With less than a month left in the NBA regular season, the battle for seeding in the Western Conference has taken shape after a number of twists and turns created by injuries and blockbuster trades. All along, the Oklahoma City Thunder have separated themselves from the pack through their dominant play.
With a 13-game cushion on three teams tied for second, the Thunder could clinch the No. 1 seed and home-court advantage throughout the West playoffs as soon as this week. The Denver Nuggets, Memphis Grizzlies and Houston Rockets are all even in the standings with the Los Angeles Lakers just a game back. One of those teams will have to start the playoffs on the road as the No. 5 seed.
The last key race to watch is for the No. 6 seed, which means avoiding the play-in tournament. The Golden State Warriors and Minnesota Timberwolves have been matching each other win for win, but unless they can catch the Lakers, one will have to reach the playoffs through the play-in.
At the bottom of the West play-in race, there’s nothing but sadness, as the Phoenix Suns try to salvage a postseason bid by passing the injury-riddled Dallas Mavericks.
Let’s break down which of these teams has the best chance to go on a long playoff run and which team surging in the standings is for real. We’ll divide the West into tiers once again, after our last breakdown came a month ago, following the All-Star break.
Jump to a tier:
The clear-cut favorite
Ready for a deep run (if healthy)
Play-in feels about right
A two-team battle for No. 10
Lottery lookahead
Tier 1: The clear-cut favorite
Current record: 56-12 (first in the West)
Record since Feb. 17 check-in: 12-2
Tier change:
ESPN’s Zach Kram recently laid out 22 reasons opponents should be scared of facing the Thunder in the playoffs. As I’ve said on BlueSky, “fear” tends to be a lagging indicator, not something that’s predictive for the playoffs. Oklahoma City continues to prove its mettle against the NBA’s best, splitting a pair of games against the Nuggets last week before beating the defending champion Boston Celtics at the TD Garden.
Perhaps the most encouraging sign from the Thunder’s win in Boston was Chet Holmgren’s performance with Jalen Williams sidelined by a hip strain. Holmgren filled Williams’ role as second scorer, putting up 23 points — his most since returning from a hip fracture — and 15 rebounds.
Tier 2: The most dangerous contenders at full strength
Current record: 43-25
Record since Feb. 17 check-in: 7-6
Tier change:
“At full strength” might not be the right description for the Nuggets, who are now 11-9 this season when their opening night starting lineup has started the game and 30-12 in the other 42 games when three-time MVP Nikola Jokic was in, but another opening night starter was out.
As you might guess, there’s more than a little shooting luck involved in those splits. Denver has made 36% of its 3s in games started by its opening night five and 39.5% in all other games Jokic has started. Considering that having a starter out typically means more of Russell Westbrook, a 34% 3-point shooter, that’s surely random noise. Westbrook has been dramatically more effective as a starter, posting an elite .603 true shooting percentage in those games as compared to .480 coming off the bench, when he tends to play less with Jokic.
At the same time, elite defenses have been more effective at exploiting Westbrook’s iffy shooting. Against top-10 defenses, he’s posting an 11.6 game score per 36 minutes, compared to 15.8 against all other teams. His 3-point attempts per 36 minutes are also higher against top-10 defenses (5.7, including 17 combined in two losses to the Celtics) compared to the rest of the league (4.3). Still, the Nuggets are well-positioned to finish second in the West and have the best combination of regular-season performance and playoff experience. They’re the most likely team outside of Oklahoma City to reach the conference finals.
Current record: 39-28
Record since Feb. 17 check-in: 11-1
Tier change:
It has been a journey through the tiers for the Warriors this season. They debuted alongside Oklahoma City in the top tier in the midst of a 10-2 start, then dropped to the third tier in January and February. Now, with Golden State having gone 15-1 in games Jimmy Butler III has played, I’ve got them above several teams ahead of them in the standings.
Why might this stretch be more sustainable than the Warriors’ start? The short answer is they’re more talented after adding Butler. The long answer is their success appears less fluky.
When Golden State started 10-2, the team’s success was primarily on 3-point shooting on both ends. It hit 39% of its 3s in that span, second to the Cleveland Cavaliers, while opponents hit just 30.5% — far and away the league’s lowest mark. But in the games that followed through the trade deadline, opponents outshot the Warriors from beyond the arc.
