2025 NBA free agency -The winners and losers of this offseason so far

Three days into the start of official free agent negotiations, and a week after the draft, the NBA has witnessed its typical, seasonal whirlwind of activity. Nine-figure surprises! Intriguing trades! A record-setting contract and drama swirling around multitime MVPs!

To make sense of all the madness, let’s identify the biggest winners and losers of the summer so far. As the offseason progresses, there’s still time for some of these designations to change; in recent years, the likes of Donovan Mitchell, Damian Lillard and Karl-Anthony Towns weren’t traded until September or October.

But for now, here are the teams, trends and transactions that matter most. We’ll begin with the clearest winner of the 2025 offseason.

Winner: Houston Rockets

No matter its follow-up moves, Houston would have been an offseason winner on the virtue of the Kevin Durant trade alone. That’s how deeply the Rockets won the Durant deal, acquiring a picture-perfect solution to their greatest weakness while not losing any of their best young players or draft picks in return.

But the Rockets didn’t stop after adding Durant. They also signed Dorian Finney-Smith to a four-year, $53 million contract; signed Clint Capela to a three-year, $21.5 million pact; signed Fred VanVleet to a newly manageable contract; signed Jabari Smith Jr. to a reasonable extension; and re-signed Jae’Sean Tate, Aaron Holiday and Jeff Green to round out the roster.

The end result of all this activity is a deep, versatile roster that can beat opponents in all sorts of ways: with defense, rebounding, size, physicality, youth, experience, Durant’s shotmaking genius. The Rockets will challenge the Oklahoma City Thunder for the unofficial title of deepest team.

The Rockets will also challenge the Thunder for a more official title, because Houston looks like the second-best team in the West — and therefore the greatest threat to Oklahoma City’s chance at becoming the first repeat champion since Durant’s Warriors in 2017 and 2018.

This isn’t a perfect roster. Houston will be extremely dependent on VanVleet, now in his 30s and past his prime, because of a lack of backcourt depth. (A second-year leap from No. 3 pick Reed Sheppard, who averaged just 4.4 points in 12.6 minutes per game as a rookie, would be a major development for Houston.) The frontcourt rotation could also get messy if qualified players think they aren’t getting as many minutes as they deserve; with Capela joining Alperen Sengun and Steven Adams, Houston might be leaning too far into its effective-in-doses two-center alignments.

But those are small quibbles with an otherwise stacked roster. The Rockets ably juggled their cap sheet, replaced Dillon Brooks with Finney-Smith — who’s not as comfortable as a point-of-attack defender as Brooks, but that’s not an issue for a team with Amen Thompson and Tari Eason — and upgraded from the inefficient Jalen Green to Durant, one of the most efficient perimeter scorers in NBA history. That’s how to win the offseason.

Loser: Los Angeles Lakers

From the moment the Lakers acquired Luka Doncic in a surprise blockbuster, they desperately needed a center. They lost their previous starter, Anthony Davis, in the Doncic trade, and Doncic’s game would mesh perfectly with a dynamic pick-and-roll partner. There’s a reason Daniel Gafford broke out once he joined Doncic in Dallas and that Dereck Lively II was an impact rookie on the same team.

So it was no surprise that the Lakers agreed in principle to trade for a young, bouncy center immediately after acquiring Doncic. But when they rescinded the Mark Williams deal because of a failed physical, the Lakers were stuck with the players they already had on the roster. Jaxson Hayes started four playoff games but clearly didn’t have coach JJ Redick’s trust, as he played single-digit minutes in all four contests before being benched as Redick moved to a small-ball approach for all 48 minutes in the Lakers’ final loss of the season.

At the very least, in the wake of the Lakers’ disappointing playoff flameout, their top priority this summer seemed clear. And yet, a few days into the free agent frenzy, all of their top potential targets signed elsewhere, and they were stuck with Deandre Ayton, a surprise addition to the market after a buyout agreement with the Portland Trail Blazers.

Ayton doesn’t profile as an ideal short-term solution for a championship hopeful nor is he a long-term fit next to Doncic. The 2018 No. 1 pick — two picks ahead of Doncic, incidentally — is neither a rim runner nor a floor spacer, and his game peaked a half-decade ago. Despite persistently impressive box score stats, the best public advanced stats all rate Ayton as a below-average player.

