Each week in the NBA is its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and fantasy managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true … don’t be surprised!
Don’t be surprised if … Paolo Banchero averages 30.0 PPG
Banchero was not someone I was targeting this preseason, noting in my Do Not Draft article that the statistics from his first two NBA seasons simply did not live up to the hype and draft-day attention of his being a third-round pick. One week into the season, that proclamation looked silly, as Banchero produced fantasy gold, averaging 29.0 points, 8.8 rebounds, 5.6 assists and 48.0 ESPN fantasy points per game. For perspective, only four players are averaging 29.0 PPG this season. Additionally, just 11 players are averaging 48.0 fantasy PPG, with only 15 individuals doing so over the past 30 days.
Then, Banchero suffered a torn right oblique, and on Halloween, we learned he would miss significant time. Entering Thursday’s game with the Timberwolves, Banchero has missed 33 of the team’s 38 games, and he may be handled carefully upon his return. We can view Banchero’s value in both positive and negative ways. Ultimately, no matter how he performs over the next four months, Banchero was not a wise third-round value in fantasy drafts because he missed 33 games due to his lengthy absence. Then again, if he averages 30.0 PPG and 48.0 fantasy points, and he delivers fantasy championships, we may forgive him for those missed games.
The heralded Banchero was the league’s top rookie in 2022-23, averaging 20.0 PPG, but he became a tad overrated for fantasy last season, when he upped that mark to “only” 22.6 PPG while posting a disappointing 6.9 RPG for his pedigree, height, talent and position. He shot poorly from both the field (45.5%) and free throw line (72.5%), and he ranked fifth in the league in turnovers. Those that reached for Banchero in the first three rounds of last season’s drafts did not receive the proper numbers befitting the value. There was little to suggest Banchero would start averaging 29.0 PPG and 8.8 RPG as he did, and there is no guarantee he does this again once he returns.
However, the decimated Orlando Magic are missing big scorer SF/PF Franz Wagner (also due to an oblique injury) and PG/SG Jalen Suggs is dealing with a back injury. Top reserve C Moritz Wagner (knee) is done for the season. This team covets scoring, and Banchero should get all the shots he wants, and then even more shots. PG Cole Anthony, C Wendell Carter Jr. and SG/SF Kentavious Caldwell-Pope carried the scoring load in Monday’s surprising win over the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden. Banchero gets every chance to carry the load as soon as he returns. It may be a surprise if he doesn’t pile on the points.
Banchero’s first week of the season was not quite perfect, as he made only 64% of his free throws. Since he went to the line 11.8 times per game, that meant a lot of missed shots. This is Giannis Antetokounmpo stuff, which really harms fantasy value. It was only a week, such a short sample, and Banchero did not shoot that poorly from the line over his first two seasons.
Banchero could average 30.0 PPG but if he shoots 64% from the line moving forward, with a league-leading average of chances, it may damage fantasy value more than the extra pure scoring. Those misses matter. Antetokounmpo, averaging a league-leading 31.6 PPG (along with a solid 11.6 RPG and 6.1 APG) would be a far more valuable fantasy option, shooting 70% from the line. Instead, he is at a career-worst 60.5% and only fourth in average fantasy points per game.
We would love to be proven wrong on the preseason opinion of Banchero being an underwhelming, overrated fantasy option in accordance with his draft-day value. His first week was tremendous. We root for players to thrive, not struggle or disappoint. Really, we do! So let us see if Banchero can return this week and redeliver statistics from that glorious first week — with the sudden pop in scoring, the new, long-awaited interest in rebounding, and perhaps even shooting better from the free throw line! It all starts this week.
Don’t be surprised if … Desmond Bane ends up a top 25 fantasy option
The Memphis Grizzlies are one of the top five teams in the league, but their stellar 24-13 record is only partly due to the efforts of superstar PG Ja Morant. After all, Morant has played in barely half of the team’s games, and he has averaged only 21.2 PPG and 36.0 ESPN fantasy points per game, down from 25.1 PPG and 45.3 fantasy points last season (but over only nine games). Morant has not played anything like a fantasy superstar this season, and we know durability is hardly a strength. He will not play in 65 games this season, just like each of the past four seasons.
Morant was the first Memphis player selected in most ESPN average live drafts, though he was an obvious choice for my Do Not Draft list. (Not that people listened.) Standout C/PF Jaren Jackson Jr. came next and has been worth it, but where was Bane? His ADP was No. 63, probably due to him missing half of last season with various injuries and people expecting a healthy Morant to eat into those numbers. Bane averaged 23.7 PPG and 41.4 ESPN fantasy points per game last season, outside the top 50 in total points, but No. 33 in average points. He deserved a better ADP fate.
Bane started this season with another injury, missing a few weeks of November, but he has delivered excellent statistics during the past 30 days. If he can get healthy after missing Monday’s game due to a sprained ankle, watch out. Bane has averaged only 20.0 PPG during the past month (still up from his season average of 16.7 PPG), but 5.7 RPG, 6.9 APG and 44.2 fantasy points (21st in the league in that span). Since then, Bane has edged out Jackson in fantasy points — and a lot of other great players, too, including Stephen Curry, Jalen Brunson, Damian Lillard and Devin Booker.
The underrated Bane became a more aggressive ball distributor last season, by necessity, averaging 5.5 APG, and few probably thought he would be capable of being a top-10 option in assists. Bane has seven or more assists in nine of his past 11 games. He’s piling on the steals, too. We all love getting assists from players who are not eligible at point guard. In roto formats and points, it is a nice advantage. Morant is week-to-week with his latest malady, a shoulder problem, and while we love watching his magician-like play, he doesn’t do so enough. Keep expectations in check and watch Bane keep making plays.
Don’t be surprised if … Bradley Beal becomes droppable
The Phoenix Suns are looking for any kind of spark to their season, and this week that has meant moving veteran swingman Beal to a reserve role. In the first game this week at Philadelphia with no paint presence to test defenders (thanks, Joel Embiid!), Beal hit 10 of 15 field goals and scored 25 traditional points, with 54.0 ESPN fantasy points. It was his best fantasy game of the season. The next day, in Charlotte, Beal scored just 10 points in 31 minutes.
The Beal who used to score 30.0 PPG for the Wizards is long gone. He’s only 31, so not exactly on the edge of retirement, but he is scoring only 17.8 PPG and providing little else statistically. We used to count on him for assists, and he distributed 5.0 APG in his first season for the Suns (in 53 games). But this year, with a more natural point guard in Tyus Jones directing the offense, Beal is at 3.2 APG. He did have five assists in each of his games off the bench. Perhaps it is a sign, perhaps not.
Regardless, Beal’s 32.3 fantasy points per game aren’t so impressive any longer, outside the top 75 for fantasy options. He is barely outscoring Jones, who came with far less fanfare in drafts — if he went in drafts at all. Beal averaged 35.5 fantasy points last season. It’s not dramatically different from today, but Beal just isn’t that valuable.
He is a clunky fit in the Suns offense and a problem on defense. He also hasn’t suited up in more than 60 games since the 2018-19 campaign. Beal remains worth rostering at 32.3 fantasy points per game, but if his new role means that number drops to more like 27 fantasy points, then it may be time to look elsewhere.
Source: espn.com