With the NBA trade deadline and All-Star break in the rearview mirror, it’s never too early for teams to begin thinking about 2025-26 — especially those who have fallen well short of expectations. For a handful of teams, the upcoming summer presents an opportunity for a fresh start and a chance to rectify their missteps.
That’s small consolation for the New Orleans Pelicans, Philadelphia 76ers and Phoenix Suns — three teams that began the year with playoff (and, in the cases of Philadelphia and Phoenix, championship) aspirations and will almost certainly end up in the lottery.
Two other underachieving teams — the Miami Heat and Minnesota Timberwolves — still have time to turn things around. The Timberwolves, the only one of these five teams with a record above .500, are here because of the combination of a deep Western Conference in which they’re no sure thing to make the playoffs and the expectations generated by last year’s run to the conference finals.
Let’s take a closer look at why things haven’t gone according to plan for these five teams and what they could do to change their fortunes for 2025-26 and beyond — including potentially solving each other’s problems.
Jump to a team:
MIA | MIN | NO
PHI | PHX
Miami Heat
What’s gone wrong
A game above .500 when they dealt Jimmy Butler to the Golden State Warriors ahead of the Feb. 6 trade deadline, the Heat have subsequently lost six of their past nine to slip two games below break-even. With newcomer Andrew Wiggins off to a slow offensive start, Miami ranks 20th in offensive rating in that span.
In the bigger picture, the Heat’s star power took a hit with the Butler trade and a down season from Bam Adebayo. Miami now has just one player on the roster who has been selected for an All-NBA team: little-used veteran Kevin Love, although guard Tyler Herro earned his first All-Star appearance this season.
The Heat have cap flexibility and an attractive market, but they may not be able to make a competitive trade offer for a star player in his prime.
Potential solutions
1. Wait for Doncic or Fox? The Heat have planned around summer 2026, when they have just three players under contract for more than $6 million: Adebayo, Herro and Wiggins, who has a $30.2 million player option. If Wiggins declines the option or is traded to clear his salary, Miami could add a max free agent to its core.
Right now, 2026 free agency looks loaded, with new Los Angeles Lakers star Luka Doncic potentially available. But extensions this summer could take much of the luster off in 2027. Besides Doncic, De’Aaron Fox could also sign an extension after being traded prior to the deadline.
If Doncic or even Fox are potentially available, Miami would be wise to avoid adding long-term salary. If not, the Heat should move away from hoarding 2026 cap space.
2. Consider a Durant trade. In that case, the Heat might not expect to add anyone better in 2026 than Kevin Durant. If so, they should look to speed up the process — and avoid Durant being traded from Phoenix to a situation where he too would extend his contract — by acquiring him this summer.
If Miami could find a taker for Duncan Robinson, whose $19.9 million salary would have to be fully guaranteed for matching purposes, a package built around Wiggins and either Jaime Jaquez Jr. or Nikola Jovic, plus draft picks, would save Phoenix about $20 million in 2025-26 salary.
Meanwhile, the Heat would have enough flexibility to re-sign restricted free agent Davion Mitchell and utilize their taxpayer midlevel exception to build around a core of Adebayo, Durant, Herro and standout rookie Kel’el Ware.
After Brian Windhorst comes to Kevin Durant’s defense, Stephen A. Smith calls him out.
3. Be active in free agency. If Miami isn’t on track to land a star, the Heat need to nail free agency next summer like the LA Clippers did this season. By waiving Robinson, who has just $9.9 million of his $19.9 million salary guaranteed, Miami would gain access to the non-taxpayer midlevel exception. The Clippers used their non-tax midlevel to add Derrick Jones Jr., and they landed Nicolas Batum (biannual exception) and Kris Dunn (sign-and-trade) for smaller contracts to replenish their depth.
