Fantasy basketball: Don’t be surprised if … the Cavaliers boast four top-25 fantasy options
Each week in the NBA is its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and fantasy managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true … don’t be surprised!
Don’t be surprised if … two Bucks make scoring history
Perhaps you don’t know much about the 1961-62 Los Angeles Lakers. I don’t. Long before my time. That team lost in the NBA Finals to the Boston Celtics — not the first time it happened, not the last — and along the way, future Hall of Famers Elgin Baylor and Jerry West piled on the points. Baylor averaged 38.3 PPG. West, in his second NBA season, finished at 30.8 PPG. I don’t recall their fantasy value, but it was probably excellent. It was also the only time a pair of NBA teammates each averaged 30 PPG in a full season.
This season’s Milwaukee Bucks play their fifth game of the season Thursday at Memphis, and so far, two players are handling nearly half the scoring load for the team, which is a bit preposterous. You’ve heard of PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo and PG Damian Lillard. The former checks in at 28.8 PPG, the latter at 28 PPG. No other Bucks are averaging as many as 12 PPG. It’s not like Antetokounmpo and Lillard haven’t averaged 30 PPG before, just not together. Antetokounmpo has done it the past two seasons, Lillard achieved it in two seasons for the Portland Trail Blazers.
Some view Lillard’s relatively disappointing debut season with the Bucks as a sign of him advancing in age and quickly losing ability. He’s 34. We knew Lillard’s usage would fall from his Portland days, probably his efficiency as well, but there were other factors contributing. He joined the Bucks late, just before October, and dealt with personal issues during the season. The team employed multiple coaches, too, and we can debate whether the organization even upgraded there. Regardless, many of us expected Lillard to bounce back to more typical statistics this season.
So far, Antetokounmpo and Lillard have had to score, because nobody else is doing so. Then again, C Brook Lopez and SG Gary Trent Jr. probably won’t shoot 36% from the field for long. Continue investing, though not for the scoring. PF Bobby Portis remains reliable. SF Khris Middleton (ankle) no longer is, but at least he should make his season debut soon. Even if other Bucks step up, though, Antetokounmpo and Lillard still may have to average 30 PPG to keep this team in the top four in the East. Fantasy managers would surely welcome it.
Don’t be surprised if … the Cavaliers boast four top 25 fantasy options
Cavaliers PF/C Evan Mobley, the No. 3 pick in the 2021 NBA draft, was always supposed to be a better fantasy option than he showed in his first three seasons. Mobley was fine, a helpful fantasy option, but certainly not a star. The Cavaliers have stars. SG/PG Donovan Mitchell averaged 26.6 PPG last season and earned his fifth All-Star nod. PG Darius Garland was an underrated top-5 option at the point in consecutive seasons prior to last year. C Jarrett Allen is No. 3 all time in field goal percentage and has averaged a double-double in three separate seasons.
Mobley entered this season known for his defense, mostly, and for underachieving in fantasy. However, expectations were a bit higher for this season, after player and team agreed on a lucrative five-year contract. Fantasy managers didn’t know what to believe, but they followed the ESPN rankings and projections and made Mobley a top-50 pick in average live drafts, ahead of Allen and Garland. So far, managers have been rewarded, as a more confident, assertive Mobley is scoring at a career-high rate, with more free throws than ever, and plenty of rebounds, blocks and steals.
There is a path to all four of these Cavaliers finishing not only as top-50 fantasy options, but perhaps in the top 25, as one week into the season they are all either in that range, or close. Mobley is leading the way, perhaps an outlier based on past results, but he is the only one in this crew with an untapped statistical floor. Mobley can average 20 PPG and 10 RPG, even playing alongside Allen, a limited scorer. The combination of blocks, steals and 3-pointers is unique, if Mobley can continue shining in these areas. The other Big 3 Cavaliers we don’t really worry about.
Pay attention to see if Mobley’s sudden aggressiveness on offense, which has led to more free throws, continues. Mobley shot 71% on free throws a season ago, representing a career best, but that remained below league average. Entering Wednesday’s game versus the Lakers, Mobley was hitting 88% on free throws. Perhaps 15 makes in 17 attempts are way too small a sample, but players can improve in myriad areas in their fourth season. Mobley is only 23. He isn’t averaging 20 PPG or 10 RPG yet, but it remains possible.
Don’t be surprised if … LeBron James plays in all the games
OK, so I may be the wrong person to analyze this, since a large part of the reason James makes my “Do Not Draft” list each season is because of the likelihood he will miss considerable games, thus he can’t provide the reasonable value being a top-20 pick demands. Few can debate what statistics the 39-year-old James provides. His scoring was down to 25.7 PPG last season, but that remains strong, especially in concert with the rebounds, assists, steals and shooting. James played in 71 games last season, his most since 2017-18, his final season with the Cavaliers, and it seemed like enough. He missed an average of 26% of Lakers games during his first six seasons there.
Why are we discussing this? James recently told reporters he plans on playing in every Lakers game this season. He isn’t Joel Embiid, of course, but can we take this optimism seriously? Stuff happens over a six-month, 82-game NBA season, but this also isn’t like baseball, where we can count the number of players that play all 162 games on one hand. There were 17 NBA players to appear in 82 or more games (Buddy Hield got traded, played in 84 games!) last season. In 2022-23, 10 players missed nary a game. A few of them were on the other side of 30. None were, like James, closing in on 40.
Still, while we shouldn’t expect the magnificent James to participate in every Lakers game, we must respect this optimism. Perhaps he comes close and tops the 71 games from last season. That’s enough to avoid the “Do Not Draft” list. I even traded for James in a keeper league, going all-in for this season. It’s early, but his minutes and production are down, however I remain optimistic. James averaged 30.3 PPG, 8.2 RPG and 6.2 APG during the 2021-22 season. That was fantastic, but it was only 56 games. Would we prefer 24 PPG, 7 RPG, 7 APG over 77 games this season? Well, yeah, that works, too.
Source: espn.com