After taking two wins on the road in Boston, the New York Knicks head back home to Madison Square Garden for Game 3 against the Boston Celtics. Despite the 0-2 hole, the Celtics are still slight favorites in the Eastern Conference. They take the court at 3:30 p.m. on ABC.
After that, someone will emerge with a 2-1 lead as the Minnesota Timberwolves head to San Francisco to take on the Golden State Warriors. The Warriors won Game 1 before the Timberwolves struck back to even the series at one apiece in Game 2.
Here are some of the bets that stand out for tonight’s games.
Odds are as of publication time. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET
New York Knicks vs. Boston Celtics over 206.5 points (-115). The total for the first game in this series opened a dozen points higher than today’s total. This reads like an overcorrection to a series that has seen Boston endure historic shooting volatility on open looks. Unless there is a lid on the rim in Madison Square Garden, a statistical correction is coming for Boston in the sense of player’s producing closer to their actual rates. The Knicks are also due for some better outcomes on open looks, suggesting this game could still be a half-court grind and include more offense than this total is pricing. A total this low between two teams that finished top five in offensive efficiency on the season is worth pursuing.
Derrick White over 3.5 3-pointers (-125). It’s possible the Celtics dial back the 3-point volume a bit in order to attack the paint against a Knicks frontcourt that often lacks rim protection whenever Mitchell Robinson isn’t on the floor. It’s also possible White benefits from such a shift, as he’d be on the receiving side of catch-and-shoot dishes from the Celtics’ duo of All-Star wings. The other angle is his size advantage over Jalen Brunson and his ability to work in space aside those two higher-gravity wings. There are just too many indicators projecting a revival for Boston’s offense to deny.
Julius Randle over 24.5 total points and assists (-120). It’s been impressive to witness Randle adapt to the Timberwolves’ system as this lower-usage hub who can still overwhelm opponents. Randle is leading the team in potential assists in the playoffs with a robust 11 per game. The ball isn’t sticking with Randle on the block or with face-ups as much as it did with the Knicks, but he’s still making high-leverage decisions with the ball. A more decisive Randle is a key part of why Minnesota now loom as real title contenders. This narrative will continue to grow this evening. There is also value in Randle’s rebounding prop, set at just 6.5 (-120) today. Building out some single-game plays with Randle could be a fun angle for tonight’s matchup.
Projections and Injury Reports
Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Odds by ESPN BET
Players in italics are available in a majority of ESPN Leagues
3:30 p.m. ET
Line: Celtics -5.5 (-120) | Knicks 5.5 (EVEN)
Money line: Celtics -240 | Knicks +200
Total: 207.5 (-105 O, -115 U)
BPI Projection: Knicks by 0.4, straight up 51%, 214.4 total points.
Injury Report:
Celtics: Sam Hauser, (GTD – Ankle)
Knicks: None reported
8:30 p.m. ET
Line: Timberwolves -5.5 (-105) | Warriors 5.5 (-115)
Money line: Timberwolves -215 | Warriors +180
Total: 200.5 (-115 O, -105 U)
BPI Projection: Timberwolves by 1.5, straight up 55%, 211.8 total points.
Injury Report:
Timberwolves: Rob Dillingham, (GTD – Ankle)
Warriors: Stephen Curry, (OUT – Hamstring)
Source: espn.com