Each week in the NBA is its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and fantasy managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true … don’t be surprised!
Don’t be surprised if … Jonas Valanciunas is Washington’s top fantasy option
One of the reasons why some fantasy managers opt to fade the top expected rebounding centers, such as the Timberwolves’ Rudy Gobert, Hawks’ Clint Capela and Suns’ Jusuf Nurkic, is because of their rough free throw percentage. This is a bigger issue in roto/categories formats than points leagues, and these fellows don’t get to the line as much as Karl Malone used to, but it still matters. In fact, these three gentlemen, each of whom averaged double-digit rebounds last season and probably will do so again, ranked 107th, 108th and 109th among the 110 scoring title qualifiers in free throw percentage, and Andre Drummond was last. There is a theme here.
So it is that some of us may wait a bit longer in drafts for centers who specifically don’t hurt us in a category, and Valanciunas has long been one of those underrated options. OK, so Valanciunas did not average double digit boards for last season’s Pelicans, breaking a four-year streak of doing so, but who is stopping him on these terrible Wizards? Richaun Holmes and Marvin Bagley III? Valanciunas will see his minutes rise, along with his scoring numbers, and he is a career .789 shooter from the line. He is durable, consistent and reliable. He is underrated.
Wizards SF/PF Kyle Kuzma goes earlier in ESPN standard drafts, as he averaged 22.2 PPG last season and may do so again, and SG/PG Jordan Poole is still there, but these fellows don’t do much else to aid a fantasy team. Last season, Kuzma averaged 36.7 ESPN fantasy points per game. Poole was at 29.1 points. Valanciunas averaged only 28.4 points, but he also played only 23.5 MPG in New Orleans, and he barely got to shoot when he was out there. I see a mild Valanciunas renaissance coming. He averaged better than 36 fantasy points per game as recently as 2022. Huge opportunity awaits. Expect something big this season.
Don’t be surprised if … Lonzo Ball isn’t worth it in fantasy
We should root for Ball to return to past statistical relevance, and perhaps he will in time, but it is hard to make much of a case for him being rostered in ESPN standard leagues this season. Ball is the first player to undergo cartilage transplant surgery in his knee, and the Bulls will keep him on a strict minutes restriction, not just for the next few weeks, but for the entire season. At least the 76ers will let Joel Embiid handle 38 minutes for the rare occasions when he is active. Ball is not the same. He will be a backup point guard with little relevant upside for fantasy. This is a cool story that he is back, but only to a point for fantasy.
Once upon a time, before he missed two full seasons, Ball served a role in fantasy, mainly for those targeting assists/steals in roto/category formats, but he didn’t score much in the traditional sense and he was a poor shooter, though he improved on 3-pointers and free throws his most recent seasons. Hey, this isn’t meant to be mean, and if you want to roster a compromised player on a minutes restriction who won’t play back-to-backs and was already vastly overrated in fantasy prior to the major knee problems, go for it. Ball isn’t going to be delivering close to his career averages of 11.9 PPG, 6.2 APG and 1.6 SPG this season.
Ball is rostered in more than 20% of ESPN standard leagues, which isn’t a notably high figure, but it is higher than that of the actual and enticing Jazz starting point guard (Keyonte George), the future PG for the Timberwolves (Rob Dillingham), an intriguing C option for the Hawks (Onyeka Okongwu), a young scorer for the Pacers (Bennedict Mathurin), the starting PF in San Antonio (Jeremy Sochan), the underrated Raptors backup C (Kelly Olynyk) and myriad others. Oh, and speaking of cool stories with marginal fantasy relevance, what are you doing rostering the Lakers‘ Bronny James (15.7%)? You won’t be in a week.
Ball aside, this is quite an interesting Bulls team for fantasy. Four Bulls are rostered in more than 86% of ESPN standard leagues, and one can make the case that each of those players is worthy of a top 50 spot in drafts. C Nikola Vucevic is the only one who made it. PG/SG Coby White and SG/SF Zach LaVine are close, and new SG/SF Josh Giddey (he is really the point guard now, but whatevs) should be. This team may not defend much (much?!?) or win half the time, but it intrigues.
White emerged as a fantasy star last season, but mostly because LaVine played in only 25 games. Can they coexist, now that each is healthy, and SF/PF DeMar DeRozan went to Sacramento? Sure, they can, but don’t be surprised when Giddey is the better fantasy option than either of them, as he piles on the assists, outrebounds them and shoots better.
Don’t be surprised if … Julian Strawther becomes a relevant Nugget
The Denver Nuggets are obvious championship contenders again and perhaps there isn’t any room for someone to force their way into the team’s scoring circle of trust, occupied by C Nikola Jokic, PG Jamal Murray, SF Michael Porter Jr. and PF Aaron Gordon. New sixth man PG Russell Westbrook makes it five Nuggets rostered in at least 72% of ESPN standard leagues. No other Nuggets are rostered in more than 2% of leagues!
SG Christian Braun figures to slide into the starting spot vacated by Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (now with Orlando), and good for the Kansas product, but we should keep our collective eyes — mainly for deeper leagues, one supposes — on Strawther as well. Strawther was a late first-round pick in 2023, and the Gonzaga product will be a valuable 3-point threat. He wasn’t so much as a rookie, earning 10.9 MPG, but check out the recent preseason numbers: Strawther averaged 2.6 3PM and he shot 50% on them in 28 MPG over five contests. He averaged 18.8 PPG. The Nuggets wanted to see what they had. They saw a guy that can shoot.
Braun can’t shoot like that, and his upside, both statistical and otherwise, is a bit limited. Strawther boasts considerable shooting upside, especially for what this offense seems to need. Caldwell-Pope shot 40.6% on 3-pointers, attempting 4.1 per game, good for third on the team after Porter and Murray. We cannot say Strawther simply leapfrogs Braun and handles a similar workload to Caldwell-Pope, but it does seem reasonable. Opportunity is there. For those seeking later-round 3-point volume and unhappy they missed out on Pelicans SF/SG Trey Murphy III, Warriors SG/SF Buddy Hield, Pistons SG/SF Tim Hardaway Jr. and SG Malik Beasley, among others, look at Strawther.
Source: espn.com