Fantasy basketball: Don’t be surprised if … we never see the old Joel Embiid again

Each week in the NBA is its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and fantasy managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true… don’t be surprised!

Don’t be surprised if … we never see the old Joel Embiid again

This section hurts a bit to type, because a healthy Embiid is such an appealing, wonderful player and his production for the past four-plus seasons may have warranted Hall of Fame attention, but the long-term picture is not a positive one. I have tiptoed around writing this section about the 2023 league MVP for months, hoping for the best when he was on the court, but it hasn’t been close to his best. The 76ers will likely shut Embiid and his balky left knee down for the rest of this embarrassing, lost season any minute.

It seems likely that Embiid needs more surgery on his knee, and let’s just say this is not a player who figured to age well into his 30s anyway. One must wonder if Embiid can even stay active long enough to finish out his new contract (which goes through 2026-27). Sorry if it sounds too pessimistic, but this is a player with a long, frustrating history of missing playing time for all sorts of ailments (some his fault, some not), and players rarely become more durable in their 30s. Perhaps a healthy Embiid plays 50-plus games during the 2025-26 season and averages better than 30 PPG, 10 RPG and 60 fantasy points. That would be awesome! It also feels unlikely.

Would I like to trade him for a current top-50 player? Oh yeah, of course.However, I already know floating his name in trade talks will bear more laughs than actual swap options, if any. Looking at colleague Andre Snellings’s excellent Fantasy basketball: Updated H2H points league player rankings, bring on Mikal Bridges, Jarrett Allen, Darius Garland and Austin Reaves. Surely nobody was thinking these were reasonable one-for-one player trades back in September. What about lesser options such as Jalen Duren, Fred VanVleet, Trey Murphy III and even Naz Reid? Wow, how things have changed. Get what you can, at this point. What a shame.

Don’t be surprised if … Naz Reid offers top 40 production next year

PF/C Reid is enjoying a tremendous February, averaging 20.3 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 1.5 BPG and more than 50 ESPN fantasy points per game (he is No. 19 on the 30-day Player Rater!). Unfortunately, this production is likely to be ending soon. PF Julius Randle (groin) is practicing and nearing a return, and C Rudy Gobert (back) should play this week as well. Reid is a useful option as a Minnesota Timberwolves reserve and he is rostered in more than 80% of leagues. Still, there is a big difference in his recent numbers (35.5 MPG!) and his season-long work as a reserve (13.6 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 25.5 MPG).

The good news for Reid is that it seems everyone believes Randle is an awkward fit for this offense (and especially its defense), so perhaps his brief time in Minnesota will come to an end this summer, and Reid (if he remains with the Timberwolves) can join the starting lineup and really thrive again. With comparable minutes/usage, Reid likely surpasses Randle for points league fantasy value. Even with his worst numbers in a decade, Randle’s 18.9 PPG, 7.2 RPG and 4.5 APG still matter quite a bit, though more in roto/categories formats. In standard points formats where turnovers play a larger role, Randle averages 32.8 points per game, barely ahead of Gobert and Reid, and Reid does this in far fewer minutes, boasting far more upside.

Fantasy managers should obviously look to trade Reid in redraft formats while he performs at a top-20 level, but if others are wise to the situation as well, keep him rostered. Even when his productive teammates return to play, one never knows the next time a starting opportunity will arrive. Perhaps Gobert remains bothered by back spasms for a few more weeks. Randle, while generally durable for 70-plus games annually prior to last season, may be a better team fit as a sixth man. Surely the franchise has discussed this. Regardless, Reid looks like an emerging star, and even if he must return to lesser minutes in the next six weeks, look to secure his services for next season.

Don’t be surprised if … Isaiah Collier is a future assist champion

A few years ago, current Utah Jazz PG Collier was supposed to be a high lottery pick and pending NBA superstar, but his one season at USC was quite underwhelming (and overshadowed by a current Los Angeles Lakers‘ bench/G League option). Then, the No. 29 pick in the draft – barely the first round – performed like he was destined for the G League over the first two months. I had rostered Collier in a deep dynasty, roto/categories format even before his season at USC. His early NBA days did not impress and, needing the roster spot for productive players to fill December lineups, I considered moving on. Utah employed the intriguing, young Keyonte George at point guard, and Collier, never a good shooter to start with, wasn’t in the team’s rotation – and this is a bad team. On top of that, he turned the ball over when he did play.

Without warning and without really earning it, Collier moved into the starting lineup in January and, while his shooting remains a mess, an exciting and excellent ball distributor has emerged. Collier averaged 7.5 APG in January, and he is at 9.3 APG in February. Only Trae Young, Nikola Jokic and Cade Cunningham average better than 9.0 APG for the season. Collier isn’t doing much else to aid fantasy teams for traditional scoring, steals or 3-pointers, and he turns the ball over at such a high rate that only a handful of players (Young, James Harden, Cunningham) average more for the season. Still, there’s something enticing here.

I sure am pleased I kept Collier around instead of investing in some quick fix I would have dropped weeks later, but other than assists, what is the statistical upside here? Is Collier, still only 20, going to become a passable shooter (he is shooting a ghastly 62.9% from the free throw line, too) and motivated defender by the fall? Perhaps not, but he can run an offense, and Utah must see how this turns out. Give Collier an offseason (or two) and perhaps he averages 16 PPG and 10 APG. Is there anyone like him right now? Chris Paul, Josh Giddey and Russell Westbrook are the only other players averaging 6.0 APG and fewer than 13.0 PPG. Is Giddey, a limited shooter himself, a reasonable comp? Well, invest there, too.

As for George, who I also roster in a keeper league, it is tough to be disappointed in his “demotion” to reserve status. George averaged a relevant 16.5 PPG, 5.8 APG and 2.8 3PG in 32 starts, earning 31.5 MPG. Over 15 games off the bench, George earns the same minutes to the decimal point (31.5 MPG), and provides 17.7 PPG, 6.3 APG and 2.5 3PG! This is astounding, really. Who is a better fantasy option off the bench? Reid averages 10 fewer minutes as a reserve. Anyway, George is only 21! Utah could play these rough shooting PGs together, or trade one of them, I suppose. Keep George and Collier around, because it is such an unusual situation.

Source: espn.com