Meanwhile, Ayton’s two-year deal with a player option carries little upside for the team. If he’s good in Year 1, he’ll opt out, whereas if he doesn’t gain Redick’s favor, he’ll stay on the team’s books for a second season.

This is a dangerous game to play when the Lakers are trying to manage James’ discontent and coax Doncic into signing a long-term extension later this summer. For now, there’s not much about this roster that should compel his signature. The Lakers have an imbalanced rotation with a lot of power forwards — Rui Hachimura, Maxi Kleber, Jarred Vanderbilt and, of course, James — but no trustworthy centers, and their only move of consequence other than signing Ayton is replacing Finney-Smith with Jake LaRavia.

Winner: Big man depth

A key reason the Lakers’ search for a center went so awry, so quickly is that all the good ones are already gone. One of the biggest (literally) themes of the first week of the offseason is teams doubling down on big men, even if they already seem set at the position.

The Rockets signed Capela even though they already had Sengun and Adams. The San Antonio Spurs picked up Luke Kornet even though they already had Victor Wembanyama. The Denver Nuggets traded for Jonas Valanciunas to be the best backup Nikola Jokic has had in years. The LA Clippers added Brook Lopez to back up Ivica Zubac. The New York Knicks signed Guerschon Yabusele to play with Towns and Mitchell Robinson. The New Orleans Pelicans signed Kevon Looney to split time with promising youngster Yves Missi. The Toronto Raptors extended Jakob Poeltl and signed Sandro Mamukelashvili. The Milwaukee Bucks signed Myles Turner and Jericho Sims, in addition to extending Bobby Portis.

The desire for double-big lineups also appeared on draft night, as two non-playoff teams in the West established long-term duos. The Trail Blazers picked 7-foot-1 project Yang Hansen to pair with 7-foot-2 second-year center Donovan Clingan, while the Phoenix Suns, in quick succession, traded for veteran Mark Williams and drafted Khaman Maluach, the first center off the board.

Other contenders paid to keep their established rotation of bigs intact. The Minnesota Timberwolves re-signed Naz Reid and Julius Randle for a combined $225 million; add in Rudy Gobert, whose extension kicks in this season and the Timberwolves have $334.5 million committed to their bigs, even after trading Towns. And the Memphis Grizzlies retained Jaren Jackson Jr. and Santi Aldama for a combined $292.5 million.

Moreover, after the Thunder started Isaiah Hartenstein — a free agent splurge last summer — and Chet Holmgren together en route to a title, they extended third big Jaylin Williams this week. And the Dallas Mavericks have been super big since trading for Davis; until Kyrie Irving returns from injury, their five best players are all natural power forwards or centers: Davis, newly extended Gafford, Lively, P.J. Washington and No. 1 draft pick Cooper Flagg.

This leaguewide trend could set up some delightful stylistic clashes for the few teams not following their lead, such as the Lakers and Golden State Warriors. But taken all together, these transactions make one thing very clear: After a decade of small-ball flirtations, big men are back in style — and not just MVP winners such as Jokic and Joel Embiid, but players of all stripes and levels, as long as they come with the requisite size.

Loser: Opponents trying to score inside against the San Antonio Spurs

Here’s a telling statistic about one of the new big man duos. According to GeniusIQ tracking, 166 players have defended at least 300 shot attempts within 5 feet over the past two seasons. Among that group, Kornet (52.2%) ranks fifth and Wembanyama (52.3%) ranks sixth in lowest field goal percentage allowed.

I wrote about Kornet in my list of underrated free agent targets, and the Spurs knew his value, signing the journeyman center to a four-year, $41 million deal. He’ll be an excellent backup behind Wembanyama. But don’t discount their ability to function together, as well; Wemby-Kornet lineups shouldn’t grow too crowded on offense because Wembanyama likes to play on the perimeter anyway, and they’d form a devastating defensive duo.

