Whether a team is an NBA Finals contender or bound to be a lottery team for June’s draft, the topic of free agency now looms with less than two months left in the regular season.
And after the wild week leading up to this season’s trade deadline, should we expect as much drama when teams can begin negotiating with upcoming free agents on June 30?
That might be tough, but after witnessing those league-altering trades, some big names could shake up the summer. LeBron James, James Harden and Kyrie Irving are among the stars eligible to enter free agency — but are new deals with their current teams more realistic?
As for teams with money to spend? Well, it’s also a pretty short list: the Brooklyn Nets, Chicago Bulls, Detroit Pistons and Memphis Grizzlies are the only teams currently under the salary cap.
Which players and teams will enter the mix between now and the offseason? What new salary cap restrictions will hit teams the hardest?
Yes, it’s only February. But we’re already looking at the storylines that will dominate June, July and August. Here’s what to watch this summer during the next free agency and trade season, including next steps for LeBron, Luka Doncic, Kevin Durant and Victor Wembanyama’s San Antonio Spurs.
Jump to a section:
Who has the leverage? | FAs to watch
Supermax-eligible players to watch
Which teams control the summer?
Will extensions dominate the summer?
Small move with big summer implications
Why Aug. 2 is a major day in Lakerland
Will Spurs add more pieces around Wemby?
More CBA restrictions?! Two rules to watch
Which NBA free agents will have the most leverage this summer?
If you asked team executives three years ago, the answer surely would not have been Kyrie Irving.
That was in the 2022 offseason, when the free agent market was non-existent for Irving after a tumultuous season with the Brooklyn Nets. The guard would opt-in to his contract with the Nets, get suspended eight games for conduct detrimental to the team and eventually get traded to the Dallas Mavericks at the 2023 deadline.
Now, executives polled for this story unanimously consider Irving the player who has the most leverage heading into the 2025 offseason.
One of the biggest reasons why: his $43 million player option for 2025-26, which, if declined, will send Irving into free agency for the third time in his career.
While Irving continues to play at an All-NBA level, executives pointed to the recent Luka Doncic trade and comments made by Maverick general manager Nico Harrison as to why Irving is in position to score a lucrative contract.
“He fits our timeframe,” Harrison said, referring to the addition of big man Anthony Davis. “If you pair him with Kyrie [Irving] and the rest of the guys, he fits right along with our timeframe to win now and win in the future. And the future to me is three, four years from now.”
That timeline only exists if Irving signs a new contract. The 32-year-old is eligible for a five-year, $313 million contract if the option for next season is declined, but the most logical option is a three-year, $176 million max contract that lines up with the remainder of Davis’ deal.
Irving’s former teammate, LeBron James, can also become a free agent this summer. The 40-year-old has a $52.6 million player option for 2025-26 and would be eligible to sign a three-year, $175 million contract with the Lakers if the option is declined. He would remain eligible to include a no trade clause in his next contract.
His future with the Lakers was recently questioned after the Doncic trade.
“If I had concerns about it, I’d waive my no-trade clause and get up out of here,” James said. “I’m here right now. I’m here right now. I’m committed to the Lakers organization.”
What other free agents should we be watching?
At one time, the 2025 free agent class boasted Davis, Jayson Tatum, Jimmy Butler, Donovan Mitchell, Damian Lillard, Lauri Markkanen, Rudy Gobert, Brandon Ingram and Jamal Murray.
Those nine players are now off the free agent board, having recently signed extensions.
Outside of headliners James and Irving, the next group of free agents could include James Harden, Fred VanVleet, Jonathan Kuminga, Myles Turner and Cam Thomas. Among those top names, Turner is the only free agent that does not have an option or is restricted.
ESPN’s Dave McMenamin examines how LeBron James’ game has evolved over the course of 21 All-Star appearances.
All in all, here are the names to watch this summer:
Franchise level: LeBron James (Player option)
All-Star level: Kyrie Irving (Player) and James Harden (Player)
Top starter level: Fred VanVleet (Team option), Julius Randle (Player), Myles Turner, Josh Giddey (Restricted free agency), Jonathan Kuminga (RFA), Cam Thomas (RFA)
Starter level: Clint Capela, D’Angelo Russell, Brook Lopez, Khris Middleton (Player), Naz Reid (Player), Kelly Oubre Jr. (Player), Tyus Jones, Dorian Finney-Smith and John Collins (Player)
Note: Brooklyn, Chicago, Detroit and Memphis are the only teams that project to have cap space in the offseason.
