Fantasy basketball: Don’t be surprised if … Jalen Johnson ends up a top-20 fantasy option

Each week in the NBA is its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and fantasy managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true … don’t be surprised!

Don’t be surprised if … Jalen Johnson ends up a top-20 fantasy option

Johnson continues to improve in his fourth NBA season. On Tuesday, in a surprising road win over the Boston Celtics, Johnson scored 62 ESPN fantasy points, registering his first career triple-double. The Atlanta Hawks were missing PG Trae Young (Achilles), and Johnson picked up the playmaking slack, but since he averages 5.3 APG anyway, it wasn’t a big surprise to add more assists. Johnson previously broke out last season, averaging 16 PPG, 8.7 RPG and 3.6 APG, but I think we knew that the numbers would keep rising after the Hawks traded PG/SG Dejounte Murray during the offseason.

The current version of Johnson isn’t merely improving — he may end up on one on the all-NBA teams. Only three qualified players average 20 points, 10 rebounds and five assists (Nikola Jokic, Domantas Sabonis and Giannis Antetokounmpo). Johnson is just shy of joining this special crew (19 PPG), but he will get there. He also averages 1.5 steals and 3-pointers per game. Sabonis and Antetokounmpo do not. Basically, Jokic and Johnson are about to form their own very exclusive, very valuable club.

There are just a few reasons for concern with Johnson’s statistics, but after starting slowly, he has shot better the past two weeks from the field — from deep range and the free throw line — and he has lowered his turnover rate a bit. More usage generally translates to more turnovers, and more 3-point attempts tends to lower the overall field goal shooting, but Johnson should adjust. Even playing alongside usage monster Young, Johnson has been the team’s most impressive player so far. Expect him to only keep improving, and if Young misses more games, Johnson may outscore him for fantasy.

One more note on the Hawks: SG/PG Dyson Daniels, rostered in fewer than 65% of leagues, delivered a wild 19 steals over the team’s past three games, and he now averages 3.6 SPG. Nobody else averages more than 2.3 SPG. Obviously, what Daniels is achieving in this category is quite unsustainable, since nobody has averaged 3.0 SPG in a full season since Alvin Robertson for the 1990-91 Bucks. Dyson is among ESPN’s most-added players, but he isn’t doing much else than pilfering the basketball. Some improvement in shooting and rebounding may earn him top-50 status in fantasy scoring for five more months.

Don’t be surprised if … Buddy Hield outscores Klay Thompson

Tuesday night was fun as Thompson famously returned to the Bay Area as his Dallas Mavericks lost a close one to PG Stephen Curry and the rest of the current Golden State Warriors. Thompson, an eighth-round pick in ESPN average live drafts and rostered in 80% of ESPN standard leagues, hit six 3-pointers on his way to 22 points, tying his season best. Thompson produced 31 ESPN fantasy points, his most since the team’s opener three weeks prior. While we have been critical of Thompson’s actual fantasy value for a decade, it was nice to see him play well in his return game.

In the same game, Hield, ostensibly Thompson’s far more affordable and younger replacement for Golden State, hit a pair of 3-pointers in eight attempts, scoring 14 traditional points and 24 ESPN fantasy points. Hield grabbed one rebound and delivered nary an assist. OK, so Thompson may have won this individual battle, but don’t get the wrong idea: Hield is rostered in more fantasy leagues because he is enjoying the far greater fantasy season so far — and many people believe Hield can sustain his numbers.

It’s a fair point. Hield has started only one game for the Warriors, though he averages 32.8 fantasy points per game. Entering Tuesday, Hield led the Warriors in fantasy points, but only because Curry had missed three games last week. Hield is among the league leaders in 3-pointers, and he has been a strong eighth-round (same as Thompson) bargain in ESPN leagues. Thompson, a starter in all 11 of his games and playing six more minutes per game than Hield, averages 24.6 fantasy points per game.

Fantasy managers may be thinking that this hierarchy changes soon, that Hield falls off and Thompson improves. Don’t expect Thompson to improve. Neither shooter — that is what they are — offers much else to fantasy managers than 3-pointers, and Hield is certainly doing it better so far. Thompson, fighting for usage and shots with top stars Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, averages 3.2 3PG. Only two Mavericks average more traditional points, but five — including both centers — average more fantasy points.

Hield is the No. 2 scorer on a far more balanced Warriors team, and while his minutes and production have declined recently with Curry healthy, and because coach Steve Kerr continues to utilize his league-leading depth, value remains. The numbers are down, though, and fantasy managers should not trade top-50 value for Hield expecting a repeat of his recent stretch in which he scored 20 or more traditional points in four consecutive games, hitting 20 3-pointers in that span. PF/C Draymond Green should still average more fantasy points than Hield does.

As for Hield versus Thompson? It hasn’t been close so far, and that seems likely to continue. Advantage Hield.

Don’t be surprised if … dropping Jimmy Butler is the wrong move

Butler has been a reliable fantasy option for more than a decade, when he broke out for the Chicago Bulls in his fourth NBA season (2014-15) for 20 PPG. He moved around a bit after his Chicago years, but he has remained a strong fantasy option during his first five Miami Heat seasons, averaging 21.2 PPG, 6.1 RPG and 5.7 APG. OK, so Butler can frustrate fantasy managers by missing 20-plus games a season, but generally, as top-50 picks go, he has been worth it. He finished last season averaging 38.9 ESPN fantasy points per game, 42nd in the NBA, though he was 69th in total points.

We have seen the end of Butler’s run as a early-round fantasy building block, and now, depending on just how much playing time he misses, more and more fantasy managers may move on. Don’t do it. Butler has missed two games due to a sprained ankle, though perhaps he plays Friday against the Indiana Pacers. Butler, 35, has rarely cared about missing November games (or December, January, and so on until the playoffs near), and he has earned that right. Still, fantasy managers need numbers, and Butler still delivers.

Butler played only seven minutes in his most recent game, so that tweaks his averages a bit, but he had averaged 18.1 PPG, 5.2 RPG and 5.2 APG over 33.8 MPG entering that game against the Denver Nuggets, and there isn’t much wrong with those numbers. Yes, Butler isn’t attempting as many field goals, but that could easily change when he returns, and he will not shoot an aberrant 15.4% from 3-point range for long. He hit at 41.4% last season.

Butler isn’t young, and he isn’t LeBron James, so some statistical decline shouldn’t surprise us, but really, there hasn’t been much. Be patient. We can debate Butler deserving his top-50 draft day status missing so many games annually, but when he plays, the numbers are there.

Source: espn.com