Since adding Butler, Golden State has shot better from 3, as you’d expect, given Stephen Curry is the NBA’s greatest shooter of all time and Buddy Hield is also historically elite. But the Warriors’ improvement to third in defensive rating with Butler has had little to do with opponent misses. Golden State leads the league in forcing turnovers thanks in large part to Butler’s disruptive defense.
We still need to see how the Warriors match up with the West’s best teams. Monday’s meeting with the Nuggets will be just their second game against a team in the conference’s top six since adding Butler. But given Golden State has three of the NBA’s top playoff overperformers in Butler, Curry and Draymond Green, I’m giving the Warriors the benefit of the doubt they can keep it up against stiffer competition.
Current record: 41-25
Record since Feb. 17 check-in: 9-5
Tier change:
In addition to injuries to frontcourt starters Jaxson Hayes and Rui Hachimura, James’ groin strain derailed the Lakers’ eight-game winning streak. The good news is banking those wins gave the Lakers some breathing room to stay in the West’s top five. The bad news is after losing at Brooklyn, we can’t assume the Lakers will win any game while so short-handed, which made Hayes’ return to the lineup Sunday important.
Even at their best, the Lakers weren’t as dominant as Golden State has been recently. Most of the Lakers’ wins came by single-digits at home, though their win at Denver was a declaration of intent that Luka Doncic can still reach another gear coming back from his hamstring strain. That potential puts them in this tier.
… and the other conference finals contenders
Current record: 43-25
Record since Feb. 17 check-in: 9-4
Tier change:
Fred VanVleet’s return from two ankle injuries came at a perfect time for the Rockets, who went 10-9 without him despite facing relatively easy opponents. Houston will be hard-pressed to reach second in the West but is well-positioned for home-court advantage in the first round because the Rockets’ remaining schedule is much easier than Memphis’ slate, which, according to BPI, is the league’s hardest.
As we look toward the playoffs, there are reasons for skepticism about Houston’s chances. Of the team’s typical starters, only VanVleet has playoff experience. The Rockets are also unusually weak for a playoff team in half-court offense.
On the first play of a half-court possession, Houston averages just .92 points per play, which is 26th in the league, according to Cleaning the Glass. No other above-.500 team is in the bottom 10 in this category and no bottom-five half-court offense has made the playoffs since 2021-22, when the Toronto Raptors (26th) and New Orleans Pelicans (27th) lost in the first round.
Current record: 43-25
Record since Feb. 17 check-in: 7-7
Tier change:
The Grizzlies used their depth to go 4-1 in the five games All-Star Jaren Jackson Jr. missed because of a groin strain. That has kept Memphis in position to battle for second in the West, which would give the Grizzlies home-court advantage through the conference finals.
In addition to a strong record, Memphis has easily the second-best differential in the West at plus-5.9 PPG — fourth-best in the NBA. I wonder whether repeated exposure to the Grizzlies’ unorthodox offense might benefit opponents in the playoffs, although it hasn’t played out that way during the regular season. Among opponents Memphis has played multiple times, the Grizzlies are 16-9 (.640) in the first matchup and 14-11 (.560) in the second — but with a better point differential in the second games.
Current record: 40-29
Record since Feb. 17 check-in: 9-4
Tier change:
Although it has been overshadowed by the Lakers and Warriors, the Timberwolves have been the NBA’s hottest team in March, going 7-0 with a league-high plus-14.9 differential. Minnesota has faced a remarkably easy schedule — just one above-.500 opponent in that span — and benefited from unsustainable 3-point shooting at both ends, but this is finally the team the Timberwolves envisioned with Julius Randle serving as a playmaker and Donte DiVincenzo hot from 3-point range.
The challenge is the standings. Minnesota has made up a half-game on Golden State in March and the two teams remain 2½ games back of the West pack. Despite the easiest remaining schedule in the West, the Timberwolves are the most likely of these teams to land in the play-in.
A first-round rematch against Denver as the No. 7 seed might not be so bad for Minnesota, which has won all three head-to-head matchups by a combined 52 points. (The division rivals meet a fourth and final time April 1.) The Timberwolves also split with the Thunder. But the path from the play-in to the conference finals, while doable, is long.
Tier 3: Stuck in the play-in?
Current record: 38-30
Record since Feb. 17 check-in: 7-7
Tier change:
Within striking distance of home-court advantage in the first round entering February, the Clippers have gone 9-10 since despite having Kawhi Leonard available for 13 of those 18 games. Leonard hasn’t played at an All-Star level coming back from knee surgery, posting a career-low .545 true shooting percentage while maintaining his highest usage rate (28% of the Clippers’ plays) since 2020-21.
