The NBA is not traditionally kind to franchises trying to break into its championship club for the very first time. Before the Toronto Raptors won their first NBA title in 2019, a group of just 11 teams had monopolized all of the previous 39 championships dating back to 1980 — of which only six (or 15%) represented a franchise winning its first ring.
But little did we know at the time that those 2019 Raptors would signal a big shift in the NBA’s competitive environment going forward. In the six seasons from 2019 through 2024, six different teams won the Larry O’Brien Trophy — joining 1975 to 1980 as the only six-year stretches in NBA history featuring six different champions. The recent crop wasn’t all first-time winners — only Toronto in 2019 and the 2023 Denver Nuggets fit that qualification — but it was indicative of just how much had changed compared with the league’s usual dynastic history.
That, in turn, gives unprecedented hope to the 10 active NBA franchises trying to finally find their own championship breakthrough: the Brooklyn Nets, Charlotte Hornets, Indiana Pacers, LA Clippers, Memphis Grizzlies, Minnesota Timberwolves, New Orleans Pelicans, Orlando Magic, Phoenix Suns and Utah Jazz. With that in mind, we have ranked which teams from that group were most likely to be next — if any indeed do win a title over the next six seasons.
To estimate each team’s chances, we start by using a team’s preseason Las Vegas odds (for which we have data stretching from the 1984-85 season through the current campaign). We then augment it with factors such as the team’s current average roster age (weighted by each player’s recent Wins Above Replacement) and the age and recent performance of its best player (again, using WAR). After using this method to calculate each team’s probability of winning the title in each of the next six years, we can simulate that stretch thousands of times to track how often a first-time champ was crowned — and who the lucky team was when it did happen.
Based on all 2,500 of the simulations, there is roughly an 80% chance that at least one new champion etches its name in the record books by 2030. (This is pretty consistent with NBA history: Looking at things in six-season blocks from 1953 to 2024, only two of the 12 blocks failed to produce at least one new champ.) Using the subset of simulations where we got at least one new first-time champion, let’s run through who has the best odds of being that team.
Jump to a team:
BKN | CHA | IND | LAC
MEM | MIN | NOR
ORL | PHO | UTA
1. Minnesota Timberwolves
Odds to be next: 24.9% (if there’s a first-time winner in next 6 years)
Average roster age for 2024-25: 28.8 (22nd-youngest)
Preseason title odds: +900
The closest they’ve come before: Lost Western Conference finals (2024, 2004)
Out of the league’s 10 non-champs, the Wolves easily have the strongest chance to end their ringless streak next — and it’s not hard to see why. First of all, they’ve come the closest to the Finals most recently, having fallen short in the Western Conference finals against the Dallas Mavericks last season. And with a coveted young star to build around in 23-year-old Anthony Edwards, plus an interestingly retooled roster around him — they traded Karl-Anthony Towns to the New York Knicks for Donte DiVincenzo and Julius Randle (plus a future first-round pick) just weeks before the season — Minnesota is positioned to make title runs for the foreseeable future.
Just to think, this franchise had made the playoffs only once in 17 seasons from 2004-05 through 2020-21. Now the Wolves potentially look like the NBA’s next first-time champ.
2. Indiana Pacers
Odds to be next: 13.8% (if there’s a first-time winner in next 6 years)
Average roster age for 2024-25: 26.9 (11th-youngest)
Preseason title odds: +5000
The closest they’ve come before: Lost NBA Finals (2000)
Technically speaking, the Pacers have actually won multiple championships before — in 1970, 1972 and 1973. But those were in the ABA, and we’re focusing on NBA titles here. The good news is that Indiana’s prospects of ditching that caveat look promising. They go into this season with the league’s 11th-youngest roster, which includes Tyrese Haliburton, 24, as their best player.
