Fantasy basketball: Dr. A’s weekly risers and fallers

With most NBA teams having played just five games so far this season, the fantasy basketball season is still seeing very early days. Even so, there are a lot of early trends to consider, with both surprising and disappointing performances thus far.The slow starts of Ja Morant and Giannis Antetokounmpo are certainly concerning fantasy managers. Meanwhile, Bilal Coulibaly might be ready for a big season.

Let’s take a closer look at Week 2’s risers and fallers!

Risers

Bilal Coulibaly, SF, Washington Wizards (20.9% rostered in ESPN leagues): Coulibaly is on fire and flirting with top-40 fantasy value. He’s only four games in, but he’s been really good over his past three and has averaged 18.8 points, 5.8 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.5 steals and 2.0 3-pointers on 59.1% shooting for the season. He’s also been good at the free throw line (83.3%) and he’s getting 34 minutes per game. I thought next year would be Coulibaly’s breakout, but it appears to be happening now.

Nick Richards, C, Charlotte Hornets (23.1% rostered): Through four games, Richards is returning top-50 value with 13.5 points, 11.8 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 0.5 steals and 2.5 blocks on 65.6% shooting in 30.5 minutes per night. He’ll have to keep rebounding and blocking shots to hold his value and Mark Williams is always looming in the background. But, for now, Richards deserves a roster spot in most leagues.

Payton Pritchard, PG, Boston Celtics (22.3%): Pritchard had a monster line against the Bucks on Monday when he hit 10-of-14 shots, including eight 3-pointers, en route to 28 points, five rebounds, three assists and two steals. That performance pushed him into top-55 value and, while he’ll have plenty of off nights, he’ll also have plenty of big ones — especially if some of his teammates start dealing with injury woes.

Kevin Huerter, SG/SF, Sacramento Kings (17.6%): Huerter is having a nice season with top-60 fantasy value. He’s averaged just 12 points, but is shooting 55.9% from the floor with 4.8 3-pointers per game. Add in 3.0 rebounds, 1.0 blocks and 1.0 steals, and he’s off to a nice start to the season. I doubt the blocks will hold up, but the minutes and production have been there after a disappointing 2023-24 campaign.

Luguentz Dort, SG/SF, Oklahoma City Thunder (7.4%): Dort was an afterthought in fantasy drafts with the Thunder being so loaded with talent, but he’s held his own, posting 12.0 points, 3.0 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 0.8 blocks and 2.8 3-pointers while shooting 57.1% from the floor. He has yet to miss a free throw this season and is currently offering top-70 fantasy value. As long as he’s starting for Oklahoma City, he should probably be starting for fantasy teams, too.

Other guys who should be rostered in most leagues: Jalen Suggs (61.3%), Andrew Wiggins (57.6%), Norman Powell (52.8%), Santi Aldama (43.9%)

Fallers

Ja Morant, PG, Memphis Grizzlies (99.5%): Most of us thought Morant was going to come out of the gates on fire after his past few disastrous seasons, but it just hasn’t happened. He’s barely offering top-180 fantasy value and has been dealing with a thigh injury. Through four games, Morant has averaged just 19.0 points, 3.8 rebounds, 8.3 assists, 0.3 steals, 0.3 blocks and 0.8 3-pointers on 42.1% shooting. While the assists are at a career-high level, the rest of his numbers are way down from his career averages. You have to think he’ll get it turned around at some point, but the fact he’s off to such a slow start is a bit concerning. His fantasy managers might be ready to deal.

Giannis Antetokounmpo, PF/C, Milwaukee Bucks (99.9%): Antetokounmpo is struggling — and not just at the free throw line. In addition to the horrible 55.1% free throw shooting, he’s averaged 28.8 points, 11.8 rebounds, 6.3 assists, 0.3 steals and 0.5 blocks. The points, rebounds and assists are fine, but the lack of blocks and steals, along with the poor performance from the line, is crushing his value, as he’s barely cracking the top 200. Add in the fact he’s been on the injury report (knee) for every game and that he’s yet to hit a 3-pointer, and there’s reason for concern. That said, this does look like it might be a great time to make a move to acquire Antetokounmpo, as his value will never be lower. Just make sure you can handle that free throw percentage, which will be quite damaging all season long.

Anthony Edwards, SG/SF, Minnesota Timberwolves (99.9%): Edwards sits just inside the top 90 in nine-category rankings currently despite his having a ridiculous usage rate and averaging 30.0 points per game for the Timberwolves. He’s bringing in 6.4 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.5 blocks and doubling his career average with 5.5 3-pointers per game. He’s shooting 45.6% from the floor and hitting just 64% of his free throws. He’s a career 79% free throw shooter, so that number should improve soon, and he has stolen the ball 1.4 times per game for his career. Once his free throws start falling and he starts collecting steals, his value should climb quickly. That’s why now is a nice time to try to acquire Ant.

Tyrese Haliburton, PG/SG, Indiana Pacers (99.9%): Haliburton was bothered by a back injury last season and hasn’t looked quite right this year, either. The low point came against the Knicks in the second game of the season when Haliburton missed all eight of his shots and failed to score, finishing with just five assists, one rebound and one steal. His poor play is a big reason the Pacers sit with a 2-3 record, and he’s returning just top-100 value thus far. While it doesn’t currently feel like Haliburton has what it takes to become a top-10 player this season, it shouldn’t be long before he’s at least a top-30 fantasy performer. Now’s the time to make a move for him, especially if you need a point guard.

Jalen Johnson, PF, Atlanta Hawks (89.5%): Johnson is barely cracking fantasy’s top 120 through five games despite posting career highs in points (16.8), rebounds (11.0), assists (4.0), steals (1.8) and blocks (1.0). His field goal percentage is a paltry 41.3% and he’s struggling at the line, as well, hitting just 62.1%. His shots are going to start falling and the fact he’s doing so well in the counting stats is a very good sign. This is the ultimate moment to make a play to acquire Johnson. Make his manager an offer he/she can’t refuse.

Other notables who are struggling: Bam Adebayo, Chris Paul, Myles Turner, Malik Monk, Mike Conley, Lauri Markkanen, OG Anunoby, Brandin Podziemski, Scoot Henderson, Russell Westbrook, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

Source: espn.com