The sprint toward the NBA playoffs is fully underway.
With the trade deadline, All-Star break and buyout deadline for playoff eligibility all in the rearview, teams can now shift their focus to improving postseason seeding, escaping the play-in mix or simply getting in at all.
That’s especially true in the Western Conference, where 12 teams can realistically make a run for at least a play-in spot — a number that would have been 13 before Victor Wembanyama’s season-ending diagnosis of deep vein thrombosis in his right shoulder — and several teams believe they are legitimate contenders to win the West.
In our weekly look around the NBA, we’ll dive into a bunch of those teams, from the state of the Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets and their viability as contenders, to recent defensive struggles for the Oklahoma City Thunder and whether the Portland Trail Blazers can pull off a miraculous run to the playoffs.
But any leaguewide look has to begin in Dallas, where on Monday things went from bad to unimaginable when Kyrie Irving suffered a season-ending knee injury.
Jump to a section:
Scouts, execs on Mavs’ next moves
Are Lakers’ and Warriors’ runs for real?
Westbrook’s playoff impact for Denver
Are teams finding a flaw in the Thunder?
Look who’s crashing the West play-in party
What’s next for Kyrie Irving and the Mavs?
Bontemps: The image of Irving, with a tear rolling down his cheek, making two free throws on a torn ACL — mimicking the moment his idol, Kobe Bryant, had 12 years earlier after suffering a torn Achilles tendon — won’t be forgotten by Mavs fans anytime soon.
Neither, though, will the Luka Doncic trade for fans, who only a few hours before Monday’s game, when Irving’s injury occurred, learned their season ticket prices for next season were being increased after a month of ugliness in Dallas. The Mavericks have gone 6-8 since the trade, Anthony Davis has played exactly one half, and Dallas is far from certain of even making the play-in.
“Dallas is just hopeless right now,” one scout said. “There’s just no scoring ability without Kyrie. There’s just not enough talent with all these injuries.”
Windhorst: Amid the waves of criticism of the Doncic trade, there were some whispers from defenders of Mavs general manager Nico Harrison pointing out there shouldn’t be full judgment on his Davis gambit until after this summer, when the Mavs could make additional moves to supplement the new core. Dallas, after all, did get some draft compensation from the Lakers and have a selection of players on varying contracts to use in potential trade talks.
Whatever plans were on the whiteboard, though, have been derailed by Irving’s injury. With his availability for next season uncertain, the Mavs’ summer plans could perhaps shift to, incredibly, their own draft pick.
“When you have a setback like they’ve suffered, you have to identify what you can control and focus on improvement there,” a league executive said. “They don’t control their first-round pick from 2027 to 2030, and this is a good draft.”
Bontemps: Two years ago, Dallas cratered down the stretch to keep their top-10-protected draft pick, landed Dereck Lively II, then immediately turned things around and made it to the NBA Finals. Now, the hope is for a similar result with this group, though doing so with Irving coming off a torn ACL is easier said than done. What’s clear, especially after Harrison’s statement about Irving in the wake of his season-ending injury, is that Dallas isn’t turning away from its new roster.
“They’re doubling down,” a league executive said.
Another exec predicted Irving will opt out of his contract this summer and sign a longer-term deal for a number starting below his $44 million player option to give the Mavericks some wiggle room below the first apron. With Irving also expected to miss a large part of the 2025-26 season, Harrison will need to add reinforcements.
How real is the Lakers’ defense?
Windhorst: The Lakers are the league’s No. 1 defense since Jan. 15, a remarkable turnaround from the first 30 games of the season when they ranked 21st. You can look for different inflection points, but it appears a win at Golden State on Jan. 25 was a big one.
That is when December arrival Dorian Finney-Smith entered the starting lineup and defensive energy specialist Jarred Vanderbilt made his long-awaited season debut.
Before Jan. 15, only five teams were allowing a higher percentage of 2-point attempts versus 3s this season. Those numbers have since flipped; now, only three teams are giving up fewer 2-point shots per game.
And that has been by design. Lakers coach JJ Redick has leaned into a strategy of challenging opponents’ weaker 3-point shooters by aggressively playing off them, guarding the interior and relying on their longer and more athletic lineup to close out on shooters.
