like Jaquez or Duncan Robinson (available in 84.0% of ESPN leagues) because they have the upside to make either solid streamers or potentially grow into fantasy flex options while Butler isn’t playing.
Source: espn.com