That strategy is unlikely to work as well for the Heat, given the difficulty of replicating Norman Powell’s career year at age 31 and the Clippers’ second-ranked defense, but Malik Beasley would be an ideal target given his role in the Detroit Pistons’ turnaround. Failing that, the Heat could pursue Tyus Jones or Chris Paul as playmaking upgrades or bet on Ty Jerome repeating his breakout campaign for the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Minnesota Timberwolves
What’s gone wrong
The Timberwolves have really had two different seasons, with the demarcation line Donte DiVincenzo’s toe injury back in late January. With DiVincenzo healthy, Minnesota was mired around .500 because of limited depth (just eight players were averaging more than 3.6 PPG) and Mike Conley’s poor start at age 37 (he was shooting 35% from the field and had been replaced as a starter by DiVincenzo).
Removing one of the eight players in Timberwolves coach Chris Finch’s preferred rotation figured to be catastrophic for Minnesota. Instead, the Timberwolves have stayed above .500 despite also losing fellow newcomer Julius Randle for the past 13 games. Rookies Jaylen Clark, Rob Dillingham and Terrence Shannon Jr. have blossomed into valuable contributors, while Conley has rediscovered his 3-point shot, hitting 46% from beyond the arc.
Potential solutions
1. Stay the course … and lean on youth. Of these teams, Minnesota has the most playoff upside to climb off this list. If the Timberwolves’ rookies keep playing well once Randle returns, their depth will flip from a weakness to a strength. Minnesota’s plus-2.8 point differential is fifth best in the West, and the Timberwolves have performed well against the conference’s best teams. Minnesota split with the West-leading Oklahoma City Thunder and is 2-0 against the Denver Nuggets.
Shedding Karl-Anthony Towns’ supermax salary makes running it back far more plausible for Minnesota. If Randle picks up his $29.5 million player option, the Timberwolves could pay Nickeil Alexander-Walker (an unrestricted free agent) and Naz Reid (who has a $15 million player option) about $27 million combined in 2025-26 while staying under the second apron. They could also start the season over the apron and get under by shedding salary prior to the deadline.
2. Dodge the tax … and lean on youth. The less rosy viewpoint is Minnesota will almost certainly start the playoffs as a lower seed, and that makes it hard to justify a large luxury-tax bill in a midsize market. If Randle declines his player option, the Timberwolves could let him walk and re-sign Alexander-Walker and Reid while staying out of the tax entirely.
In that case, Minnesota would be betting big on its young talent continuing to take a step forward. Clark and Shannon have thrived during Randle’s absence, with Clark — recently converted from a two-way contract — emerging as a starter and Shannon averaging 9.7 PPG in the month of February.
Depending on the price points for Alexander-Walker and Reid, the Timberwolves might also have access to their non-taxpayer midlevel exception to sign a better-shooting replacement for Randle such as Chris Boucher, Trey Lyles or Guerschon Yabusele.
3. A win-now move for Durant. The Athletic reported that Minnesota and Phoenix had conversations about a Durant trade before the deadline. Adding a player who will turn 37 before next season would further accelerate the timetable for a Timberwolves team whose best player (Anthony Edwards) is 23, but Edwards has made no secret of his fondness for Durant’s game.
Making a Durant trade work financially would be complicated. Realistically, it would probably include signing-and-trading Reid to another team. In concert with Randle picking up his player option, that might allow Minnesota to send out more salary than Durant’s $53.3 million salary for 2025-26.
It would surely also cost the Timberwolves some of their young talent. But a core of Edwards and Durant flanked by strong defenders Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels would make Minnesota a contender.
New Orleans Pelicans
What’s gone wrong
Injuries, but not just injuries. The Pelicans never got to see their three top players (Brandon Ingram, Dejounte Murray and Zion Williamson) play together, with each of the three missing extended stretches before Ingram was traded to the Toronto Raptors at the deadline. Herb Jones was also limited to just 20 games before undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery.
Although New Orleans didn’t reach this season’s potential, center was an issue after the team let starter Jonas Valanciunas walk in free agency. Yves Missi has held his own defensively but been stretched on offense as a rookie starter. And Murray never played at the high level the Pelicans expected before suffering an Achilles rupture that will surely sideline him for the start of 2025-26.
