How do the top prospects in action during the NCAA tournament project statistically? As the college postseason begins in earnest, it’s time for the annual first look at my projections for players in the upcoming NBA draft.
This year’s crop of college prospects has been overshadowed with four of the top five in the top 100 prospects by ESPN’s Jonathan Givony playing elsewhere: Victor Wembanyama in France’s LNB Pro A league, Scoot Henderson in G League Ignite and twins Amen and Ausar Thompson in Overtime Elite.
Still, this looks like a relatively strong group of potential one-and-done prospects from a statistical standpoint. In particular, Alabama’s Brandon Miller has played well enough to merit strong consideration at No. 2 behind Wembanyama.
My projections translate performance in NCAA Division I and other levels to an NBA equivalent then adjust for age and position to project value over a player’s next five seasons. Lastly, I add in ranking in the top 100 for the best consensus projection.
For more on how my projections work and past examples, see here.
Note that I do not have projections for the Thompson twins, currently ranked fourth (Amen) and fifth (Ausar), respectively, in the top 10.
1. Victor Wembanyama
Metropolitans 92 | C
Top 100: No. 1
Stats: No. 18
Consensus: 3.7 WARP
I wouldn’t read anything into Wembanyama’s stats-only ranking, which is the product of the deep group of college prospects this year. Among No. 1 picks since 2012, he’d rank fifth by the stats-only measure, behind Zion Williamson, Anthony Davis, Karl-Anthony Towns and Ben Simmons. Wembanyama projects as a dominant paint defender, as only Walker Kessler and Mitchell Robinson have had better block projections among drafted players in my database, which includes prospects as far back as 2003. Wembanyama’s combination of that skill plus a high projected usage rate (22%, which might undersell things based on his higher-usage role this season as the most valuable player in the French Pro A league) is unprecedented. No player in my database has been projected for even a 5% block rate and 20% usage before Wembanyama.
2. Brandon Miller
Alabama | SF
Top 100: No. 3
Stats: No. 3
Consensus: 3.6 WARP
Givony wrote earlier this week that Miller’s productive freshman season at Alabama has created the possibility he could usurp Scoot Henderson as the No. 2 pick. Miller already holds that spot in my projections as one of the best players in the college game. (He is No. 3 in Sports-Reference.com’s box plus-minus, behind a pair of upperclassmen.) At 6-foot-9, Miller’s skill set is NBA-ready. His 103 3-pointers (at a 40% clip) lead all players ranked in the top 100. He hasn’t been quite as accurate inside the arc (51% on 2s), but that’s really the only statistical shortcoming. Unfortunately, the more important questions about Miller entering the draft don’t reflect his play but instead his level of involvement in the tragic death of Jamea Harris.
3. Cam Whitmore
Villanova | SF
Top 100: No. 7
Stats: No. 2
Consensus: 3.2 WARP
Although Whitmore’s return wasn’t enough to turn around a Villanova season that ended in the NIT, his production was solid. My model particularly seems to like Whitmore’s combination of a high steal rate and accurate shooting inside the arc. No other player in this year’s top 100 boasts a projected 2-point rate better than 52% (Whitmore is at 54%) and a projected steal rate of 2.0 per 100 or better. Just three draft picks have hit those marks since 2011: Mikal Bridges, Paul Reed and Zion Williamson.
4. Cason Wallace
Kentucky | G
Top 100: No. 13
Stats: No. 6
Consensus: 2.8 WARP
As a full-time starter, Wallace’s offensive production (11.6 points per game and 4.2 assists per game) is modest for a lottery pick. He’ll have to improve his shooting in the NBA, having hit 35% from beyond the arc. But Wallace’s defensive potential is impressive. His projected 2.1 steals per 100 plays is best among prospects in the top 50 of Givony’s rankings.
5. Gradey Dick
Kansas | G/F
Top 100: No. 11
Stats: No. 13
The NBA on ESPN and the ESPN App
Wednesday, March 29
Mavericks-76ers, 7:30 p.m.
Timberwolves-Suns, 10 p.m.
Wednesday, April 5
Bulls-Bucks, 7:30 p.m.
Lakers-Clippers, 10 p.m.
*All times Eastern
Consensus: 2.6 WARP
Shooting is the primary appeal with Dick, who hit 40% of his 3s while attempting nearly six per game as a freshman. He could increase that rate even more by developing a sidestep move instead of dribbling in for a pull-up 2 after up-faking a defender. For a strong shooter, Dick’s game has few glaring weaknesses.
