With six rounds of the Formula 1 season remaining, a genuine title fight is brewing between Max Verstappen and Lando Norris.
Long-time followers of the sport will know how rare it is for a championship battle to be decided at the final round of the year — with just 30 examples in the sport’s 74-year history and only three in the last 10 years — but based on the two drivers’ trajectory over the last five races, the 2024 season is trending towards a showdown at the final round in Abu Dhabi.
The current gap between Verstappen and Norris stands at 52 points (Verstappen on 331 points, Norris on 279) with a total of 180 still up for grabs for any single driver if they win every race, every sprint race and score all bonus points for fastest laps (as unlikely as that is).
If the two drivers are tied on points at the final round, the one with the most victories would be crowned champion (Verstappen currently has seven to Norris’ three) and if that number is tied it would go to countback on second places, then third places and so on.
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How many points are on offer at each race?
The F1 points system offers up the following per position at the end of each grand prix.
1st – 25 points
2nd – 18 points
3rd – 15 points
4th – 12 points
5th – 10 points
6th – 8 points
7th – 6 points
8th – 4 points
9th – 2 points
10th – 1 point
Fastest lap: 1 bonus point providing the driver finishes in the top 10
There are three sprint races remaining this year, which offer up an opportunity to score extra points on the Saturday of the race weekend in a shortened standalone race. The points are distributed as follows.
1st – 8 points
2nd – 7 points
3rd – 6 points
4th – 5 points
5th – 4 points
6th – 3 points
7th – 2 points
8th – 1 point
Three of the remaining six rounds have sprint races as part of the schedule, starting this weekend in Austin.
Remaining races:
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October 20: US Grand Prix (Sprint weekend)
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October 27: Mexican Grand Prix
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November 3: Brazilian Grand Prix (Sprint weekend)
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November 24: Las Vegas Grand Prix
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December 1: Qatar Grand Prix (Sprint weekend)
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December 8: Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.
What does Norris need to do to win?
Lando Norris with Max Verstappen in Singapore. Clive Rose – Formula 1/Formula 1 via Getty Images
Even if Norris takes the maximum 180 points still on offer, Verstappen would be able to hold on to his lead by a single point by finishing second at every race and sprint. However, given the way the season has gone up to now, that hypothetical scenario seems incredibly unlikely as Ferrari, Mercedes and Norris’ teammate Oscar Piastri have all been in regular contention for wins and podiums.
A better way of looking at the task facing Norris is that he needs to take an average of 8.83 points out of Verstappen at each of the six remaining rounds. That might mean outscoring Verstappen by 10 points one weekend (the difference between a win and third place) and seven (the difference between a win and second place at another) at another, but ultimately he needs to consistently beat Verstappen to stand a chance.
To ensure the title race goes down to the final round, Norris needs to outscore Verstappen by 5.4 points on average at the next five rounds. However, that would leave the gap at 25 points ahead of Abu Dhabi, meaning Norris would go into the final race needing a victory and fastest lap while hoping Verstappen fails to score.
Is Norris trending towards a title based on recent results?
At the last five rounds, during which McLaren has been the most consistent team and Red Bull has struggled, Norris has closed the gap to Verstappen at an average of 6.4 points per round.
A continuation of that kind of form would leave a 13 or 14 point deficit at the final round and Verstappen needing to finish fifth or higher in Abu Dhabi to secure the title. It would provide an element of excitement and jeopardy to the final few races, but ultimately Verstappen remains the favourite given the size of his lead and the amount of races left.
Lando Norris has won three races this year, to Max Verstappen’s seven. Gongora/NurPhoto via Getty Images
Norris supporters will take some hope from McLaren emerging as the fastest car at most circuits in the second half of the season and Verstappen’s struggles during that same period. Since the British Grand Prix in July, Norris has cut Verstappen’s advantage from its season high point of 84 points to the current 52, while Verstappen hasn’t won a race since the Spanish Grand Prix in June.
Red Bull has struggled to consistently add performance to its car in the same way McLaren has this year, but upgrades for all the top teams at this weekend’s U.S. Grand Prix could alter the competitive picture again. The upgrades in Austin are likely to be the last major changes to the cars this year, so the relative performances of McLaren and Red Bull at the Circuit of the Americas could be a key indicator as to whether Norris will have the car he needs to seriously mount a challenge.
A retirement for either driver at the remaining races would provide a significant blow to their hopes. For example, if Verstappen fails to finish a grand prix while Norris wins and secures fastest lap, it would result in half of Verstappen’s current 52-point advantage being eroded on one fell swoop. But if Norris fails to score at any single race, it would likely spell the end of his title hopes unless the same thing happened to Verstappen at a later round.
Are any other drivers in the mix?
Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc is a further 34 points adrift of Norris, meaning his gap to Verstappen is 86 points. Even if he was regularly fighting for victories that would seem like a huge points gap, but it appears insurmountable given Ferrari’s fluctuations in form from race to race.
However, Leclerc — along with his Ferrari teammate Carlos Sainz and the Mercedes drivers Lewis Hamilton and George Russell — could still play a major role in the title fight by taking points off the two title contenders at the final six races and occasionally fighting for wins.
Charles Leclerc (R) is third in the drivers’ championship, 86 points behind Max Verstappen. Clive Rose/Getty Images
The other significant factor in the Verstappen/Norris title battle will be the performances of their teammates. McLaren’s Piastri has won two races this season and has the potential to secure further victories at the remaining rounds. McLaren has said it will give preference to Norris in 50/50 situations between its two drivers, but how far team orders might extend to ensure Piastri helps Norris is not entirely clear.
Likewise, Red Bull’s Sergio Perez will be called on to help Verstappen, but only if he is competitive enough to become a factor in races. Perez has struggled for form since his last podium at the Chinese Grand Prix in April and his lack of results has seen Red Bull drop behind McLaren in the constructors’ championship.
If he can run closer to the front in the final six races, as he did for the vast majority of the Azerbaijan Grand Prix two races ago, Red Bull has made clear that he will be asked to play a supporting role for Verstappen.
Source: espn.com