Now that Luka Doncic is ineligible, are there any supermax players to watch?
Barring the unexpected, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will sign the largest per average contract in NBA history this offseason. The four-year, $293 million extension the Oklahoma City Thunder guard is expected to sign comes with an average salary of $73 million per season.
Gilgeous-Alexander is eligible to sign a supermax extension because he was named All-NBA in 2023 and 2024. However, because he has two years remaining starting this summer, the extension is four additional seasons, not five.
Other players to watch include Memphis Grizzlies big man Jaren Jackson Jr. and Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young. Both are supermax eligible if either earns All-NBA or All-Defense. And, like Doncic, San Antonio Spurs guard De’Aaron Fox is ineligible because he was traded.
Detroit Pistons guard Cade Cunningham and Cleveland Cavaliers forward Evan Mobley could see their five-year, $224 million extensions increase to $269 million if either are named All-NBA or All-Defense.
What team controls the offseason? How about a wild-card team?
The offseason leads through Brooklyn.
Not only are the Nets projected to have a league-high $60-plus million to sign free agents or acquire players in a trade, they also have four first-round picks in this year’s draft.
“You have to be poised and position yourself to be able to have that opportunity,” GM Sean Marks said in January. “We’re going to give ourselves the best chance to do that. Now, on whom and when, that’s TBD.”
In total, Brooklyn has 16 first-round picks in the next seven years — 13 are tradable. They also have 17 second-rounders.
In the West, Houston Rockets GM Rafael Stone held true to his word at the trade deadline, when he mentioned no changes were coming to their roster. After a year of evaluating, does that thinking change this offseason?
The Rockets do not have cap space like Brooklyn but have the draft assets and contracts to make a big move in the offseason. Houston has a potential lottery pick from the Phoenix Suns this year along with their first-round picks unprotected in 2027 and 2029. The Rockets can also swap first-rounders with Brooklyn in 2027, plus they own the Dallas Mavericks’ 2029 first-rounder unprotected.
As for the current roster, Houston has a mix of veterans (Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks) and former first-round picks on rookie contracts (Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson, Reed Sheppard, Cam Whitmore). Smith is rookie-extension eligible starting on the first day after the NBA Finals conclude, while the poison pill restrictions for All-Star Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green get lifted on July 1.
Will extensions once again dominate the offseason? What about for the 2022 rookie class?
Expect the trend of players bypassing free agency to continue. Since the 2023 offseason, 67 players have signed veteran and rookie extensions. That increase is a product of the current collective bargaining agreement that allows players to sign for more money before entering free agency.
The veteran players eligible this offseason include Doncic, Young, Fox, Jackson Jr., Nikola Jokic, Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Karl-Anthony Towns, Darius Garland, Ja Morant, Tyler Herro, Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum and Kristaps Porzingis.
Jokic, Booker and Towns each have three years left on supermax extensions signed in 2022. If they decline the $62.8 million player option in 2027-28, each player would then be allowed to extend for three-years, $212 million.
Oklahoma City, the price tag to keep the roster intact is set to get expensive. Including the likely $293-million supermax extension for Gilgeous-Alexander, the Thunder could hand out an additional $592 million in combined extensions to Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams.
Holmgren, Williams and 2023 Rookie of the Year Paolo Banchero are eligible to sign five-year, $246 million extensions. (Banchero could become the first Orlando Magic player to sign a rookie max extension since Dwight Howard in 2007.) Those extensions could increase to $296 million if All-NBA, MVP or Defensive Player of the Year honors are negotiated into the contracts.
Other notable rookie extension candidates include Sacramento Kings forward Keegan Murray, Houston Rockets forward Jabari Smith Jr., Indiana Pacers guard Bennedict Mathurin, Utah Jazz center Walker Kessler and Miami Heat forward Nikola Jovic.
What under-the-radar move at the deadline could impact the offseason?
Memphis GM Zach Kleiman was upfront about acquiring Marcus Smart from the Boston Celtics in 2023 and then trading him to the Washington Wizards at the February deadline.
