What is the nadir of the 2024-25 Philadelphia 76ers’ season?
Was it when Joel Embiid, in the midst of an injury absence, was suspended in November for a locker room altercation with a media member? Was it when Paul George announced in late February he was pausing his podcast to focus on a playoff push, only to undergo season-ending medical procedures a week later? Or was it in March, when the 76ers lost to the Eastern Conference-worst Washington Wizards at home as part of a late-season mega-tank?
All are worthy moments amid a host of others throughout Philly’s disaster of a season, which now includes Embiid facing arthroscopic surgery on his left knee next week — one month after he had already been shut down for the season.
This wasn’t where the 76ers expected to find themselves in April after seven consecutive playoff appearances and an offseason that seemingly solidified their championship hopes. Philadelphia extended Embiid and Tyrese Maxey, signed George — the biggest star to change teams in free agency in years — and added impressive depth across the positional spectrum over the summer. ESPN’s Kevin Pelton handed out two “A” grades — the 76ers and the Oklahoma City Thunder — when he evaluated every team’s summer.
And while the Thunder are the West’s No. 1 seed and poised to set the NBA record for point differential in a season, the 76ers are now trying to lose as many games as possible to avoid giving Oklahoma City a prime top-six protected pick in June’s draft.
At least the Sixers are tanking well. Since Feb. 4, Philadelphia is an NBA-worst 3-24 with a minus-10.9 net rating.
But that’s just about the franchise’s only success this season. As this fiasco limps to its conclusion, let’s take stock of the 76ers’ massive disappointment: its causes, where it ranks in history and what comes next for the franchise.
Disappointing stars set the stage
Philadelphia’s lost season starts with Embiid, the 2022-23 NBA MVP, who appeared in only 19 games this season and has now missed 49% of the 76ers’ games since he was drafted. Embiid joins Derrick Rose as the only MVPs in the last two decades who didn’t finish in the top 10 in MVP voting two years after he won the award.
In other words: Almost every MVP remains a top-tier superstar for at least a couple seasons afterward. But not Embiid, at least based on the on-court results.
Even if he’d played more games this season, Embiid probably would not have qualified for award consideration on the merits. It wasn’t just that his counting stats and efficiency suffered — his scoring dropped from 34.7 to 23.8 points per game and his true shooting percentage tumbled from 64% to 58% — the 76ers were also outscored when Embiid was on the floor for the first time in his career. He posted a negative-5.5 net rating this season, after finishing plus-8 or better over the past four seasons.
For years, the 76ers’ winning formula had been to dominate Embiid’s minutes and try to tread water without him. But they couldn’t manage the first part this season: Even when the purported big three of Embiid, George and Maxey all played together, the 76ers scored only 109 points per 100 possessions, which ranked in the 17th percentile leaguewide, per Cleaning the Glass.
George, in the first year of a four-year max contract that will carry him through his age-37 season, struggled both to stay healthy and to play to his usual standard when available. After nine consecutive seasons scoring at least 21 points per game, George dropped to 16 this season.
Despite a lower usage rate — meaning, in theory, he could pick his spots more — his efficiency collapsed: Last season, George shot 6% better than the NBA average, but this season, he was 6% less accurate. Advanced stats suggest that George has been less valuable than Tobias Harris, the much-maligned wing he replaced in Philadelphia, who’s now poised to return to the playoffs with the Detroit Pistons.
And while Maxey was much more productive than both of his All-NBA teammates, last year’s Most Improved Player also fell back to earth a bit. With a heavier workload than expected because Embiid and George were so often absent, Maxey still scored plenty of points, but his efficiency suffered. His 3-point accuracy dropped from 37% to 34%, and his turnovers spiked by a third from 1.7 per game last season to 2.4 this season. It seems that Maxey found his ceiling and is better suited as a secondary star rather than a primary option for a playoff team.
