Betting the NBA Finals: Bets to make on Game 5

Game 5 of the 2025 NBA Finals tips off tonight as the Oklahoma City Thunder take on the Indiana Pacers at 8:30 p.m. ET at Paycom Center.

The Thunder evened up the series at 2-2 with a come-from-behind win in Game 4, led by the 35 points of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to go with Jalen Williams’ 27 and Alex Caruso’s 20.

So what can we expect in this pivotal Game 5? Will the Pacers find a way to play their best on the road yet again? Or should we look for the Thunder to keep momentum on their side?

Here are our analysts’ bets that stand out.

Odds are as of publication time. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET

Bets for NBA Finals Game 5

T.J. McConnell over 10.5 points and assists (-125). This has been a popular play, and even though it didn’t hit in Game 4, let’s run it back. McConnell has gone over this line in three of four games this series. He played 18 minutes in Game 4 — slightly above the 16.4 minutes per game he’s averaged this postseason. That’s encouraging, as were his 10 potential assists, even though he finished with just two assists and eight points. One key observation is that McConnell didn’t get minutes late in the game. Let’s see if that changes in Game 5. McConnell has also cleared this line in five straight road games. — Moody

Pacers +9.5 (-110). Even though the Thunder are playing at home and have momentum heading into Game 5, this spread feels a bit too large. The Pacers let Game 4 slip through their fingers and will be eager to respond. Indiana is 22-13-2 against the spread following a loss this season and 19-12 as an away underdog. Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam have been excellent throughout the series and should play well enough on the road to keep this game closer than the spread suggests. — Moody

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 33.5 points and assists (-130). Two trends intersect in this pick. In his last nine home games, SGA has scored at least 31 points in each game while averaging 34.2 PPG, and has scored 34 or more in four straight and five of his last six. Similarly, in six games against the Pacers this season including playoffs, SGA has averaged 34.8 PPG with at least 34 points scored in four of the six games. — Snellings

Pascal Siakam over 26.5 total points and rebounds (-110). This is another pick where two trends intersect. In his last 12 playoffs games, including the first four against the Thunder, Siakam has averaged 22.2 PPG and 6.3 RPG (28.5 P+R) with at least 27 combined in eight of the 12 games. Similarly, in six games against the Thunder this season, Siakam has notched 27 or more P+R in four of the six, including in three of the four games in this series. — Snellings

Tyrese Haliburton over 2.5 total turnovers (-140). The Thunder have been turning Haliburton over all series. Though he had the best assist-to-turnover ratio in the NBA this season at 5.6, Haliburton has averaged 4.3 TO/game in these Finals with at least three turnovers in every game. The Pacers need Haliburton to be aggressive as an offense-creator in order to defeat the Thunder, but the added aggression comes with increased turnover risk and has had Haliburton over this line in every game in the series. — Snellings

Projections and Injury Reports

Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Odds by ESPN BET

Indiana Pacers at Oklahoma City Thunder
8:30 p.m. ET on ABC

Line: Pacers +9.5 (-110) | Thunder -9.5 (-110)
Money line: Pacers +320 | Thunder -425
Total: 224.5 (-110 O, -110 U)
BPI Projection: Thunder by 3.3, straight up 61%, 225.8 total points.

Injury Report:
Pacers: Jarace Walker, (OUT – Ankle); Isaiah Jackson, (OFS – Achilles)
Thunder: Nikola Topic, (OFS – Knee)

Source: espn.com