Fantasy basketball: Don’t be surprised if … the Cavaliers finish with four top-25 options
Each week in the NBA is its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and fantasy managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true … don’t be surprised!
Don’t be surprised if … four Cleveland Cavaliers are top-25 fantasy options
Unlike the West-leading Oklahoma City Thunder, who boast a player so great he may win league and fantasy MVP honors (PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander), the Cavaliers are more balanced. Oklahoma City’s No. 2 fantasy scorer is PF/SF/C Jalen Williams (No. 15 overall), but nobody else is among the top 100. C Isaiah Hartenstein sure has been surprisingly great since his delayed debut, but the eventual return of C Chet Holmgren certainly will eat into his numbers, so fantasy managers, take note. The awesome Thunder, looking for revenge on Thursday following last week’s loss at home to the awesome Cavaliers, are currently carried by two players.
The Cavaliers enter Thursday with PF/C Evan Mobley, PG Darius Garland and SG/PG Donovan Mitchell each among the 25 players having eclipsed 1,500 ESPN fantasy points on the season. It is, frankly, outstanding production combined with durability, though none are noted as MVP contenders, in part because there are four stellar performers on one team. Don’t overlook the fourth member of the crew, C Jarrett Allen, for he isn’t far off, either. Allen has averaged 36.4 fantasy points per game, and 39.6 fantasy points over the past 30 days, putting up 15.1 PPG and 9.8 RPG. He is shooting 73.9% from the field in January.
At this point, it wouldn’t be so wild if Allen joins his pals as a top-25 fantasy provider (he’s currently No. 31 on the ESPN Player Rater), and let’s think about how unlikely this is. Only one Cavalier (Mitchell) was a top-25 pick in ESPN ADP, with Mobley a fourth-rounder, Garland in Round 5 and Allen as the No. 50 pick overall. We liked Allen on draft day, but he was a more productive fantasy option last season, when he scored 16.5 PPG (it’s 14.1 PPG this season). In fact, Allen, thanks to his participating in 77 games (Mitchell played in only 55 games), led all Cavaliers in fantasy points last season — the only Cavalier among the top-40 scorers. Allen thriving really is not a surprise at all.
When it comes to Cavaliers, fantasy managers may want to know how to proceed over the next few months. It seems unlikely this franchise will overtly rest players in anticipation of the playoffs. This team may aim to reach 70 wins, or more. History matters. The franchise record is 66 wins in 2008-09, but even LeBron James couldn’t get the No. 1 East seed past Dwight Howard and No. 3 Orlando that year.
I would trade for any of these four Cavaliers as if they were top-25 players, motivated to continue thriving, and also keep an eye on SF/SG Max Strus, who is showing clear signs of deep-league fantasy relevance of late.
Don’t be surprised if … Malik Beasley leads the NBA in 3-pointers
Beasley’s former Timberwolves teammate, the esteemed SG/SF Anthony Edwards, currently leads the association in 3-pointers made and perhaps he will keep on firing them up at this astounding pace, but that seems a bit unlikely, especially with SG/PG Donte DiVincenzo now starting and finding his shot. Yes, Edwards dropped 10 3-pointers in a recent game against Beasley and the Pistons, but he also hit nary a 3-pointer in a home game with Memphis. Edwards shot 38% on 3-pointers in December, averaging 3.1 per game. It’s still a lot, but his other months don’t look like that. It may be a harbinger.
Meanwhile, Beasley, a journeyman on his sixth NBA team (and with only 11 starts this season), drained 4.6 3-pointers per game in December. He enters Thursday having hit four or more in four consecutive games. Only Edwards boasts more threes this season. Unlike Edwards, who gets criticized for his new and inefficient offensive approach and leads an underachieving team, this is Beasley’s expected role — to shoot as many 3-pointers as possible from the bench. Beasley ranks third among active players in 3FG attempts per 36 minutes and per 100 possessions. He is elite at this skill and escapes notice from his rough shooting games.
The surprising Pistons sure seem intent on earning their first East playoff spot this decade and, for that, PG/SG Cade Cunningham deserves the most credit. Cunningham is already enjoying his best season, and his statistics are even better so far in January, coinciding with SG/PG Jaden Ivey breaking his leg. SF/PF Ausar Thompson has become a starter, and while his overall game remains a bit rough, there’s nothing wrong with his defense. Thompson piles on the steals. There is real fantasy upside here. With Beasley, we know what he is, and it is quite valuable. He’s still available in more than 75% of ESPN standard leagues.
One more thing: Warriors PG Stephen Curry led the league in 3-pointers last season. The last time a Warrior did not lead the league in the category (Curry or Klay Thompson) was 2019-20, when the Rockets’ James Harden did so and Curry played in only five games. Harden led the league for three years, and prior to that, Curry led for five. So, the last time someone other than either a Warrior or a Rocket led the league in 3-pointers was … Orlando’s Ryan Anderson in 2011-12. He made 166 3-pointers. Edwards entered Wednesday with 163. Just thought you needed to know.
Don’t be surprised if … Jordan Poole finishes as a top-50 player
OK, so where was this performance last season? Fair question, and for many fantasy managers, it was asked in an angry, bitter way. Still, Poole’s second season in Washington continues to go well, as he has averaged 21.5 PPG, 3.6 3PG and 1.5 SPG, each a career-high rate. Year 1 in Washington went poorly and, even now, most folks probably expected something like 25.0 PPG from a fellow who is rarely afraid to shoot, but this version of Poole isn’t so bad as he enters Thursday averaging 35.5 ESPN fantasy points per game, No. 65 in the league. That isn’t top 50, but Poole is still off to a strong start in January.
There are reasons to doubt that Poole improves in the second half of the season, but perhaps they aren’t so valid. The Wizards are better off losing games and increasing the odds of earning the top draft pick (which should be generational talent Cooper Flagg from Duke), but losing doesn’t stop individuals from scoring. The Wizards have lost seven games in a row entering Thursday against Phoenix. No NBA team boasts fewer wins. In addition, PF/SF Kyle Kuzma recently returned from injury, which figured to cut into Poole’s usage/shots. So far, it hasn’t. Similarly, youngsters C/PF Alexandre Sarr, SF/SG Bilal Coulibaly and PG/SG Carlton Carrington are learning, but not preventing Poole from scoring.
The Wizards should look even younger after the pending trade deadline, with C Jonas Valanciunas, PG/SG Malcolm Brogdon and Kuzma being the obvious targets to go. Poole has an exorbitant contract. He is likely to remain a Wizard. Frankly, with the organization playing it safe with Sarr and the youngsters, Poole may be more likely to play regularly and produce numbers. Perhaps you don’t trade for him in fantasy expecting top-50 performance, but he hasn’t been far off from that range for the first half of this season. It’s just another reminder that fantasy managers really should not hold grudges.
Source: espn.com