Haliburton is coming off his best season by WAR, having made big strides in each of the past three years that include two All-Star selections. Even though his recent postseason ended prematurely with a hamstring injury, he is ready to lead Indiana on another go-round. Both he and Pascal Siakam are under contract for at least four more seasons, so the Pacers ought to have multiple solid chances to add that first title.
Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton talks to Pat McAfee about his team’s mindset after starting the season with a win.
3. Phoenix Suns
Odds to be next: 13.6% (if there’s a first-time winner in next 6 years)
Average roster age for 2024-25: 30.6 (27th-youngest)
Preseason title odds: +2000
The closest they’ve come before: Lost NBA Finals (2021, 1993, 1976)
Based on the history of future Hall of Famers winning titles, the Suns can never be counted out with Kevin Durant as their top player. There’s a reason he and his supporting stars, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal, got so much hype on the rare occasions when they were healthy last season. And surely one of these years, the basketball gods will bless Phoenix after so many years of trying to win.
Among the 10 ringless franchises, the Suns have played the most NBA seasons (57) and games (4,525), as well as posting the most wins (2,429) of any team on this list. While the Pacers are younger and probably have the brighter long-term future, karmically speaking, no team is more due to join the first-time winners’ club than Phoenix.
4. Orlando Magic
Odds to be next: 12.5% (if there’s a first-time winner in next 6 years)
Average roster age for 2024-25: 25.7 (3rd-youngest)
Preseason title odds: +5000
The closest they’ve come before: Lost NBA Finals (2009, 1995)
The Magic rank here largely on the basis of their core’s future potential, and there’s nothing wrong with that. In Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs, Orlando boasts three players aged 23 or younger who all produced at least 4 WAR last season, making them the only team in the NBA who can claim such a trio of productive young players.
Though this franchise doesn’t have much in the way of a recent playoff track record — it hasn’t escaped the first round since 2010 — and its current title odds are nothing special, it wouldn’t be surprising if they made another leap in performance over the next few years and became a legitimate championship contender soon.
5. New Orleans Pelicans
Odds to be next: 10.0% (if there’s a first-time winner in next 6 years)
Average roster age for 2024-25: 27.0 (12th-youngest)
Preseason title odds: +5000
The closest they’ve come before: Lost in the second round (2018, 2008)
The Pelicans are already dealing with early-season injuries to Trey Murphy III (hamstring) and Dejounte Murray (hand fracture). But with a roster that also includes the veteran know-how of CJ McCollum, the talent of Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram, and the underrated value of Herb Jones and Jose Alvarado, the Pelicans are nonetheless building something interesting in the Big Easy.
If that translates to so much as a moderately deep postseason run — to say nothing of a championship — it would be breaking new ground for a franchise that has never been past the second round of the playoffs. But a 10% chance from the model is far from terrible odds, given the team’s sparse history of previous playoff success.
6. Memphis Grizzlies
Odds to be next: 9.4% (if there’s a first-time winner in next 6 years)
Average roster age for 2024-25: 26.3 (6th-youngest)
Preseason title odds: +3300
The closest they’ve come before: Lost Western Conference finals (2013)
Speaking of sparse postseason histories, the Grizzlies aren’t exactly that much further along than the Pelicans. Memphis has made the second round five times in 30 seasons, topping out with a lone conference finals bid for the Grit-n-Grind Grizzlies in 2013. So just under 1-in-10 odds to be the next new champ isn’t bad here, either.
And one area where the model is potentially undervaluing Memphis relative to a team such as New Orleans (or even Orlando) is in its star power component. Because Ja Morant missed so much time because of suspension and injury over the past few seasons, Desmond Bane comes in as statistically the Grizzlies’ top player by weighted WAR. That is technically true, but it’s also misleading if Morant plays to his full potential. Once that happens, they ought to shoot up this list, but we have to reserve judgment for now.
