As the NBA returns from the All-Star break, everything starts to ramp up with most teams having fewer than 30 games left to play in the regular season. So what are the best bets to make, both on the player award races and the team futures bets?
Andre Snellings, Eric Moody, Eric Karabell, Steve Alexander and Jim McCormick offer up the picks that are worth strongly considering before the games resume.
Odds courtesy of ESPN BET Sportsbook
Team futures
Los Angeles Lakers to win Western Conference (+700)
With their trade for Luka Doncic, the Lakers join the Thunder and Nuggets as the third Western Conference team that could separate itself from the pack. Doncic and LeBron James give the Lakers two of the top offense creators in the NBA, and this means we can expect maximized production from the other Lakers, including Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura. While the Lakers have question marks in the middle, they mitigate that by starting a lineup featuring four players with power forward size (including LeBron and Luka) who can help them remain strong on the glass even when they play small ball. Dangerous team, and worth consideration at relative long-shot odds. — Snellings
Orlando Magic to win the Southeast Division (-105)
Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are back for the Magic after an injury-filled start to the season. They’re 4-6 in their past 10, and the remaining 26 games are crucial. Orlando doesn’t have a reputation as an offensive powerhouse, but the Magic rank third in defensive rating this season, which is key with one of the easiest remaining schedules. I like their chances to lock down the Southwest Division. — Moody
I’m riding with Moody on this one. The Magic have the seventh-easiest schedule that includes three more meetings against the Wizards. As Eric notes, an impressive and ascendant frontcourt group promises to improve with more cohesion. The odds on this stood out to me as entirely reasonable for an outcome that feels possible by both the eye test and projections. — McCormick
Golden State Warriors to win Western Conference (+1800)
I don’t usually listen too closely to what Draymond Green has to say, but he may be on to something when it comes to his team making another Finals run. Newcomer Jimmy Butler sure looks good as a Warrior, and the franchise gets young Jonathan Kuminga back from injury soon. Would it be so shocking if Steph, Draymond and the new Warriors got hot at the right time and shocked the Thunder or Nuggets? At these odds, it is worth a look. — Karabell
Oklahoma City Thunder to win the championship (+230)
I picked the Thunder to win it all before the season started, and they’ve completely lived up to the hype, going 44-10, tying the Cavaliers for the best record in the league. They’ve also struggled with injuries this season, but we’re finally getting a taste of Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein together. They’re young, have two of the best players in the league with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams, and I simply don’t see anyone beating them in a seven-game series, as they look unbeatable in that scenario. — Alexander
Win totals (Over/Under bets)
Detroit Pistons over 41.5 wins (-115)
The Pistons are one of the feel-good stories in the NBA, winners of four straight and holding a sixth seed that would make them a playoff team if the season ended today. A season after their NBA-record 28 straight losses, the Pistons are clearly moving in the right direction with All-Star and 2021 No. 1 pick Cade Cunningham leading the way. If you extrapolated the Pistons’ 29-26 record (52.7% win rate) to 82 games, it would give you 43 wins. But even that underestimates this team. After starting the season 9-15, the Pistons have dramatically improved. In their past 29 games, the Pistons are 19-10. That is a long, two-month stretch of winning at a 66% clip. If the Pistons continue to play at anywhere near that rate over their remaining 29 games, they should soar over the 41.5-win threshold. — Snellings
Memphis Grizzlies over 52.5 regular-season wins (-115)
Ja Morant has been the engine for the Grizzlies when he’s on the court. He’s averaging 20.7 PPG and 7.4 APG in 32 starts this season. Memphis went into the All-Star break as the No. 2 seed in the West and ranks in the top eight in both offensive and defensive rating. With one of the easiest remaining schedules in the league, I like the Grizzlies’ chances of surpassing this total. — Moody
Denver Nuggets over 52.5 wins (Even)
Nikola Jokic doesn’t like losing, and he has the Nuggets on an eight-game winning streak and likely to secure the No. 2 West spot this season. In addition, I don’t think Jokic likes seeing someone else leading the conversation for league MVP. Oh, he knows. The Nuggets will sail past 53 wins. — Karabell
Oklahoma City Thunder over 64.5 wins (-145)
Unlike the Celtics and some other teams, I just don’t see the Thunder taking many nights off; they are going to bring everything they have to win as many games as they can. They’ll have to go at least 21-7 the rest of the way to hit, but if any team can do that, it’s the Thunder, especially considering they’ve lost only 10 of their first 54 games. — Alexander
Minnesota Timberwolves over 46.5 wins (-130)
Minnesota’s opponents the rest of the way currently sport a .474 winning clip, setting them up with the fifth-easiest strength of schedule in the league. The team is 10th in offensive rating and eighth in net rating the past 10 games. Jaden McDaniels has reached and sustained a new level of offensive impact. If Donte DiVincenzo can get back on the floor for the final weeks of the season, this could be a hot team down the stretch. — McCormick
To make playoffs or play-in tournament
Philadelphia 76ers to make playoffs (+280)
The 76ers are one of the tragic stories of the first half of the season. After making big moves this offseason, including bringing Paul George into the fold, they were expected to contend for the Eastern Conference crown. Instead, they currently sit 11th in the East, 14 games under .500 and on the outside of both the playoffs and play-in. There is further risk that the team could shut things down because they traded away their first-round pick this season (top-6 protected). If they end up with one of those first six picks in the draft, they would get to keep their pick. That could be a powerful motivator for the 76ers’ decision makers.
