How should you bet the first round of the NBA playoffs and what does each series look like?
The answer to those questions is never easy, but this season it just might be more difficult than ever due to the sheer amount of hugely talented teams in the playoffs, particularly in the Western Conference. Any team that makes it out of the West this season will be battle-tested.
Here are NBA betting experts Eric Moody, Eric Karabell, Jim McCormick and Steve Alexander with the bets they like most for each series.
Odds are updated as of publication. For latest odds go to ESPN BET
Eastern Conference
No. 1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 8 TBD
This will be added after the No. 8 seed is finalized.
No. 2 Boston Celtics vs. No. 7 Orlando Magic
Series goes 6 games (+650)
The defending champion Celtics are overwhelming favorites to dominate the offense-challenged Magic, but that doesn’t mean this series will be a quick sweep. Orlando excels defensively and the Celtics are so reliant on the 3-point shot that one could see how there is some length to the series. This is especially so if Celtics star Jaylen Brown is compromised physically, or even misses a game or two. Celtics in 6 is a buying opportunity for optimistic bettors. — Karabell
No. 3 New York Knicks vs. No. 6 Detroit Pistons
Pistons series winner (+290)
This is the first-round series I’m most excited about. The Pistons, like the Knicks, haven’t performed well against good teams all season, but Detroit has gone 3-1 against New York. Cade Cunningham has played especially well against the Knicks and even with OG Anunoby defending him, Cunningham finds ways to create for others. Ausar Thompson’s defense could disrupt the Knicks’ rhythm, and Detroit has the grit to go toe-to-toe with New York. — Moody
Knicks series winner (-400)
The Pistons have had an incredible season, going from 14 wins last season to 44 wins this season. And while the 51-win Knicks are not deep, they are well-coached and every meaningful player has fully bought into what coach Tom Thibodeau is selling. Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges and Anunoby are a stellar starting five and all that Thibs should need to advance to Round 2. While I agree with Moody that the Pistons at +290 is more enticing, I think the smart money is on the Knicks. Just hope that they don’t suffer an injury during the series, as their bench is very thin. — Alexander
No. 4 Indiana Pacers vs. No. 5 Milwaukee Bucks
Pacers to win Game 1 and the series (-115)
Milwaukee’s signature strengths — rebounding, defense and net rating — now favor Indiana. In March, the Pacers were among the better teams in net rating, pace, offensive efficiency and, most notably, fourth in assist percentage. The Bucks, by contrast, were 24th in assist rate and middle-of-the-pack in defense, rebounding and net rating. The metrics were even worse in February with Damian Lillard — so his absence doesn’t signal some new trend. The ball moves in Indiana’s offense, it doesn’t for Milwaukee. Still, I like Giannis Antetokounmpo to score 50 in a game (+300) at some point in this series. — McCormick
Western Conference
No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 8 TBD
This will be added after the No. 8 seed is finalized.
No. 2 Houston Rockets vs. No. 7 Golden State Warriors
Rockets series winner (+150)
Everyone seems to love the Warriors, which is probably why the No. 7 seed is favored over the upstart No. 2 seed. This seems like a wise betting opportunity, zag when everyone zigs. The Rockets are no fluke. Sure, they lack “playoff experience,” but it is one thing for the beloved Stephen Curry/Jimmy Butler III combo to vanquish the dysfunctional Grizzlies. Now they face a young, deep, energetic and well-coached team in a full series. Bettors can take advantage. — Karabell
Jimmy Butler III to average over 5.5 assists (-130) for the series
You’ll find this in the “player stats” section of ESPN BET’s playoff menu. I have a tough time predicting the actual outcome of this series. I know that the Warriors have an incredible bank of experience, coaching and Stephen Curry. That’s a nice trio of assets, although the Rockets don’t seem fazed and certainly seem ready to make the Warriors earn a second-round ticket. What I feel quite comfortable with is Butler’s need to create when all the gravity pulls to Curry. After averaging nearly 10 potential assists over his final 10 games with the Warriors this season, Butler has the passing usage and the shotmakers around him to cruise past this playmaking benchmark. — McCormick
No. 3 Los Angeles Lakers vs. No. 6 Minnesota Timberwolves
Lakers win series, 4-2 (+550)
The Timberwolves have leaned too heavily on Anthony Edwards and haven’t shown the same aggressiveness defensively as in last year’s playoff run. Also, Julius Randle hasn’t been reliable in the playoffs. Even though the Timberwolves finished the regular season with the sixth-best defensive rating, they’ll face a Lakers squad led by LeBron James and Luka Doncic with JJ Redick orchestrating their game plan. — Moody
Lakers win series, 4-3 (+440)
Toggling between this exact outcome prediction and the series going a full seven games (+200) was part of my process, as a long series is how this reads from both the macro and micro perspectives. The Lakers have an incredible surplus of playmaking, but an absence of functional size and guard defense. The Timberwolves lack creation but are stacked with size and rim protection. Edwards will put on a show and the Minnesota defensive floor is real, but in the end, give me the team with two all-time creators in a series that will reduce to half-court and end-game moments. — McCormick
No. 4 Denver Nuggets vs. No. 5 LA Clippers
Nuggets win series, 4-3 (+415)
The Nuggets’ playoff experience and confidence in Nikola Jokic give them the edge in what many expect to be a highly contested series. Jokic dominated the Clippers in the regular season and remains the most versatile big man in the league. While Kawhi Leonard looks sharp and the Clippers are one of the top defensive units in the league, Denver’s chemistry and the way it closed the regular season under interim head coach David Adelman cannot be ignored. — Moody
Clippers to win series (-120)
Jokic may or may not have gotten his longtime coach (Michael Malone) fired, the Nuggets have abandoned Russell Westbrook and appear to just be happy to be in the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Clippers have assembled an All-Star starting lineup with James Harden, Leonard, Norman Powell, Ivica Zubac and Kris Dunn, and are deep on the bench with Bogdan Bogdanovic, Derrick Jones Jr. and Ben Simmons. The Clippers are my Cinderella team and they match up well against the Nuggets. I’m rolling with the Clippers. — Alexander
Source: espn.com