Making the playoffs would exceed the low expectations for the Clippers, and they’ll be in solid position to advance as the likely No. 8 seed in the play-in after beating the Sacramento Kings in a crucial overtime showdown March 9. That assured the Clippers the head-to-head tiebreaker. But climbing above eighth looks unlikely for the Clippers, who make the play-in in nearly 90% of BPI simulations.
Current record: 33-33
Record since Feb. 17 check-in: 5-6
Tier change:
The Kings are 5½ games out of sixth in the West and three games up on 11th, making them the most likely team to appear in the play-in — 97% of simulations, per BPI. Sacramento has faced a difficult schedule with Domantas Sabonis sidelined because of a hamstring strain, going 2-5 with four of the five losses to above-.500 opponents. That won’t lighten up much. BPI rates the Kings’ remaining schedule the league’s sixth hardest.
Tier 4: Battling for the last play-in spot
Current record: 33-36
Record since Feb. 17 check-in: 3-9
Tier change:
Having lost seven of their past eight games, the Mavericks are hanging on to the 10th and final spot in the play-in tournament. They are 1½ games ahead of the Suns, who won March 7 in Dallas to claim the season series and head-to-head tiebreaker.
Though the Mavericks might get back some much-needed depth from injury as their two-way players run low on game eligibility. Unless Anthony Davis returns, there isn’t enough high-end talent in Kyrie Irving’s absence for Dallas to advance from the play-in.
Current record: 31-37
Record since Feb. 17 check-in: 5-9
Tier change:
Being the last team in the play-in with a below-.500 record would still represent a tremendous disappointment for the Suns, but it beats missing the play-in entirely while sending the resulting lottery pick to Houston. Phoenix has been more competitive in March, beating the Clippers and Mavericks and losing in overtime at Denver and by two at Memphis.
The challenge is the Suns play a gauntlet starting Friday, with 10 consecutive games against teams in the top six of their respective conferences. Phoenix can’t avoid any missteps before then and may have to come up with a few upsets to catch Dallas. BPI projections still show the Mavericks slightly more likely to reach the play-in.
Tier 5: Looking to the lottery
Current record: 18-50
Record since Feb. 17 check-in: 5-8
Tier change:
Like Memphis this time last year, the Pelicans are evaluating what to take from the final months of the season as they play out the string. The Grizzlies found contributors GG Jackson, Scotty Pippen Jr. and Vince Williams Jr. — now important to their depth.
For New Orleans, Zion Williamson’s strong play is the biggest positive. Williamson is shooting 59% since the All-Star break and averaging a career-high 5.3 assists, positive indicators if he can stay healthy for 2025-26. Rookie Karlo Matkovic, a 2023 second-round pick, also looks increasingly like a rotation player. Matkovic is averaging 10.1 points and 6.3 rebounds since the break, shooting 58% from the field — up from 49% in limited minutes before the break.
Current record: 29-39
Record since Feb. 17 check-in: 6-7
Tier change:
A five-game losing streak against top competition has all but ended Portland’s play-in hopes. The Blazers reach the play-in just 6% of BPI simulations. At some point, Portland might change its focus to lottery positioning. The Blazers can’t catch any of the seven teams ahead of them in the draft standings, all with at least five fewer wins, but would help their chances at winning the lottery by holding off the Chicago Bulls, Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs — all with between 27 and 29 wins.
Record since Feb. 17 check-in: 28-38
Current record: 5-9
Tier change:
De’Aaron Fox’s decision to undergo season-ending surgery to repair tendon damage in his left pinkie moves the Spurs’ focus to the lottery and beyond. At 4-8 since Victor Wembanyama’s campaign was ended because of deep vein thrombosis, San Antonio wasn’t in position to push for the play-in. Better to get Fox healthy for a more promising 2025-26 campaign.
Current record: 15-53
Record since Feb. 17 check-in: 2-12
Tier change:
With the Washington Wizards going 5-6 in their past 11 games, the Jazz have only one more win in the race for the NBA’s worst record — and pole position in the lottery. Utah is all but sure to have the maximum odds at the No. 1 pick (and a chance to take Duke’s Cooper Flagg) but dipping behind the Wizards would assure the Jazz no worse than the fifth selection, which would be their highest since taking Dante Exum No. 5 in 2014.
Source: espn.com