“We made a move that so far to date, hadn’t worked,” Kleiman said. “I’d much rather own that myself. That starts with me. You cut your losses on a move, and we put ourselves in the best position to build the team going forward.”
The trade has future financial implications because it saved the Grizzlies $21.6 million next season, allowing them greater financial flexibility to renegotiate and then extend Jackson.
The renegotiation option would allow Memphis to increase the $23.3 million salary of Jackson in 2025-26 to $36.5 million and then extend for an additional four-years, $229 million. The extension is $82 million more than what he is currently eligible for in June.
The renegotiate and extend option could be moot. If Jackson Jr. is named Defensive Player of the Year or to an All-NBA team, he would become eligible to sign a five year, $345 million supermax extension.
What makes Aug. 2 so important?
Nearly a month after 2025 free agency begins, all eyes will shift toward Doncic and the Lakers. Ineligible to sign a five-year, $345 million supermax extension because he was traded, Doncic is allowed to sign up to a four-year, $229 million extension with the Lakers, but not until Aug. 2
To recoup the money lost when he was traded, Doncic would be better served financially to sign a three-year, $165 million extension — with a player option in 2027-28. Doncic would then be eligible to sign a five-year, $418 million contract in the 2028 offseason.
Expect Lakers GM Rob Pelinka to continue taking an aggressive approach in adding to the roster.
“We know that our roster has continued work to do to be complete,” Pelinka said earlier this month. “We’re going to build a roster that fits [coach] JJ Redick’s basketball philosophy.”
The Lakers do not have cap space in the offseason but have $70 million in expiring contracts, one first-round pick (2031 or 2032) and the right to swap first-rounders in 2030.
Will the Spurs acquire more help for Victor Wembanyama?
The Spurs accelerated their rebuild around Wembanyama, trading for former All-Star De’Aaron Fox at the deadline. “It just shows that they’re not here to waste time and they’re willing to take the next step on time. We’re moving forward. I think it’s a good step in the building of our future”, Wembanyama said after the trade.
The question for San Antonio heading into the offseason: What’s next?
The Spurs have potentially two lottery picks in June (their own and Atlanta’s) to keep or use in a trade. Fox is to sign a four-year, $229 million extension on Aug. 3, and the Spurs are also allowed to renegotiate his salary for next season with available cap space.
The trade for Fox cost San Antonio three first-round picks but has not depleted their young core around to Wembanyama (Stephon Castle, Jeremy Sochan, Keldon Johnson and Devin Vassell) nor future draft picks. The Spurs have the right to swap first-round picks with Atlanta in 2026, an unprotected first from the Hawks in 2027 and multiple future first-round swaps.
Is there a player under contract that we should watch?
The Suns have a two-month reprieve before the attention shifts to the future of Kevin Durant, who was the subject of trade speculation at the deadline and is set to enter the last year of his contract.
“It’s not a bad thing that people around the league want me to play for them,” Durant said earlier this month. “It’s not a bad thing my organization here is fighting off people to keep me on the team or even dangle me in a trade. It’s part of being in high demand.”
Starting on the first day after the NBA Finals, the 36-year old can agree to a two-year, $124 million extension with the Suns.
Phoenix currently sits on the outside of the top-10 in the West and have $161 million committed in salary next season to Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal. If the roster stays intact, the Suns could spend nearly $450 million in salary plus tax penalties. They are again a second apron team and will face the same restrictions as this year.
Besides Durant, keep an eye on contract negotiations between Trae Young and the Hawks. Young has two years left on his contract after this season and can be a free agent in 2026 if he declines his player option. The four-time All-Star is eligible to sign a four-year, $229 million extension in the offseason.
What new CBA rules could impact the offseason?
The punitive apron rules remain but will be joined by two new rules that further restrict excessive spending.
Teams who finish over the second apron in 2024-25 will have their first-round pick in 2032 frozen and unable to be traded. Current teams include Boston, Minnesota and Phoenix.
There will also be an increased penalty for repeater tax teams (four years in a row or four out five seasons) and for teams spending more than $11.4 million over the tax threshold. For example, the Celtics and Suns tax bills this year could increase from $205 million to more than $400 million next year.
Source: espn.com