Potential solutions
1. Use that lottery pick wisely. Of the teams in this group, New Orleans has the best chance of converting winter misery into spring joy. Projections using ESPN’s basketball power index (BPI) give the Pelicans a 13% chance of winning the lottery, and a 62% chance of picking in the top five.
Adding a top prospect to a core of 25-and-under talent including Missi, Williamson (who’s averaging 26 PPG over the last month) and breakout starter Trey Murphy III would give the Pelicans far more long-term upside. And, down the road, having a new star to build around might allow them to move Williamson in pursuit of more stable production.
2. Add at center on a budget. The downside of New Orleans’ draft fortunes is it will cut into the Pelicans’ cap flexibility. Between their own pick and one coming from the Milwaukee Bucks (top-four protected), they’ll again be pushing the luxury tax line before attempting to add any veterans to their roster. Unless New Orleans drafts another center, it may be worth considering trading Kelly Olynyk (or waiving him and stretching his $13.4 million salary over three seasons) to create some flexibility.
Veteran Brook Lopez would be an ideal fit for the Pelicans if they could land him using the non-taxpayer midlevel exception, but Clint Capela and Luke Kornet would be more budget-friendly options who could tag team with Missi in the middle.
3. Be patient with Murray and rely on backcourt veterans. So long as New Orleans can avoid other consequential injuries, the team’s backcourt depth should allow the Pelicans to avoid rushing Murray back to the lineup next fall. CJ McCollum and Jose Alvarado are a capable combination at point guard, while Jones and Murphy are long-term starters on the wing.
New Orleans is a bit thin behind them, with 2023 first-round pick Jordan Hawkins slow to develop as a shooter (he’s hitting just 33% beyond the arc in his second NBA campaign) and Bruce Brown Jr. an unrestricted free agent. However, Brandon Boston Jr. has been a nice find who can be part of the rotation, and the Pelicans can address that spot in the draft. If Murray returns at something close to full strength, his addition can strengthen the Pelicans’ depth midseason.
New Orleans wasn’t good enough in the first place to follow the Memphis Grizzlies’ path from an injury-plagued year in the lottery to a top-four spot in the West, but given reasonable health, the Pelicans should be in the play-in mix during 2025-26.
Philadelphia 76ers
What’s gone wrong
It would be easier to list what has gone right in Philadelphia this season, highlighted by rookie Jared McCain’s strong start prior to a meniscus repair and Guerschon Yabusele’s play on a minimum contract.
The Sixers’ veteran star duo of Joel Embiid and Paul George has rarely been healthy and has been ineffective even when they’ve been on the court together prior to Friday’s announcement that Embiid will miss the remainder of the season to focus on treatment and rehabilitation.
Worse yet, Philadelphia will keep its first-round pick only if it lands in the top six. Otherwise, it’s headed to the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Potential solutions
1. With Embiid out, consider shutting down George. In terms of championship contention, none of the 76ers’ other issues matter unless Embiid is able to play at a top-10 level. Embiid wasn’t exactly bad individually when he was on the court, sporting an above-average .580 true shooting percentage on 35% usage. But he never looked right or fit into the team context. Philly went just 8-11 in games Embiid played, including five losses during the team’s current nine-game skid.
In particular, Embiid was compromised defensively. Opponents shot 61% inside 5 feet with Embiid as the primary defender, per Second Spectrum data on NBA Advanced Stats, as compared to 51% in 2023-24. Before he was officially shut down, Embiid acknowledged he wasn’t right.
“I probably need to fix the problem, and then I’ll be back at that level,” he told reporters last month. “But it’s hard to have trust when you’re not yourself.”
Now, attention turns to George, who confirmed last month’s report from ESPN’s Shams Charania that he has been receiving pain-killing injections to play through pain in his left pinky finger. With no hope of Embiid leading a late charge through the play-in tournament, there’s no reason for George to play hurt.
Kendrick Perkins joins “SportsCenter” and addresses how the 76ers and Joel Embiid are going to plan for the future.