Beyond those star setbacks, the other factor that hampered the 76ers’ season from the start was injuries. According to Spotrac, the 76ers have lost more cap dollars to injured players than any other team this season. The New Orleans Pelicans are in second place on that list, and they’ve also underperformed expectations by a massive margin.
Those absences ruined the 76ers’ ability to create any consistency with their rotations. They’ve used 52 different starting lineups thus far, setting a new NBA record.
The biggest disappointment of the century?
The 76ers had a preseason expectation of 50.5 wins, according to the over/under archive at Basketball Reference. Suffice it to say, they aren’t going to come anywhere close to that number. As they keep losing games, they probably won’t even get halfway.
Philadelphia is on track to finish as the NBA’s third-largest underachiever in the 21st century. If the 76ers lose out and finish with 23 wins, they’ll fall short of their expectation by 27.5 wins; if they meet their BPI forecast of 24 wins, they’ll fall short by 26.5.
The worst underachiever of the century is the 2007-08 Miami Heat, who lost Dwyane Wade to injury, traded Shaquille O’Neal and tanked down the stretch, en route to a 15-67 record in Pat Riley’s worst and final season as a head coach.
Second on the list is another team that suffered costly injuries: the 2019-20 Golden State Warriors. After five consecutive Finals appearances, those Warriors were a shell of their former selves: Kevin Durant left for Brooklyn, Klay Thompson missed the entire season and Stephen Curry played only five games. Rookie Eric Paschall led the team in total points.
But those aging Heat and injury-ravaged Warriors weren’t expected to be as good as these 76ers. When we limit the list to only teams with an over/under of at least 50 wins, the 76ers move to the top, beating out the 2021-22 Lakers (52.5 over/under, 33-49 actual record), who also missed the playoffs.
The 76ers were projected to finish with a top-six record this season, according to the over/unders, and now they’re straining with all their might to finish with a bottom-six mark in an effort to keep their pick. Given the combination of preseason hype and their ultimate failure to meet it, one could reasonably argue the 76ers are the single most disappointing team of the 21st century.
What comes after the disappointment?
But wait! In a twist, there might be some light at the end of this drearily dark tunnel.
The history of other teams that have disappointed as profoundly as the 76ers suggests they aren’t doomed forever. This is an example of sabermetrician Bill James’ “Plexiglass principle”: Teams that underperform expectations by such a wide margin often rebound fairly quickly. After all, it’s better to have stars who can generate high expectations in the first place than to have no stars at all.
The 2007-08 Heat collapsed but returned to the Finals three years later, thanks to Wade and a couple famous free agent recruits in LeBron James and Chris Bosh. The 2019-20 Warriors took a step back but won another title two years later. The 2021-22 Lakers stumbled but reached the Western Conference finals the following season.
To their credit, the 76ers’ general catastrophe of a campaign masks some silver linings on the developmental side. First-year guard Jared McCain played only 23 games due to a torn meniscus, but he still leads all rookies with 15.3 points per game despite being picked 16th in last year’s draft. And Quentin Grimes exploded after a midseason trade to Philadelphia. Grimes’ numbers as a 76er (21.8 points, 5.0 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 39% on 3s) look a whole lot like All-Star Jalen Williams’ this season (21.2 points, 5.4 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 36% on 3s), albeit without award-worthy defense.
Next season, among Maxey, McCain and Grimes — assuming the latter remains in Philadelphia through restricted free agency — the 76ers should be able to rely on dynamic perimeter scorers for all 48 minutes. George and Embiid could return healthier after lengthy breaks to recuperate. A top-five pick could join the roster, depending on how the lottery balls bounce. And general manager Daryl Morey will work his usual front office magic to fill in the margins.
Perhaps none of that will matter if Embiid — who will earn $55.2 million next season before his max extension begins in 2026-27 — can’t get right. But at least the 76ers have a foundation. It might look less stable now than it has since they began constructing it in the Process years, but a historic disappointment in one season doesn’t necessarily last forever.
Source: espn.com