Winner: Denver Nuggets

For years, Denver’s starting lineup has been one of the best in the sport. Last season was no exception, even with Christian Braun stepping in for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope after the latter departed in free agency. The Nuggets’ starters had a net rating of plus-10.6 in the regular season and plus-11.3 in the playoffs. Even against the mighty Thunder in the second round, that quintet was plus-10.3 per 100 possessions.

Yet that success didn’t prevent the first true breakup of Denver’s long-term core, which had been in place since even before its title run in 2022-23. The Nuggets traded Michael Porter Jr. and an unprotected 2032 first-round pick for Cam Johnson, an ideal fit in Denver’s offensive system. Johnson is a knockdown shooter (39% on 3s in his career) on high volume, and while he doesn’t have Porter’s size, he’s much more dynamic off the bounce.

Moreover, the financial savings from this swap — because Porter will earn about $17 million more than Johnson next season — gave the Nuggets the necessary wiggle room for further additions.

First, they signed Bruce Brown Jr., another of my underrated free agent targets and a player with a proven ability to thrive next to Jokic. Then they traded Dario Saric, who played just 16 games — none in the playoffs — for Denver after an ill-advised free agent deal last summer, for Valanciunas, an overly qualified backup big who averaged a robust 20 points and 15 rebounds per 36 minutes last season, right in line with his peak numbers.

No longer should Denver hemorrhage points when Jokic heads to the bench, replaced by the likes of Zeke Nnaji and mid-30s DeAndre Jordan.

Finally, the Nuggets signed Tim Hardaway Jr., a willing and capable shooter (36% on 3s in his career), who along with Johnson should help boost the Nuggets’ 30th-ranked 3-point attempt rate.

In effect, the Nuggets lost two members of last season’s playoff rotation, Porter and Russell Westbrook. But they added four rotation-caliber players. Denver should now be able to go nine- or 10-deep comfortably, with the projected starting five of Brown, Hardaway, Valanciunas and Peyton Watson, plus the possibility of another youngster such as Julian Strawther making a leap.

The Nuggets came far closer than any other team in the West to knocking the Thunder off their championship path this spring. And now their 2025-26 roster looks much better than the 2024-25 version.

Loser: Milwaukee Bucks

To be fair to the Bucks, this categorization is less an indictment of their specific moves this week and more a reflection of a disastrous two years for the organization. That rotten period started with them hiring short-lived coach Adrian Griffin and trading for Lillard, then culminated Tuesday by waiving Lillard and stretching the remaining $113 million on his contract.

The Bucks were in a no-win position as soon as Lillard ruptured an Achilles in April. They have precious few assets beyond Giannis Antetokounmpo: no young talent, no control of their upcoming picks and no financial flexibility to upgrade around their two-time MVP. They did manage to create some short-term financial flexibility by stretching Lillard’s deal and trading Pat Connaughton, which allowed Milwaukee to steal center Myles Turner away from the Indiana Pacers — but at an extreme long-term cost.

Lillard will now count for $22.5 million against the Bucks’ cap for each of the next five seasons. For context, $22.5 million is about what Cam Johnson will earn in upcoming seasons. (It’s also about what Kyle Kuzma will earn over the next couple of seasons, meaning the Bucks arguably have two holes of that size on their cap sheet.)

That might be a fair price to pay if the Bucks were in contention for the 2025-26 title. But even though the fringiest contenders in the Eastern Conference have hope for next year, and even though Turner will serve as a younger Brook Lopez replacement next to Antetokounmpo, it’s difficult to imagine that a team starting Kevin Porter Jr. at point guard, with as porous a perimeter rotation as Milwaukee’s, can realistically compete.

Milwaukee’s front office deserves credit for its boldness in pursuing win-now moves to maximize Antetokounmpo’s prime, dating back to the trade that brought Jrue Holiday — and, soon after, a title — to town. But boldness alone won’t deliver more playoff wins to Milwaukee; only high-quality NBA players can do that. And even after this week’s stunner, the Bucks don’t have enough.

Winner: Atlanta Hawks

It’s not easy for teams led by a smaller point guard to advance deep into the playoffs, because that offensive engine will invariably be targeted on defense. The best strategy to combat this inherent weakness is the model the Pacers used, as they surrounded Tyrese Haliburton with high-caliber defenders at every other position en route to Game 7 of the Finals.