2. Do everything possible to keep the pick. Finishing the lottery in the top six and retaining this year’s first-round pick would be the best possible outcome for the 76ers’ season.
As I wrote Friday when Embiid was ruled out, Philly could plausibly pass the Pelicans and Toronto Raptors in the lottery standings, which would increase their odds of keeping the pick from 48% as the No. 6 seed entering the lottery all the way to 81% if they were fourth going in.
3. Rebuild frontcourt depth. The ability for Sixers president of basketball operations Daryl Morey to conjure up rotation-caliber players has always been key to his dogged pursuit of stars. Although depth wasn’t the primary reason for Philadelphia’s failure, it disappointed nonetheless. Backup centers Andre Drummond and Adem Bona haven’t provided the cover the 76ers expected behind Embiid, and Caleb Martin wasn’t the strong role player Philadelphia expected.
As a result, the Sixers have given more than 3,500 minutes to players my metric rates below replacement level this season, the league’s eighth-highest total. Philly already began retooling its depth at the deadline by swapping Martin for Quentin Grimes, who’s been an upgrade on injured guard Eric Gordon.
Still, the 76ers will be searching for frontcourt solutions. It’s tough to outline options because Philadelphia’s budget remains uncertain. In addition to whether the Sixers keep their pick, that will also be influenced by decisions on player options for Drummond ($5 million) and Kelly Oubre Jr. ($8.4 million).
Phoenix Suns
What’s gone wrong
Expensive bets on Bradley Beal and Jusuf Nurkic failed, leaving the NBA’s most expensive payroll on the outside of the play-in race looking in with no potential lottery pick to show for it. The Suns don’t control their first-round pick at any point in the next seven drafts, and their 2032 first-rounder will be frozen from trade because they are over the second luxury tax apron.
Beyond that, Durant trade rumors before the deadline make a breakup with the organization all but inevitable. ESPN’s Brian Windhorst reported on “NBA Today” that “they’re going to trade him [this summer]. And he knows that.”
The challenge for Phoenix is how to get better by trading its best player.
Potential solutions
1. Get below the second apron. Including the $5 million non-guaranteed salary of starting center Nick Richards, whom Phoenix would be foolish to waive after acquiring him midseason, the Suns are committed to enough salary ($208-plus million) to nine players to exceed the second apron. So Phoenix must shed salary to get below the apron, most likely in a Durant trade.
The Suns’ 2032 first-round pick isn’t at risk of moving to the end of the round unless they’re a second-apron team in two of the next four seasons. Still, dodging the second apron would give Phoenix the flexibility to aggregate salaries in trades, as well as keeping the team’s 2033 first-rounder from being frozen.
2. Move on from Durant. With the Warriors acquiring Butler after Durant said he was uninterested in a return to the Bay Area, finding a new home for Durant might be trickier than the Suns prefer. The Houston Rockets have been previously linked with a move for Durant given their combination of draft picks — most notably Phoenix’s own, including this year’s likely lottery selection — and young talent.
If Houston would rather wait and see whether Devin Booker or another star shakes loose, the Suns probably won’t come close to recouping their investment in Durant. Most likely, Phoenix is looking at a lower-priced replacement such as Randle or Wiggins, a couple of first-round picks or equivalent prospects and more cap flexibility.
3. Address the center position in free agency or the draft. At the time of the Richards trade, I noted that only one position group in the league (Utah Jazz point guards) had more combined wins below replacement level by my WARP metric than the Suns’ centers.
Adding Richards has helped, but he’s better suited as a backup on a contending team than a starter. Whether it’s through a Durant trade or the draft (Phoenix will have the Cleveland Cavaliers’ first-rounder, likely either No. 29 or No. 30), it’s imperative for the Suns to find a better rim protector in the center spot.
If that player could space the floor in Mike Budenholzer’s offense, all the better. Centers projected in that range in the latest mock draft from ESPN’s Jonathan Givony and Jeremy Woo include Florida’s Alex Condon, Georgetown’s Thomas Sorber and Creighton’s Ryan Kalkbrenner.
Source: espn.com