6. Taylor Hendricks
UCF | PF
Top 100: No. 12
Stats: No. 12
Consensus: 2.6 WARP
Hendricks — the highest-rated recruit ever to commit to UCF — was productive playing for longtime NBA player Johnny Dawkins. In the non-Wembanyama category, no prospect combines better floor spacing (Hendricks hit 40% of his 3s, attempting 4.6 per game) and shot-blocking potential (Hendricks’ 6% block rate ranked second among college prospects in the top 30 of Givony’s rankings).
7. Keyonte George
Baylor | SG
Top 100: No. 9
Stats: No. 16
Consensus: 2.6 WARP
George’s ability to create shots for himself and others at a physical 6-foot-4 is intriguing. His 31% usage ranks second among freshmen who played at least 500 minutes, per Sports-Reference.com, and George adds a solid 2.8 assists per game. To excel in the NBA, he’ll have to become more efficient as a scorer, having hit 35% of his 3s and just 43% inside the arc.
8. Brice Sensabaugh
Ohio State | SF
Top 100: No. 18
Stats: No. 11
Consensus: 2.4 WARP
The one freshman with a higher usage rate than George: Sensabaugh, responsible for a massive 34% of the Buckeyes’ plays. Sensabaugh still scored efficiently thanks to 40.5% accuracy on 3s and 4.9 free throw attempts per game. The question is what else Sensabaugh will contribute in the NBA. He averaged just 1.2 assists and less than a combined steal and block per game.
9. Dereck Lively II
Duke | C
Top 100: No. 22
Stats: No. 9
Consensus: 2.3 WARP
Lively’s 5.4 PPG would be the fourth-lowest average for a first-round pick in the past 15 years, ahead of Harry Giles III, Daniel Orton and Peyton Watson. In terms of advanced stats, Lively has been much more productive after a slow start. He shot 74% on 2s in conference play (mostly above-the-rim finishes), and his 8% projected block rate trails only Wembanyama among top-100 prospects.
10. Scoot Henderson
G League Ignite | PG
Top 100: No. 2
Stats: No. 60
Consensus: 2.3 WARP
After impressing with his development as a shooter in a pair of exhibitions against Wembanyama’s Metropolitans 92 team in October, Henderson didn’t play to that level against G League foes before his season was shut down on Monday. During the G League regular season, Henderson shot just 27% from 3-point range, and his 2-point accuracy slumped to 46.5% in 19 games. There’s still much to like about Henderson’s G League production. His projected assist rate (6.7 per 100 plays) is easily best among top-40 prospects. And Henderson is a strong defensive rebounder — historically a positive indicator for guards. Physical playmakers have been the best bets to outperform their statistical projections. Still, Henderson’s play suggests he shouldn’t automatically be considered the second-best prospect after Wembanyama.
11. Jarace Walker
Houston | PF
Top 100: No. 6
Stats: No. 30
Consensus: 2.3 WARP
As a key starter for No. 1 seed Houston, Walker’s game should be on full display this month. A strong shot-blocker for 6-foot-8 thanks to his leaping ability, Walker has rejected more than 5% of opponents’ 2-point attempts and also boasts a good steal rate for a big man. His efficiency has lagged (.535 true shooting percentage) and will be the pivotal stat for Walker in the NBA.
12. Kyle Filipowski
2023 NBA Draft: Victor Wembanyama
All eyes are on 7-foot-5 French prospect Victor Wembanyama, the 2023 projected top pick. We’ll have complete coverage leading up to the June 22 draft on ESPN.
• Snapshot into life of likely No. 1 pick
• Teams contending for Wembanyama
• Givony’s mock draft: Victor at No. 1
• Stock watch: Wemby’s development
• How to watch Victor Wembanyama
Duke | F/C
Top 100: No. 14
Stats: No. 19
Consensus: 2.3 WARP
The more productive of Duke’s two standout freshmen bigs, Filipowski has the most double-doubles (16) of any freshman, per Sports-Reference.com. His advanced stats aren’t quite as effusive. Because Filipowski isn’t yet an accurate 3-point shooter (30%), his efficiency (.541 true shooting) is middling. He also is a below-average shot-blocker for a college big. Still, Filipowski’s strong free throw rate (77%) suggests he should eventually develop 3-point range in the NBA.