That said, the 76ers are also only 1.5 games behind the Bulls for the 10th seed and final play-in spot. And each of the three teams currently in front of them — the Hawks, Heat and Bulls — all traded away at least one of their best players at the deadline. If the 76ers do get more minutes out of Joel Embiid after the break, and more importantly, he starts ramping up his level as the playoffs approach, they would be in a good position to beat out each of those other three teams and exit the play-in with one of the final two playoffs spots. — Snellings
San Antonio Spurs to make playoffs (+500)
The Spurs’ front office has done a great job building around Victor Wembanyama, and adding De’Aaron Fox is another smart move. San Antonio entered the All-Star break in 12th place in the West with a 23-29 record. The Spurs are seven games behind the sixth-place Clippers, but only 4.5 games behind the Warriors (10th). A play-in spot isn’t out of the question. — Moody
Chicago Bulls to make playoffs (+400)
OK, I will take the bet that the 76ers can’t figure out how to tank correctly, keep trying to win and still finish behind the Bulls for the No. 10 spot in the East. It makes sense in a tragic way. Even if Joel Embiid does play, the 76ers aren’t exactly thriving with him. They seem worse with George active. Chicago isn’t particularly good, but Matas Buzelis and Ayo Dosunmu look like fun. That Bulls-76ers game on the final Sunday of the season will be must-watch TV. — Karabell
Atlanta Hawks to make playoffs (+130)
The loss of Jalen Johnson (shoulder) and the trading of Hunter hurts them, but Caris LeVert and Georges Niang have stepped up to help Trae Young, Dyson Daniels and Onyeka Okongwu. The 26-29 Hawks are currently the No. 8 seed in the East and the No. 7 Magic are sliding. After a recent eight-game losing streak, the Hawks have righted the ship, going 4-2 over their past six. — Alexander
Dallas Mavericks to make playoffs (+110)
Injuries have mounted and so have the losses. Dallas needs to regain defensive form. This is a team that just leveraged a team legend for the sake of defensive performance and yet sit 29th in defensive rating the past 10 games. Then again, there is still very real potential for the roster to find some defensive success given the personnel it has. Even with Anthony Davis on the mend, I believe the veteran core and coaching will help correct the course. It also helps that the team has the 10th-lowest opponent winning percentage on its remaining schedule. — McCormick
Player awards
Nikola Jokic to win MVP (+350)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the odds-on favorite to win MVP at the break, and Tim Bontemps’ latest straw pole of potential MVP voters saw SGA win 70% of the first-place votes to Jokic’s 30%. SGA leads the NBA in scoring (32.5 PPG) on the team with the best record in the league, and the perception that he is due to win the award also impacts his favorite status. But Jokic, the three-time reigning MVP, is having the best season of his career. He is averaging nearly a 30-point triple-double (29.8 PPG, 12.6 RPG, 10.2 APG), something that has never been done by a center in the history of the NBA. He ranks top-four in the NBA in points, rebounds, assists and steals per game. The Nuggets outscore their opponents by 19.9 more points per 100 possessions with Jokic on the floor than on the bench, an even better mark than SGA’s 17.4. And most importantly, the Nuggets are on an eight-game winning streak that has them within a half game of the 2-seed in the West. MVPs are overwhelmingly chosen from top-two seeds, so if Jokic maintains his historic production and impact rate while leading his team to a top seed, he has the capacity to close the gap and possibly even overtake SGA for his fourth MVP award. — Snellings
Tyler Herro to win the Most Improved Player Award (+1600)
The MIP race is one of the most exciting this season, and Cunningham deserves to be the front-runner. But don’t sleep on Herro. He’s having a career year, averaging 23.9 PPG and 5.5 APG, and he earned his first All-Star nod this season. Since the 2019-20 season, every winner of this award has also made his first All-Star appearance that same season. — Moody
Malik Beasley Sixth Man of the Year (+550)
While Payton Pritchard (-170) and De’Andre Hunter (+320) are the two favorites to win this award, Beasley is hanging around. His Pistons are one of this season’s success stories, and Beasley is one of the main reasons why. He has averaged 16.5 points and 3.9 3-pointers per game, outscoring Pritchard on the season, while Hunter has averaged just 15 points in his two games with the Cavaliers. I think Beasley has a real shot at winning this thing, especially if he plays well to end the season. — Alexander
Stephon Castle to win Rookie of the Year (+135)
This reads like one of the better values on the menu. There is no clear star from this class pulling away, which opens the door for Castle’s steady growth to gain attention. After all, he had the best dunk of actual NBA players at the dunk contest and is proving more efficient as a secondary creator now that the Spurs have layers of playmaking. The narrative angle features Castle playing a meaningful role on an exciting team down the stretch — while the other contenders for this award are largely on forgettable teams. The statistical angle is growing; Castle has averaged 18 points on strong efficiency the past 15 games. The high free throw attempt rate stands out. The price on this award will stay soft for only so long. — McCormick
Source: espn.com