The Players Championship is annually one of the toughest tests in golf. It’s a course that rewards precision and punishes mistakes, where even the best players can struggle if they’re not sharp.
Unlike courses that favor power, TPC Sawgrass forces players to think strategically. The fairways are tight, and hazards — bunkers, water, and mounds — are placed exactly where they shouldn’t be. Many players won’t even use their driver off the tee, opting instead for control over distance. If the wind picks up, the challenge gets even harder.
The biggest test is hitting the greens. They’re small, firm and difficult to hold, demanding nearly perfect approach shots. Nowhere is that more evident than the iconic par 3 island green on hole 17, surrounded entirely by water, where one slight miscalculation can turn into a disaster.
Betting on players who are great off-the-tee and with their irons and have had recent strong finishes could be useful.
Tee times tend to shape the entire tournament, and history shows that the outright winner at the Players Championship has started early on Thursday and late on Friday, benefiting from smoother greens and calmer winds in the morning.
TPC Sawgrass demands precision, and those in the early wave get the best scoring conditions before the course firms up. Late Thursday starters often face bumpier greens and shifting winds, while their early Friday round can be affected by cold, dew-covered fairways. These small disadvantages add up over four days.
This year, players like Michael Kim, Sepp Straka and Justin Thomas have the favorable early/late draw, while others like Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa, Daniel Berger and Tommy Fleetwood fall into the tougher late/early wave. At a course where every shot matters, tee times could be the difference between contending and chasing.
Here’s a breakdown of the players that offer the best betting value in the Players Championship field, including picks to win, finish in the Top 20 and finish as the first-round leader.
All odds are accurate as of time stamp. All times Eastern. For the latest odds go to ESPN BET.
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Player props | Live betting tips
Props
Michael Kim Top-20 finish (+300); First round leader (60-1)
First round start time: 8:02 a.m. ET
Kim is the hottest player that bettors are currently overlooking. He is the only player on tour to gain strokes in every category for five straight tournaments. After a tough 2024 season, he made key adjustments — sharpening his short game, refining his driving and shifting his mindset from overanalyzing to trusting his instincts. The impact has been undeniable.
The concern with Kim is his history at TPC Sawgrass and Pete Dye courses, which has been far from promising, with loads of missed cuts. But when a player completely reinvents himself, past results don’t always matter.
Kim’s T-6 at the Cognizant Classic and fourth place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill suggest that he finally has the tools to handle a test like Sawgrass. He was considered a fringe competitor but has transformed into a consistent threat.
Sepp Straka Top-20 finish (+210); First-round leader (55-1)
First round start time: 8:57 a.m.
Straka is the definition of a boom-or-bust golfer. He’s just as likely to miss the cut as he is to be in the mix on Sunday, but at +210, it’s hard to pass on him delivering at least a top 20 finish. His Florida form is strong, with a T-5 at Bay Hill and a T-11 at the Cognizant Classic, showing he’s comfortable on Bermuda-grass courses. He already owns two Top-20 finishes at Sawgrass, his ball-striking is elite, but the short game is where things get shaky at best. If he avoids a disaster day around the greens, Straka has the profile to make a calculated wager worth it.
Daniel Berger Top-20 finish (+260)
First round start time: 1:07 p.m.
Berger consistently finished in the top 20 at nearly every event two years ago, but a back injury sidelined him for a while and he disappeared from the conversation. Now, he’s back and while he might not be at peak form, he’s playing well enough.
Berger is not known for his power but dissects golf courses with precision, ranked fourth in strokes gained off-the-tee in his last 32 starts. Since TPC Sawgrass is a second-shot course, if Berger keeps his approach game sharp, this sets up as a high-floor bet.
His results are trending in the right direction, with a T-2 in the Phoenix Open, a 12th place finish at Riviera in the Genesis Invitational, and a T15 at Bay Hill. Plus, Berger has a strong history at the Players Championship (T-9 in 2021, and T-13 in 2022), even though his record is inconsistent on Pete Dye courses.
Tommy Fleetwood Top-20 finish (+150)
First round start time: 1:40 p.m.
Few golfers are as reliable as Fleetwood. He is consistent, makes cuts and grinds out solid finishes, making him a strong bet to land in the top 20. His form is in a good place, with a T-5 at the Genesis and a T-11 at Bay Hill, two strong-field events that demand elite ball-striking. Fleetwood’s iron play remains one of the best on tour, and while his Bermuda putting has improved, it is still not a strength. His game is built for another steady finish in a strong-field event.
Live betting tips
Live bet on Scottie Scheffler to win
Scheffler, the world No. 1 and two-time defending champ, is chasing history as he looks to become the first golfer to win the Players Championship three years in a row. No one has won any PGA Tour event three straight years since Steve Stricker at the John Deere Classic (2009-2011). Scheffler has played just four events this year, posting two top 10s, including a T-3 at the Genesis Invitational.
Pass on Justin Thomas
Thomas’ inconsistency in strong fields, volatile putting, and shaky driving accuracy make him tough to trust at a course that punishes mistakes. He has had his moments at Sawgrass, but he hasn’t shown the form to back up another deep run. That said, this is exactly the type of spot where he could find a way to get it done, scrambling his way to contention. If he wins, I’ll take the loss with a smirk.
Look out for Collin Morikawa
Coming off a second place finish in the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Morikawa has a game built for TPC Sawgrass — at least on paper. His iron play is world-class and his 2025 form has been excellent, consistently contending in strong fields. The problem has been his putting, especially on Bermuda and Pete Dye courses. Morikawa’s late tee draw (1:40 p.m.) also works against him. If his irons are dialed in, he can absolutely contend, but if the putter doesn’t cooperate, he could be fighting just to crack the top 20.
Source: espn.com