Everything that happens in sports has some additional context when viewed from a sports betting perspective. From season-changing injuries to record-setting moments and so much more, the sports news cycle will constantly and significantly affect the sports betting industry.
Our betting buzz file, with contributions from David Purdum, Doug Greenberg and others, aims to provide fans a look at the sports betting stories that are driving the conversation.
Key links: Sports betting home | NFL odds page | College football odds page | ESPN BET 
Nov. 15: How oddsmakers are handicapping a wide-open NBA ROY race
Doug Greenberg: As one of the most anticipated rookies in NBA history, Victor Wembanyama entered the 2023-24 season as the odds-on favorite to take home Rookie of the Year — and he ultimately won it unanimously last spring. However, with no clear-cut favorite entering the current campaign, handicapping the award is much more dubious than last season.
“There’s a lot of guys in this mix,” DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN. “There are guys that could fluctuate and be in the top three this week, and be out of it the following week. So we just continue to keep an eye on it.”
Memphis Grizzlies center Zach Edey entered the season as the betting favorite at +300, per ESPN BET odds. So far, he hasn’t done anything to hurt his case with double-digit points per game and strong defense. However, especially in a wide-open race, awards betting markets are largely predicated on “big moments” and no one has had bigger ones lately than Philadelphia 76ers guard Jared McCain.
The Duke product began the campaign as a +4000 underdog and was as long as 100-1 on Oct. 25. Then, on Tuesday, following a 27-point outburst in his second game with over 30 minutes, McCain came all the way down to +1100 before eventually taking the odds lead on Thursday after dropping a season-high 34 points in his first career start.
“You have to look at who’s been getting the ball lately and who the team is starting to give those minutes to,” Avello said.
That said, the race is far from over and will likely come down to who can do the most with the minutes they’re given. Washington’s Carlton Carrington and Atlanta’s Zaccharie Risacher (2024’s No. 1 draft pick), are both in the top three for rookie minutes played and are tied for third on ESPN BET’s ROY odds board at +550. Edey, 10th in minutes, is second on the odds board at +500.
Other players getting significant action at sportsbooks include Dalton Knecht (+1600), Stephon Castle (+1800), Reed Sheppard (+8000) and, of course, Bronny James (300-1), who has “no chance to win this,” according to Avello, but is still the largest liability at DraftKings and BetMGM because of his extremely long odds. Anything can happen, though, and books are ready to adjust whenever the winds change in this tight race.
“Certainly, you’re going to keep making adjustments each and every day,” Avello said.
Nov. 14: Odds-defying Commanders underdogs vs. Eagles
David Purdum: The Washington Commanders have overcome long odds to put themselves in the mix, but are underdogs again when they travel to Philadelphia on Thursday to take on the Eagles in a battle of the top two favorites in the NFC East.
The Commanders began Thursday as 3.5-point underdogs against the Eagles. The line opened as high as Philadelphia -4 but settled at -3.5 early in the week. It will be the fifth time in its first 10 games that Washington has been an underdog. The Commanders’ 7-2 record against the spread this season is the best in the league.
They entered the season at 11-1 to win the NFC East at ESPN BET, tied with the New York Giants for the longest odds in the division. Two months later, the Commanders are at +185, close behind the Eagles, who are the favorites in the division at -225.
Sportsbooks had the over/under on Washington’s regular-season wins set at 6.5. The Commanders were the first team this season to go over their win total, something they accomplished with a Week 9 win over the Giants.
Quarterback Jayden Daniels, the overwhelming favorite for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, has the same odds to win MVP (13-1 at ESPN BET) as Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts. Daniels was 200-1 to win MVP entering the season.
Daniels and Hurts also have similar passing yards prop odds in Thursday’s game with the over/under sitting around 225 yards for each quarterback.
Washington head coach Dan Quinn has moved to the top of the odds to be NFL Coach of the Year at ESPN BET.
Nov. 12: Sportsbook liability Colorado takes lead in Big 12 odds
Doug Greenberg: For the first time under head coach Deion Sanders, the Colorado Buffaloes are favored to win their conference.
Colorado took its first odds lead to win the Big 12 at +130 following Saturday’s 41-27 road victory over Texas Tech, the Buffaloes’ sixth win in a seven-game span that has seen them cover in every single game, per ESPN BET odds (the only outright loss was to Kansas State, but they narrowly covered as 3.5-point underdogs). Colorado was never favored to win the Pac-12 last season before making the jump over to the Big 12 this year.
