The 2025 NBA playoffs continue Saturday with four pivotal games, starting with the Miami Heat hosting the Cleveland Cavaliers (-5.5, 212.5). Cleveland leads the series 2-0.
Next, the Oklahoma City Thunder (-15.5, 233.5) look to sweep the Memphis Grizzlies, will be without star point guard Ja Morant.
Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets take on Kawhi Leonard, James Harden and the Los Angeles Clippers with the Clippers leading the series 2-1.
In the final game of the night, the Houston Rockets (-3.5, 207.5), fresh off a win in Game 2, are at home against a Jimmy Butler III-less Golden State Warriors team in a series that’s knotted at 1-1.
Here are some of the bets that stand out for Saturday’s games.
Odds are as of publication time. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET
Bets for Saturday
Davion Mitchell over 1.5 made 3-pointers (+130)
Between two career playoff series, Mitchell’s 3-point attempt rate is a robust 50.7%. Mitchell’s shot diet from 3-point range was 40.5% during the regular season, confirming there is a sizable uptick in floor-spacing in the postseason. The volume still isn’t so favorable for a pass-first guard, but the plus odds and the fact he has cleared this number regularly in the playoffs helps offset such risk. There is also potential value in taking the over on Mitchell’s points and assists prop as well.
Zach Edey under 18.5 points and rebounds (-120)
There might be an inclination to trust that Edey will need to produce more with Ja Morant sidelined, but the larger sample throughout the season reveals the rookie big doesn’t see a spike in opportunity rates whenever Morant has been off the floor. The real story is the poor matchup for Edey against two mobile and skilled Thunder big men, Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein. Oklahoma City has been stingy in the paint and even in Edey’s best game in Game 3, he failed to produce. With Edey struggling to secure rebounds in the series, this feels like an appropriate under to take.
Nikola Jokic over 9.5 assists (-145)
Jokic has averaged an absurd 20.3 potential assists and averaged nearly a dozen dimes over the first three games of the series with the Clippers. Denver is in a must-win spot so expect another Magic-like passing show from Jokic.
Alperen Sengun over 1.5 blocks and steals (-110)
While Sengun likely is never going to become a true rim protector, he is far better vertical defender under Ime Udoka. He has had a strong steal rate since entering the league and the expectation is for that to continue in a pivotal moment against the Warriors. Sengun could clear this in steals alone if he’s out there for more than 35 minutes.
Projections and injury reports
Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Odds by ESPN BET
All times ET.
1 p.m. ET on TNT
Line: Cavaliers -5.5 (-107) | Heat 5.5 (-107)
Money line: Cavaliers -220 | Heat +185
Total: 212.5 (-107 O, -107 U)
BPI Projection: Cavaliers by 7.3, straight up 73%, 219.2 total points.
Injury Report:
Cavaliers: Darius Garland, (GTD – Toe)
Heat: Kevin Love, (OUT – Personal); Terry Rozier, (OUT – Ankle); Dru Smith, (OFS – Achilles)
3:30 p.m. ET on TNT
Line: Thunder -15.5 (-104) | Grizzlies 15.5 (-110)
Money line: Thunder -1400 | Grizzlies +750
Total: 223.5 (-107 O, -107 U)
BPI Projection: Thunder by 7.4, straight up 73%, 232.3 total points.
Injury Report:
Thunder: Ousmane Dieng, (OUT – Calf); Nikola Topic, (OFS – Knee)
Grizzlies: Ja Morant, (GTD – Hip); Luke Kennard, (GTD – Achilles); Brandon Clarke, (OFS – Knee); Jaylen Wells, (OFS – Wrist)
6 p.m. ET on TNT
Line: Nuggets 6.5 (-107) | Clippers -6.5 (-107)
Money line: Nuggets +215 | Clippers -260
Total: 212.5 (-104 O, -110 U)
BPI Projection: Clippers by 3.2, straight up 61%, 221.3 total points.
Injury Report:
Nuggets: Michael Porter Jr., (GTD – Shoulder); Russell Westbrook, (GTD – Foot); DaRon Holmes II, (OFS – Achilles)
Clippers: Seth Lundy, (OFS – Ankle)
8:30 p.m. ET on ABC
Line: Rockets 3.5 (-110) | Warriors -3.5 (-104)
Money line: Rockets +135 | Warriors -160
Total: 205.5 (-104 O, -110 U)
BPI Projection: Warriors by 2.3, straight up 58%, 213.9 total points.
Injury Report:
Rockets: Jae’Sean Tate, (OUT – Ankle); Jock Landale, (OUT – Knee)
Warriors: Gary Payton II, (GTD – Shoulder); Jimmy Butler III, (GTD – Pelvis)
Source: espn.com