13. Nick Smith Jr.
Arkansas | G
Top 100: No. 8
Stats: No. 23
Consensus: 2.3 WARP
It’s been an uneven season for Smith, who missed two extended periods and had to fit back into a talent-laden Arkansas team that earned an 8-seed after staggering midseason. Smith has made just 42% of his 2-point attempts, fourth lowest among top 100 prospects. Smith was much more productive in the 2021 Nike Elite Youth Basketball League (EYBL) AAU competition, also included in these projections, ranking third among current top-100 prospects in wins above replacement player that year.
14. Brandin Podziemski
Santa Clara | G/F
Top 100: No. 39
Stats: No. 4
Consensus: 2.2 WARP
Givony recently highlighted Podziemski’s rise up draft boards, fueled in part by his strong statistical projections. Podziemski ranks 11th in box plus-minus, second behind Miller among underclassmen, because he has filled up the box score this season with 8.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.8 steals per game to go with his 19.9 PPG on 44% 3-point shooting.
15. Dariq Whitehead
Duke | SF
Top 100: No. 29
Stats: No. 10
Consensus: 2.2 WARP
Whitehead’s stats-only projection owes largely to his strong EYBL play. Coming off a foot fracture in August team workouts that required surgery, Whitehead has hit just 40% of his 2-point attempts as a freshman. Whitehead has been more accurate beyond the arc (41%) and has made an impressive 88.5% of his limited free throw attempts.
16. Anthony Black
Arkansas | SG
Top 100: No. 10
Stats: No. 24
Consensus: 2.2 WARP
Arkansas’ lead ball handler at 6-foot-7, Black has the potential to fit well with teams that like size in the backcourt for defensive versatility. As is often the case with players of that ilk, shooting is the question mark for Black. He has hit 31% of his 3s on limited attempts (2.6 per game) and has shot a middling 70% at the foul line.
17. Jett Howard
Michigan | SG
Top 100: No. 16
Stats: No. 20
Consensus: 2.1 WARP
Playing for his dad, longtime NBA standout Juwan Howard, Jett has averaged 14.2 PPG as a freshman with solid production across the board. Howard’s 7.3 3-point attempts per game are sixth most among players in the top 100, suggesting his 37% accuracy has come on unusually difficult attempts.
18. Donovan Clingan
UConn | C
Top 100: NR
Stats: No. 1
Consensus: 2.1 WARP
NBA on ESPN+
Get access to exclusive original series, premium articles from our NBA insiders, the full 30 for 30 library and more. Sign up now to unlock everything ESPN+ has to offer.
A name to remember for down the road, Clingan was in Givony’s 2024 mock draft; but he doesn’t yet appear in the top 100, having averaged just 13.2 minutes per game playing behind veteran center Adama Sanogo on a loaded UConn team. In that time, Clingan was remarkably productive, averaging 22.1 points, 17.7 rebounds and a whopping 5.6 blocks per 40 minutes for the nation’s fourth-best player efficiency rating (PER), according to Sports-Reference.com. We’ll likely learn more about Clingan as he moves into a larger role down the line.
19. Zach Edey
Purdue | C
Top 100: No. 48
Stats: No. 5
Consensus: 2.1 WARP
The nation’s leader in PER? Edey, the most productive player in college basketball, with 22.3 points, 12.8 rebounds and 2.1 blocks per game. How well the 7-foot-4 Edey’s game will translate to the NBA, where his post-up game won’t likely be quite as effective and teams will attack him in pick-and-roll, remains to be seen. At the very least, there should be a situational role for Edey off the bench, like Boban Marjanovic played in his prime.
20. Will Richard
Florida | SG
Top 100: NR
Stats: No. 7
Consensus: 1.9 WARP
Having transferred from Belmont to play for new Florida coach Todd Golden as a sophomore, Richard improved his efficiency in the SEC, making 40% of his 3-point attempts and 62% of his 2s for an impressive .647 true shooting percentage as a perimeter player. Richard also has racked up steals and blocks at a high rate, a good indicator for pro success.
21. Baylor Scheierman
Creighton | SG
Top 100: No. 40
Stats: No. 14
Consensus: 1.9 WARP
Another transfer, Scheierman has shown his dominance in the Summit League with South Dakota State could translate against better competition. Scheierman has seen his 3-point rate slip from 47% in 2021-22 to 36%, and he plays a lower-usage role on a deep Creighton team, but he remains a valuable contributor. As long as Scheierman proves capable of defending NBA athletes, there’s a role for him in the league.