7. LA Clippers
Odds to be next: 7.3% (if there’s a first-time winner in next 6 years)
Average roster age for 2024-25: 32.0 (30th-youngest)
Preseason title odds: +10000
The closest they’ve come before: Lost Western Conference finals (2021)
The Clippers are a tough franchise to peg for this kind of ranking. If we’d done this exercise in most seasons throughout the 2010s and into the 2020s, they would probably come out as the most likely next new champion more often than not (especially once LeBron James’ Cleveland Cavaliers got their title in 2016). And yet, the Clippers’ capacity for playoff underachievement appears to be boundless.
Even now, they don’t seem like a team to take seriously, particularly given their age, the offseason departure of Paul George and the recent news that Kawhi Leonard would be out indefinitely to begin the 2024-25 season. (ESPN BET dropped its title odds to +10000 in response.) Still, our historical model gives the Clippers some credit in the near term for the quality of a player like Leonard as their top star when healthy, even if those chances dip as we peer more seasons into the future. So while their path to the top feels doomed right now, you can’t fully count them out, either.
8. Utah Jazz
Odds to be next: 3.8% (if there’s a first-time winner in next 6 years)
Average roster age for 2024-25: 26.6 (10th-youngest)
Preseason title odds: +100000
The closest they’ve come before: Lost NBA Finals (1997, 1998)
The Jazz are one of the biggest wild cards on our list. Utah has yet to make the playoffs under coach Will Hardy, the team won just 31 games last season, and its preseason ESPN BET title odds are very long. However, between Lauri Markkanen and Collin Sexton — both of whom are still 27 or younger — the Jazz also have an intriguing core to go with one of the league’s youngest rosters.
Markkanen signed a big extension in August, so if Utah does see postseason success down the line, he’ll presumably play a large role in it. The rest of the roster has a lot of flexibility after the next few seasons, which makes predicting the Jazz’s long-term future — for good or bad — difficult.
9. Charlotte Hornets
Odds to be next: 2.6% (if there’s a first-time winner in next 6 years)
Average roster age for 2024-25: 25.3 (No. 1 youngest)
Preseason title odds: +100000
The closest they’ve come before: Lost in the second round (2002, 2001, 1998, 1993)
The idea of Charlotte being the next title-less team to climb to the NBA’s mountaintop is a little difficult to process. The Hornets have never made a conference final, and they haven’t been to the second round of the playoffs since 2002 — 23 seasons ago. (In fact, they haven’t made the playoffs at all in nearly a decade.) It would require a huge change in the trajectory of the franchise for them to even compete for a ring.
Working in their favor, though, is youth — no team goes into 2024-25 with a younger roster — as well as plenty of talent to work with. That group is headlined by Miles Bridges, Brandon Miller, Mark Williams and, of course, LaMelo Ball, whose availability the whole franchise seems to revolve around. If Ball is over his injuries (just 58 games played in the past two seasons) and ready to lead the Hornets forward — and he’s averaged 31.7 points in Charlotte’s first three games — they will move up this list. But that’s firmly a big “if” for right now.
10. Brooklyn Nets
Odds to be next: 2.1% (if there’s a first-time winner in next 6 years)
Average roster age for 2024-25: 27.3 (13th-youngest)
Preseason title odds: +100000
The closest they’ve come before: Lost NBA Finals (2003, 2002)
Like the Pacers, the Nets are another former ABA champ whose pre-merger success doesn’t count for our purposes. And if you’d asked us just a few years ago, Brooklyn might have been an easy pick as the most likely team to end its drought — like when the Kevin Durant-Kyrie Irving-James Harden team held a 3-2 lead over the eventual champion Milwaukee Bucks in the 2021 East semifinals.
Alas, KD’s size-18 sneaker was on the line for what would have been a series-winning shot in Game 7, the Nets lost, their superteam was broken up, and now Brooklyn fans have little in the way of hope. Unless Ben Simmons can recapture his previous potential (Hey! Stop laughing!), the odds of the Nets being the NBA’s next new champion are about as likely as Simmons becoming a 3-point specialist.
Source: espn.com