The Hawks are trying their best to replicate this approach, and they’ve spent the past two summers constructing a formidable roster around star point guard Trae Young. This offseason, they made an opportunistic trade for Kristaps Porzingis, an injury risk but an inarguable ceiling raiser, who was available because of the Boston Celtics‘ desire to dump salaries. (In the process, the Hawks also shed Terance Mann’s negative contract — which they never should have acquired at the trade deadline — at the cost of a late first-round pick.) The Hawks emerged as victors in the Nickeil Alexander-Walker sweepstakes, and they replaced Caris LeVert, who left for Detroit, with Luke Kennard, the active leader in career 3-point percentage (43.8%).

Atlanta’s rotation now surrounds Young with Defensive Player of the Year runner-up Dyson Daniels; rangy, athletic wings in Alexander-Walker, Jalen Johnson and No. 1 pick Zaccharie Risacher; and plus defensive centers in Porzingis and Onyeka Okongwu. The Hawks haven’t finished a season with a defensive ranking better than 18th in Young’s career, but as long as they avoid too many minutes with a Young-Kennard backcourt, they’ll have a chance to be above average this season.

And none of those transactions is even the best that Atlanta has completed this offseason. That would be the absolute heist the Hawks pulled on draft night, when they charged the New Orleans Pelicans an outrageous price to move up 10 spots, from No. 23 to 13. But the Pelicans paid it! And now the Hawks own the unprotected rights to the best pick between the Pelicans and Bucks next summer.

Given the Bucks’ continued uncertainty and the Pelicans’ weak standing in a loaded Western Conference, that pick is favored to land in the lottery. For reference, in my draft value chart, the difference between Nos. 13 and 23 is equivalent of the No. 28 pick, so the Hawks will almost certainly win this trade.

Forget their annual pilgrimage to a play-in game; in a wide-open East, with all of these upgrades, the Hawks could conceivably soar toward a top-four seed next season. Losing Larry Nance Jr. — a sneakily excellent bench upgrade for Cleveland — is the only minor ding against the Hawks’ otherwise stellar summer.

Loser: New Orleans Pelicans

If the Hawks are winners primarily because of their draft day fleecing, the team they fleeced has to show up on the losers’ ledger. This was simply a baffling decision from a new front office, led by Joe Dumars and Troy Weaver, that seemed to drastically misunderstand the team’s current position and the state of its roster.

The Pelicans finished 14th in the West last season, and while they’ll almost certainly improve on a 21-61 record with better health in 2025-26, it’s hard to identify many teams they’ll pass in the standings. Even if the Suns regress, the 13th-place Spurs, 12th-place Trail Blazers and 10th-place Mavericks all improved this summer, and New Orleans will have to pass all three of them (or two of them plus another team higher up the standings) just to reach the back end of the play-in tournament.

If the Pelicans don’t reach the playoffs, they’ll send a lottery pick to the Hawks. And they took that risk to be able to draft a prospect, Derik Queen, who might develop into a star but doesn’t seem like a superb fit next to incumbent star Zion Williamson. Both tweener bigs flash similar strengths and weaknesses. Can lineups with Williamson and Queen space the floor? Can they stop anyone on the other end?

I might not be piling on the Pelicans for one trade on draft night — no matter how ill-advised — if that were their only misstep of the offseason. But the new front office’s other moves don’t amount to a coherent strategy, either.

New Orleans also traded CJ McCollum and Kelly Olynyk for Jordan Poole and Saddiq Bey (as well as swapped second-round picks with Washington). Bey could help the Pelicans after he missed all of last season because of an ACL tear, but this was mostly a matter of New Orleans choosing Poole over McCollum. Yet while Poole is eight years younger, advanced stats generally consider the two players about equal, and Poole is signed for an extra year at $34 million.

And the Pelicans’ free agent signing is Looney, who will be a big question mark in his first time outside Golden State’s unique system. It’s especially difficult to envision how this offense will generate proper spacing with a host of non-shooters sharing the floor; Looney, Williamson, Queen and starting center Yves Missi have combined for 51 made 3-pointers in 922 career games (counting college stats for Queen and NBA stats for the other three).

Source: espn.com