22. Terrance Arceneaux
Houston | SF
Top 100: No. 67
Stats: No. 8
Consensus: 1.8 WARP
Another long-term play, Arceneaux rated as one of the most valuable players in the 2021 EYBL, but he has seen limited opportunities on a veteran-laden Houston team. He made his first career start in the American Athletic Conference title game. Arceneaux’s steal and block rates have been impressive in limited run, though he’ll have to improve on 26% 3-point shooting thus far.
23. Noah Clowney
Alabama | F/C
Top 100: No. 19
Stats: No. 28
Consensus: 1.7 WARP
The second full-time freshman starter on the top-seeded Crimson Tide, Clowney has NBA-ready physical skills. Taking advantage of Alabama’s strong floor spacing, he has made 68% of his 2-point attempts. Although he has played primarily at power forward in the NCAA, Clowney might spend more time at center in the NBA until he develops as a floor spacer, having hit just 28% beyond the arc.
24. Leonard Miller
G League Ignite | F
Top 100: No. 24
Stats: No. 27
Consensus: 1.7 WARP
Get your favorite live sports, stories and originals with ESPN+, Disney+ and Hulu. Upgrade to a Disney Bundle plan and start streaming something for everyone today!
It was Miller, not Henderson, who led Ignite draft prospects in scoring during the regular season with 17.8 PPG, to go along with 10.9 RPG. Miller also needs work on his shot, having hit less than a 3 per game at 29.5% accuracy across Showcase Cup and regular-season play. But his willingness to do the dirty work and his shot-creation make Miller a deserving first-round pick.
25. Colby Jones
Xavier | SG
Top 100: 28
Stats: No. 25
Consensus: 1.6 WARP
In his third season, Jones has developed into a 38% 3-point shooter, to go along with a high percentage for a guard inside the arc (58%) and 4.3 assists per game. The one concern is that Jones’ free throw shooting (67%) hasn’t shown the same improvement.
26. Jordan Hawkins
UConn | SG
Top 100: No. 20
Stats: No. 33
Consensus: 1.5 WARP
Hawkins has perhaps the purest shot in this year’s draft, having made 37% of his attempts beyond the arc while attempting 7.6 per game thus far. Hawkins is even better at the line (88%), although his accuracy on 2s (43% over two seasons at UConn) is a little disappointing.
27. Josiah-Jordan James
Tennessee | F/G
Top 100: No. 73
Stats: No. 17
Consensus: 1.5 WARP
Considered a potential one-and-done prospect back in 2019-20, James has instead played four years for Tennessee, dealing with injuries at times. His defensive playmaking is particularly intriguing. James is the only prospect in this year’s draft projected for at least two steals per 100 plays and to block 2% of opponent 2-point attempts. Just eight draft picks have reached those marks since 2011, a group highlighted by defensive standouts O.G. Anunoby and Matisse Thybulle.
28. Kel’el Ware
Oregon | C
Top 100: 34
Stats: No. 29
Consensus: 1.4 WARP
Playing behind veteran center N’Faly Dante, Ware has averaged just 15.7 MPG, causing him to drop in the top 100. In that span, Ware has been an impressive shot-blocker, swatting 9% of opponent 2-point attempts. But his 53% 2-point shooting is disappointing for a physical 7-footer.
29. Marcus Sasser
Houston | G
Top 100: No. 35
Stats: No. 32
Consensus: 1.3 WARP
The best player on one of the nation’s top teams, Sasser has developed into a dangerous 3-point shooter (40% over the past two seasons on 7.4 attempts per game in that span) as well as a capable playmaker and ball hawking defender. Sasser’s ability to return from a groin injury suffered in the American tournament will be a key storyline this month.
30. Terquavion Smith
North Carolina State | PG
Top 100: No. 32
Stats: No. 34
Consensus: 1.3 WARP
After withdrawing from the NBA draft last spring, Smith hasn’t enjoyed the kind of a sophomore bounce he might have anticipated. On the plus side, Smith has shown more playmaking ability, doubling his assist average to 4.2 per game. But his accuracy dropped both inside and outside the arc, leaving him with a .494 true shooting percentage that is fifth worst among players in the top 100.
Source: espn.com