Last season’s NBA rookie class was highlighted by the emergence of Victor Wembanyama, who is aiming to fend off an early-season sophomore slump with the San Antonio Spurs.
And while all eyes will be on whether Wembanyama can get the Spurs into playoff contention in a tough Western Conference, there are other second-year players who are making an early season impact. Wembanyama’s draft classmate (and former Metropolitans 92 teammate) Bilal Coulibaly is helping lead a youth movement for the Washington Wizards, while fellow lottery pick Gradey Dick is proving why he should be part of the Toronto Raptors’ future.
On the other hand, the 2024 rookie class has had its share of ups and downs in its first two weeks. Two weeks of games is too early to draw conclusions, but the thought that this year’s draft was the weakest in a decade hasn’t been refuted by on-court results. While higher-profile rookies, including Memphis Grizzlies big man Zach Edey, are finding their footing, there have been a few pleasant surprises — including Edey’s fellow first-year teammate Jaylen Wells.
Here are some early-season trends from three notable NBA sophomores, one surprise rookie, and what to make of the 2024 draft class so far.
Jump to a section:
Wemby’s Year 2 outlook
Wizards leaning on Coulibaly
Dick proving his worth on Raptors
The other Memphis rookie standout
Slow start for the 2024 draft class
What are Wembanyama’s realistic expectations in Year 2?
This season has already come with some unique highs and atypical lows for the 2023 No. 1 pick. Wembanyama turned in the second ultra-rare 5×5 game of his career on Halloween against the Utah Jazz, which came after scoring just six points against the Oklahoma City Thunder, which came after a 14-point, 20-rebound showing in a loss to the Houston Rockets.
The odds are that Wembanyama will get back to, and eventually, raise his usual lofty standards. He can be a streaky shooter due to the number of off-balance and creative attempts he likes to take. Due to his frame, he’s really a perimeter player, not a back-to-the basket big, but there could be more emphasis on getting him easy touches, and less settling on his part (he’s attempted 9.6 jumpers jumpers per game to just 5.1 layups through seven games, per Second Spectrum data). His midrange game should become consistent as he matures, but Wembanyama is so good around the rim at his size that those high-value touches ultimately need to spike. For now, the easy dunks and layups help to counterbalance the tough ones.
How you view his slow start (his 25% on jump shots ranks last among players with at least 50 attempts, per Second Spectrum) revolves around your expectations for San Antonio. The Spurs have the league’s third-youngest roster, and rank in the bottom five of the league in offensive efficiency. Still, it doesn’t mean a big sophomore jump for Wembanyama isn’t coming.
The Spurs will ultimately go as the 20-year-old Wembanyama goes this season. Coach Gregg Popovich’s availability and health are now big-picture concerns. The offseason additions of Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes give them much better structure, although they have not been good offensively so far. San Antonio’s offense has been smartly geared toward putting adequate spacing around Wembanyama, working the ball through him as an outlet, and giving him freedom to create.
Paul’s presence has given Wembanyama more opportunities to work as a screener and attack the middle of the floor. Devin Vassell’s impending return from a foot injury should enhance the spacing around him. It’s also in the Spurs’ best interest to keep developing their younger bench players, including rookie Stephon Castle and 2022 first-round pick Malaki Branham, even if there are growing pains.
It won’t be easy this season for Wembanyama, particularly without a second star to consistently draw attention. Opposing teams have double-teamed him on nine total post-ups this season — second-most in the NBA behind Nikola Jokic, according to Second Spectrum. Of course, there aren’t many other ways to guard Wembanyama — teams are sending pressure, guarding him physically and trying to influence him out of the paint and into tougher attempts. His physical stature and deft footwork give him tremendous advantages operating in space and scoring over opponents, but that level of coverage takes any star player time to figure out.
Coulibaly emerging for young Wizards
The Washington Wizards are leaning on their youngsters, with 2024 first-round picks Alexandre Sarr, Bub Carrington and Kyshawn George all ranked in the top five in average minutes played per game among rookies. At 2-4, the Wizards are embracing the steep learning curve for a roster that will most likely add another lottery pick in June. To their credit, the young guys have played hard and made for an interesting watch.
This also bodes well for last year’s No. 7 overall pick, Bilal Coulibaly, who has begun to turn a corner in early-season action.
Coulibaly’s development track over the past two years (dating back to his time as Wembanyama’s teammate in France) has been remarkable, not just from a skill perspective but also in terms of his confidence and decisiveness. Averaging 17.7 points, 5.8 rebounds, 2.5 assists and a steal through six games, the 6-8 wing appears to be translating his considerable potential into production. He shined in the Wizards’ two wins against the Hawks last week, during which he blanketed Trae Young for long stretches, using his length and agility to make things difficult.
The 20-year-old Coulibaly scored a career-high 27 points in last week’s win over the Hawks, has contributed with transition finishing, easy baskets around the rim (68% on 2s), and has flashed improvement as a 3-point shooter (47% on four attempts per game).