“Over the years we’ve seen a lot of teams play this way in the playoffs, they’re playing with the strategy in the regular season,” said one veteran coach whose team recently played the Lakers. “They do it by playing with great energy and with great game-plan discipline. If you’re asking me if this is sustainable, yes, I believe it is.”
Bontemps: If you’re going to give up 3s, it helps when the other team misses. That has played a big part in the defensive surge the Lakers have experienced over the past several weeks. Since Jan. 15, Lakers opponents have shot 33% from 3-point range, tied for the fourth-lowest percentage of any team over that period.
Not only are the Lakers giving up fewer 2-point shots than all but three teams since Jan. 15, those opponents are shooting 51.5% on those shots — the lowest mark in the NBA over that span, and far better than the 55.9% mark opponents were connecting on against the Lakers up until then.
Considering the Lakers significantly improved in these areas — including right at the rim, where they have the fourth-best field goal percentage allowed since Jan. 15 while trading away Anthony Davis and lacking any consistent rim protector — gives some scouts pause about how far L.A. can take this roster, as some of it can be attributed to shooting luck.
“As great a job as JJ is doing, I don’t think it’s sustainable,” one scout said. “[Getting back Jarred] Vanderbilt has helped, and Gabe Vincent has played well, but to say this team is better defensively without AD isn’t going to last.”
Windhorst: One of the reasons there has been some skepticism the Lakers can keep this up over the long haul is they have several weaker defenders teams, in theory, can exploit. It was a regular occurrence to see opponents isolate both Austin Reaves and Luka Doncic. The Lakers lost one of the game’s best rim defenders when they traded Davis and weren’t able to acquire a true replacement when their deal for Charlotte Hornets center Mark Williams was undone. It was just common sense that they’d struggle. But they haven’t.
“They have the personnel of a middle-of-the-pack defensive team but are in second place,” said one league executive. “Their scheme isn’t revolutionary, but it’s getting the job done.”
Said one coach: “They do a good job of covering for Luka. Vanderbilt and Finney-Smith cover a lot of ground, and LeBron roams around the back line.”
Redick has pointed to James’ improved defensive effort as a major factor in the Lakers’ rise. Whether James can keep this energy for the long haul is a reasonable question, but he has a history of showing his true belief in his team’s chances by how hard he plays on the defensive end.
“They didn’t just trade for Luka,” the league exec said. “They also traded for a more engaged LeBron.”
Bontemps: And that is why the Lakers, in the wake of the Doncic trade, are seen in a far different light around the league than they were before. “I think they’re a championship-level team,” said a Western Conference executive. “They’re in that upper echelon.”
And what about the surging Warriors?
Bontemps: While plenty of attention has been paid to the Lakers streaking up the standings, the same can now be said for the revitalized Warriors, as the team improved to 10-2 since Jimmy Butler’s debut with their win in Brooklyn on Thursday night.
The schedule has been soft, outside of wins in Milwaukee and New York, but the upcoming homestand includes matchups against the Knicks, Bucks and Denver Nuggets, and the Butler fit has been seamless alongside Stephen Curry and Draymond Green.
“No one will want to play them in the playoffs,” one scout said. “Jimmy with fresh legs and motivation … honeymoon-phase Jimmy is a motherf—er.”
The interesting thing about Butler’s Warriors tenure is that he hasn’t had many eye-popping performances. He’s averaging 16 points per game and is 2-for-20 on 3-pointers so far. But Warriors coach Steve Kerr singled out Butler’s steadiness on the ball — a direct contrast to the frenetic, often turnover-prone way Curry and Green play — as already having a significant impact, and Butler’s ability to attack the paint brings a different dimension to the Golden State offense.
“People way too quickly forgot what Jimmy Butler can do,” the scout said. “He’s not a franchise player in that he doesn’t do it in the regular season, but when it comes to the playoffs, he’s a franchise player. He’s a superstar when you need to be winning.”
Can Westbrook and Braun hit enough shots for Denver?
Windhorst: In a loss last weekend in Boston, the Nuggets saw Russell Westbrook and Christian Braun combine to shoot 4-of-16 from 3-point range as the Celtics joined a recent trend of ignoring them to pay more attention to Nikola Jokic. It is becoming clear this is going to be one of Denver’s biggest challenges in the postseason.