CU began the season at +3000 to win the conference and has shortened during the cover streak. DraftKings reports that Sanders’ squad was down to +1300 ahead of the loss to K-State, +2000 just after and has been steadily shortening ever since. Colorado is also nearly even money to make the College Football Playoff after entering the campaign at around +1400.
The presence of Sanders and electrifying players like Travis Hunter (the current Heisman favorite at +100) has made CU a popular wager in the futures market.
Since the market opened, ESPN BET has taken 14.5% of the bets and 17.8% of the handle for the Buffaloes to win the Big 12, third- and second-best in the Big 12, respectively. However, since Colorado’s loss to Kansas State on Oct. 12, those figures ballooned to 37.2% of bets and 44.9% of handle, both tops in the conference. BetMGM says Colorado is its biggest liability for both the Big 12 and national championship.
CU’s odds surge comes at the expense of the BYU Cougars, who are undefeated and atop the conference standings but show +175 odds to win it; BYU was an even longer shot than Colorado to win the Big 12, as long as 150-1 at one point this season, per DraftKings. That said, the Cougars have received only modest support from bettors, taking 28.2% of bets and 15.8% of handle since mid-October at ESPN BET.
Nov. 12: Celtics, Cavs top betting favorites in NBA Cup
David Purdum: The Boston Celtics remain the clear-cut favorites to win the Emirates NBA Cup, but the next tier of contenders is shifting ahead of the in-season tournament.
The NBA Cup tips off Tuesday with an eight-game slate, highlighted by the Dallas Mavericks visiting the Golden State Warriors in Klay Thompson‘s first game against his former team, and Joel Embiid’s return for the Philadelphia 76ers, who take on the New York Knicks.
The Celtics, who host the Atlanta Hawks on Tuesday, are the favorites to win the NBA Cup, at +380 at ESPN BET. They’re +255 to repeat as NBA champions.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are the second-favorites to win the Cup, listed at +650 at ESPN BET, ahead of the Denver Nuggets, Minnesota Timberwolves and Knicks, who are each +900. The 76ers and Milwaukee Bucks, who have each struggled in the first month of the season, are 20-1 long shots to win the Cup.
The Cavaliers, who opened at 22-1 to win the Cup at ESPN BET, have won their first 12 games, and oddsmakers believe they have the makeup of a team motivated to win the in-season tournament.
Jeff Sherman, a longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker who oversees NBA odds for the Westgate SuperBook, said he took into account how meaningful winning the in-season tournament might be to some teams. Sherman pointed to the Cavaliers and said, “you could have some smaller-market teams put more of an emphasis on this.”
The Oklahoma City Thunder were the second-favorites to win the NBA Cup before star Chet Holmgren was lost to a hip injury. Sherman said he moved the Thunder’s Cup odds from 5-1 to 12-1 after Holmgren’s injury and also adjusted the Phoenix Suns’ odds from 12-1 to 30-1 after it was revealed Kevin Durant would miss some games during the in-season tournament.
“You’ve had a lot of fluctuations based on injuries,” Sherman said.
The tournament features three groups in each conference. The Knicks, Bucks and Celtics are the favorites in each group. The Cavaliers are in East Group C with the Celtics. The Timberwolves, Thunder and Nuggets are favorites in their groups in the Western Conference.
The defending-NBA Cup champion Los Angeles Lakers are 16-1 to repeat.
Nov. 11: Chiefs deliver for live bettors with blocked field goal
Doug Greenberg and David Purdum: Lining up for a potential 35-yard winning field goal with one second left, the Denver Broncos were commanding favorites to finally beat the Kansas City Chiefs, who were big underdogs at sportsbooks at that point.
A spokesperson for DraftKings sportsbook said live bets came in ahead of the kick on both teams, the Broncos at -2,500, and the Chiefs at 12-1. The sportsbook did not disclose the amount of the bets, but screenshots of $100 and $50 on the Chiefs at 12-1 circulated on social media.
Live bet the Chiefs right before the FG block to turn $100 into $1.2K 😲
My goodness.
(the_bond_villain/IG @DKSportsbook) pic.twitter.com/LkFUPHRJvb
— br_betting (@br_betting) November 10, 2024
Caesars Sportsbook vice president Craig Mucklow told ESPN that his shop “wrote a lot of business” on both teams ahead of the kick.
Kansas City plowed through the middle of the Broncos’ line and blocked Will Lutz’s field to secure another close win and remain unbeaten at 9-0. The Chiefs are the first team to block a potential game-winning field goal of 35 yards or shorter on the last play of the fourth quarter since 1999, according to ESPN Research.
It was their 12th straight win in a one-score game, tied for the second-longest such streak in NFL history, behind only the 2003-04 New England Patriots, who won 13 consecutive one-score games. And it dinged sportsbooks.
