Each week in the NBA is its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and fantasy managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true … don’t be surprised!
Don’t be surprised if … Rudy Gobert is no longer a top-50 fantasy option
Gobert is having his worst season in nearly a decade, and things are not improving. Gobert is averaging 10.6 PPG, 11.0 RPG and 1.5 BPG, relevant fantasy numbers, but far below expectations. He wasn’t supposed to be Clint Capela. Gobert averaged 14.0 PPG, 12.9 RPG and 2.1 BPG as last season’s NBA Defensive Player of the Year. While we all preach patience, Gobert is showing few signs of those numbers this season, barely among the top 10 in rebounds and blocks. Then again, the Timberwolves, who went to the Western Conference finals last season (losing to Dallas), look a bit dysfunctional these days. Just ask star Anthony Edwards.
Gobert scored four points over 38 minutes in Minnesota’s most recent game, a 114-106 loss to the Warriors, and he was a team-worst minus-12. He earned his nine rebounds and three blocks, but Gobert is attempting over two fewer field goal attempts than last season, almost an afterthought on offense. In fact, he ranks 181st among 263 players in field goal attempts per game. Guys getting half the minutes of Gobert are shooting more (Jay Huff, Cameron Payne, etc.). Last season, Gobert got 8.1 field goals per game, 133rd in the league. OK, so he isn’t Luka Doncic, but still, he must score more than this.
Don’t blame Edwards and Randle. Edwards is shooting more, but not that much more. Randle isn’t having nearly the season Towns is or close to what he did for the Knicks the past five seasons, but he is a top-50 fantasy option despite decreased usage. This is about Gobert being less assertive in facets of the game. This version is not a top-50 fantasy option, though there is some good news. Gobert is shooting 78.8% from the free throw line, well above his career 64.2% mark. Fantasy managers would prefer the version of Gobert from the past decade.
Don’t be surprised if … Karl-Anthony Towns remains a top-10 fantasy option
The way Towns has been playing, this is not much of a reach. He entered Wednesday’s NBA Cup game with the Hawks averaging 13.3 RPG, just off the mark from league-leader Nikola Jokic. Towns boasts 13 consecutive double-doubles, and these are major numbers. He missed two games in that span, but any concerns Knicks fans or fantasy managers had of Towns failing to find any comfort level after the trade from the Timberwolves are unfounded. Towns entered Wednesday averaging 49.7 ESPN fantasy points per game, a top-10 mark. Last season, he averaged 37.6 fantasy PPG.
In retrospect, we can see why Towns is scoring and rebounding more. With C Mitchell Robinson recovering from offseason ankle surgery and not expected back until January (at least), and Isaiah Hartenstein thriving for the Thunder, someone has to rebound for New York. SF/SG Josh Hart is 6-foot-4 yet claiming 8.3 RPG. A healthy PF/C Precious Achiuwa will help. Towns averaged a paltry (for him) 8.2 RPG over the past two seasons upon veteran C Rudy Gobert joining Minnesota. Now that is a problem for Julius Randle, who came in the Towns deal.
Towns is scoring 25.1 PPG in part because he is hitting 3-pointers at a career-best 44.7% rate, but also because PG Jalen Brunson is content with being more of a facilitator than he was last season when he averaged 28.7 PPG. This season he is at 25.2 PPG, attempting over four fewer field goal attempts per game. Brunson entered Wednesday having scored less than 25 points in four out of five December games, so that seems like a trend. On the positive side, he is more efficient now, distributing a career-high 7.8 APG with no uptick in turnovers.
Timberwolves fans and fantasy managers may have worried that we had already seen the best of Towns in his early-20s, but this first season in New York may end up being his best fantasy season yet. He’s never led the league in anything except fouls, but he is right there for rebounds, notching his highest PPG average in five seasons and lowest turnover rate since 2018. Fantasy managers should feel confident these fantastic numbers will continue.
Don’t be surprised if … Goga Bitadze becomes very popular
Meanwhile, the Magic will not be winning this season’s NBA Cup — not after losing to the Bucks on Tuesday night — but this team is 17-10 and well on its way to hosting a first-round playoff series despite oblique injuries costing them their top players. PF/SF Paolo Banchero hasn’t played since October. He may return this month. SF/PF Franz Wagner, the No. 5 scorer in ESPN points formats, tore his right oblique last Friday. We may not see him again until around the Super Bowl.
PG/SG Jalen Suggs is the obvious beneficiary of these absences, and he delivered a career-high 32 points (55 fantasy points) versus the Bucks, but he also needed 26 field goal attempts to do so. Suggs, already rostered in 73.9% of standard leagues as of Wednesday, will see far more usage without the stars around but he may not be a great fantasy option. He earns steals and fires up the 3-pointers, but he doesn’t do much rebounding or passing. What if Bitadze is the real short-term fantasy winner here?
Bitadze, the 6-foot-11 Georgian in his sixth NBA season, is starting to give off Jakob Poeltl statistical vibes, after consecutive double-doubles this week. In his first 20 games, Bitadze didn’t attempt more than 10 field goals once, and he averaged 21 MPG. In the past two games, the Bucks loss and a win over the Suns, he played 69 minutes, scoring 33 points with 30 rebounds and eight assists (five more than Suggs). He hits his field goals and can block shots. This may be a top-20 center for the next month, if not beyond. We will not go as far as to predict Bitadze over Gobert (or Poeltl or even Capela), the rest of the way, but with the Orlando injuries and big minutes likely pending, there is a pathway to this result.
Source: espn.com