The Nuggets lead the league in overall field goal shooting, driven by Jokic’s relentless efficiency and his ability to create for others, but they’re last in 3-point attempts because they don’t have enough quality shooters to take them.
“Westbrook is probably playing too many minutes,” one scout said of Westbrook’s 27.5 minutes-per-game average. “They want him to play next to Jokic as much as possible, but that doesn’t mean he should play starter minutes.”
Bontemps: It’s no surprise Westbrook, always a divisive player, remains one when it comes to his potential playoff impact.
“Are there going to be a couple rough games from Russ? Yes,” one scout said. “But then he’ll come back and fill up the box score and dive on the floor and intimidate an opponent. I’d bet on it working four times [out of seven] enough.”
Another scout suggested Braun’s play could make up for Westbrook’s inefficiency, assuming he keeps the starting job that has gone back and forth between him and Westbrook over the past couple of months.
“I’m fully team Christian Braun,” the scout said. “I’d compare him to [New York Knicks guard] Josh Hart. You’d like the [3-point] volume to be up, but he can make them and does a lot of other stuff.”
Windhorst: The Nuggets allowed Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to leave in free agency last summer, declining to match the three-year, $66 million deal he got from the Orlando Magic. A 40% 3-pointer shooter last season and proven strong wing defender, there was some belief the Nuggets might have made a mistake letting KCP walk in an effort to maintain cost control after signing Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon to contract extensions worth more than $330 million combined last summer.
It must be said that within the team, however, the decision to move on is being regarded as a prudent one. Caldwell-Pope is having his worst shooting season since his rookie year in 2013-14. His 31% 3-point percentage ranks as his lowest in eight years. Meanwhile, Braun largely replaced Caldwell-Pope’s role and is having a breakout season. He’s not fully making up for the 3-point shooting but is averaging 15.1 points and a sizzling 57% as an aggressive rim attacker.
“Braun has been very good for them and is way cheaper [$3 million this season],” a rival executive said. “[But] they’re a shooter short in their rotation.”
Should OKC be worried about its suddenly average defense?
Bontemps: Through the All-Star break, the Thunder were not only the NBA’s best defensive team with a 104.5 rating, but they were 3.8 points per 100 possessions better than the second-ranked LA Clippers. That is the same gap between the Clippers and the Miami Heat in 10th.
Since the break, the Thunder have the 21st-ranked defense, including giving up 132 points to the San Antonio Spurs without Victor Wembanyama on Sunday and 128 to the Houston Rockets, who were missing several starters, on Monday.
Still, sources I talked to weren’t concerned about the recent slippage hurting the Thunder’s long-term chances at a title. “They’re going to be just fine. They’re stacked … their depth is so good. The fact is they’re still finding a way to win,” one scout said.
That’s because the Thunder have the league’s best offensive rating over the same span — a staggering 127 points per 100 possessions. And at least some of the defense can be explained away by 3-point luck. Opponents are shooting better against OKC — 38.9% from deep — than any team since the break.
Can Portland really steal a postseason spot?
Bontemps: Remarkably, the Trail Blazers just might. ESPN’s Basketball Power Index projects Portland to finish with 37 wins, one behind the Phoenix Suns and two behind the Mavericks. But Dallas has been slammed by injuries, the Suns have been in free fall for weeks, and even after losing a close one in Boston on Wednesday, Portland has gone 15-7 over its past 22 games and ranks second in the league in defense over that span.
“They have their guys in the right roles now,” an East scout said. “It’s not that they don’t believe in [Shaedon] Sharpe now that he’s their scorer off the bench, but that’s the best role for him right now with this current team. …
“You go up and down the roster, and specifically with the young guys, that’s helped them a lot.”
The irony of Portland passing Phoenix for a play-in spot: Toumani Camara, a throw-in as part of the deal that swapped Jusuf Nurkic and Deandre Ayton before last season, is playing elite perimeter defense. And, in addition to the play of Camara, Deni Avdija and others, credit also is due to coach Chauncey Billups for how he has brought the group along.
“Chauncey has them playing really hard,” a West scout said. “I keep waiting and watching for them to fall back, and they’re just not.”
Source: espn.com