While the Chiefs did not cover the 7-point spread, the outright win kept money-line parlays that included popular favorites alive. The Chiefs money-line was the second-most popular parlay leg at ESPN BET.
Joe Brennan, the head of Prime Sportsbook, said his shop took more action on the Broncos to cover the spread, but also had money on teasers bets on the Chiefs -1.
“It was a memorable swing,” Brennan told ESPN on Sunday night. “We actually had more guys holding Denver tickets (anywhere from +7 to +8.5, which we would have happily paid in order to knock down the litany of Kansas City teasers. Instead of doing that we got stuck paying them both. That hurt.”
Daniels, Williams end rookie QB cover streak
Entering Week 10, rookie quarterbacks were 11-0 against the spread as favorites. Jayden Daniels’ Washington Commanders and Caleb Williams’ Chicago Bears had the opportunity to extend that streak, but neither escaped with even a straight up win.
ESPN BET saw heavy action on the Pittsburgh Steelers throughout the week, who ultimately saw their underdog spread pushed down from their opener at +2.5 to +1.5 by kickoff against the Commanders. Ultimately, Pittsburgh pulled out the outright win 28-27, ending Washington’s eight-game cover streak, its longest in a single season of the Super Bowl era, per ESPN Research.
It was the Steelers’ fifth straight SU win as an underdog and the 50th of head coach Mike Tomlin’s career. Tomlin is now 58-32-3 ATS and 50-43 (.538) outright as an underdog, the second-best winning percentage of the Super Bowl era in that scenario behind only Matt LaFleur (18-13, .581).
Meanwhile, the Bears entered their home matchup with the New England Patriots as 6.5-point favorites, their largest ever favorite role under head coach Matt Eberflus. They promptly failed to score a touchdown en route to a 19-3 defeat.
The rookie quarterback on the other side, Drake Maye, notched his third straight cover and second outright win in that span, though the Patriots are still waiting to be favorites this season.
Odds & Ends
Best ATS Records This Season
Detroit Lions (7-1) (play Sunday night)
Washington Commanders (8-2)
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2)
Los Angeles Chargers (7-2)
Worst ATS Records This Season
Tennessee Titans (1-8)
Dallas Cowboys (2-7)
Seattle Seahawks (2-7)
Miami Dolphins (2-6) (play Monday)
Other notes
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Underdogs were 9-3 against the spread this week, ahead of the Lions-Texans game, which was setting up to be a big decision for sportsbooks. Unders were 8-4 heading into “Sunday Night Football.”
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Caesars Sportsbook said Lions-Texans had attracted the second-most money of any NFL games this week, behind Bengals-Ravens on Thursday. “[We’re] certainly Texans fans tonight,” Mucklow said.
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The Titans are an NFL-worst 1-8 against the spread after failing to cover as 8-point underdogs in a 27-17 loss to the Chargers.
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The Vikings became the second team to go over their season-win total (6.5) with their 12-7 victory over the Jaguars.
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Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson was the most popular bet to score a touchdown at multiple sportsbooks. Jefferson finished with 48 yards on five receptions without a touchdown. Jefferson was a -140 favorite to score.
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49ers running back Christian McCaffery attracted plenty of support from bettors in his return to the field. McCaffery, who was -250 favorite to find the end zone, finished with 119 total yards, but no touchdowns.
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The most-heavily bet player prop at DraftKings was Saints running back Alvin Kamara to have over 5.5 receptions. Kamara finished with five catches for 54 yards in the Saints’ 20-17 upset of the Falcons.
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The total in the Titans-Chargers game closed at 40.5. A Tennessee touchdown with 49 seconds remaining pushed the final score to 27-17 and gave an over to Los Angeles, who entered Week 10 at 7-1 to the under, the highest under percentage in the league.
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Aaron Jones’ rushing attempts prop opened at 16.5 and fluctuated throughout the week before settling at 17.5 on FanDuel. Jones exited the game with an injury after 13 carries but returned in the fourth quarter, notching his 17th carry on the final play of the Vikings’ 12-7 win over the Jaguars.
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Following reports of Dak Prescott potentially ending his season with hamstring surgery, DraftKings dropped the Cowboys’ odds of winning the NFC East from +900 to +3000 and to win the Super Bowl from +8000 to 300-1; following Dallas’ big loss to Philadelphia, that number is down to 500-1.
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Twenty-three teams in the Super Bowl era have started 9-0. The 2024 Chiefs, 1990 49ers and 1969 Rams are the only three of those teams to have a losing record against the spread. The previous two did not reach the Super Bowl.
Source: espn.com