Coulibaly has All-Defense level tools and can switch on pretty much all opponents from smaller guards to bigger wings. The Wizards are letting him get comfortable as a playmaker, too, and he continues to flash passing skills in the flow of the game. His ability to create his own shot will ultimately determine what type of career Coulibaly has, but the multi-positional versatility he brings at his size is uncommon.
His current clip may not be sustainable over an 82-game stretch, but Coulibaly has the talent to become a centerpiece for the Wizards. Not many players can take the toughest defensive assignment every night, play all over the perimeter offensively and finish plays at a high rate. If his shooting falls into place, Coulibaly could become one of the better wings in the NBA.
Dick finding role on rebuilding Raptors
The Raptors are dealing with an early wave of injuries and have seen stars Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett miss games, already vacating a ton of offensive opportunities in the interim. But that hasn’t stopped Gradey Dick, who’s averaging 21 points per game and has shown real flashes as a dynamic perimeter shooter in his second season.
His emergence as a contributor, despite a 2-6 start, is an important development for the Raptors, who are in the process of assembling winning parts for the future and need their draft picks to pan out. Dick, in particular, has the type of skillset that’s critical to putting the right level of spacing around Barnes. He’s a very good shooter on the move and has expanded his shot selection to include more above-the-break 3s, averaging six attempts per game with a 59.1 effective percentage, per Second Spectrum. His 37.3% mark from long range should feasibly improve over time and with more talent on the floor around him. Dick is establishing himself as someone defenses can’t afford to leave open.
These early performances are of a bounce-back for Dick, who didn’t light it up as a 20-year-old rookie nor shoot particularly well in 11 games in the G League last season. Given that shooting was viewed as Dick’s best skill coming out of Kansas, his play raised some level of concern from observers around the league as to whether Toronto had overdrafted him with the No. 13 pick, with players like Keyonte George, Jaime Jaquez, Jr., and Brandin Podziemski coming off the board after him. Dick started to fare a bit better down the final stretch of last season, amid a lot of Raptors losing.
There’s still a lot of room for improvement here, particularly on the defensive end, but his confidence and improvement have shown some early-season promise in Toronto.
Memphis’ other rookie making presence felt
Zach Edey appears to be finding his stride with the Grizzlies, scoring 25 points in Monday’s loss to the Brooklyn Nets — the most in a game by any rookie in the league so far. His 11.1 points per game leads all rookies, but not far behind him is his teammate Jaylen Wells, who was selected by Memphis in the second round of this year’s draft.
The No. 39 pick out of Washington State who began his college career in Division II, Wells was thrust into immediate playing time because of a bevy of Grizzlies injuries. Known primarily as a shooter coming out of college, the 6-8 Wells has made 38.7% of his 3s and is averaging 9.8 points a game, stepping in with Desmond Bane, Luke Kennard, Marcus Smart and others sidelined. He scored 15 and 16 points in his first two starts.
He has also been better than anticipated defensively, showing capacity to defend the ball in a pinch, which would be a significant boost to his skill set if it holds. He wasn’t viewed by scouts as a plus defender coming out of college, and a recent sequence where he kept up with 76ers star Tyrese Maxey was certainly noteworthy.
While it’s unclear how big a role Wells, 21, will maintain as Memphis gets healthier, he certainly looks like the latest quality draft snag for the Grizzlies. Wells had a late growth spurt in college, and wasn’t seen as a sure thing by NBA scouts after just one season at Washington State. His shooting ability and the late-blooming nature of his career created some sleeper appeal around the league, but his decision to enter the draft or return to college wasn’t clear-cut.
Wells has landed in an ideal development situation , where he can space the floor alongside Ja Morant, contribute defensively and isn’t pressured to create many shots in the flow of the game. He doesn’t have tantalizing upside — he’s not exceptionally physical, nor is he a dynamic mover — but Wells looks comfortable. His early play has been one of the few bright spots thus far for the rookie class.
Time to temper the outlook for the ’24 draft class
If you followed ESPN’s coverage of the 2024 draft cycle, your expectations for this rookie class might have been sufficiently realistic.
The level of excitement among NBA scouts and executives about the 2024 draft cycle could have been described as muted. Quality players emerge over time from every draft, but the number of prospects entering the league prepared to be high-impact players was scant, based on the general consensus of those who scrutinize players’ every move. Granted the majority of the league’s rookies, historically speaking, are not net-positive players in their minutes but the expectations for this class particularly were not high.
That feeling has been reflected tangibly in the early on-court evidence: Just eight rookies are averaging more than 20 minutes a game, and three play for the Wizards.
Among top names in the class: No. 1 pick Zaccharie Risacher is shooting just 32.9% from the field. No. 2 pick Alexandre Sarr is blocking nearly three shots per game but has struggled with his offensive efficiency. No. 3 pick Reed Sheppard hasn’t carved out a regular role yet in Houston. Edey, a popular Rookie of the Year pick, has battled foul trouble while adjusting to the speed of the NBA game. The list goes on. Obvious statement alert: Learning to play in the NBA is a very hard job!
There have been a few bright spots among the rookie class, if not seismic ones. The aforementioned Wells looks like a find for Memphis. Ryan Dunn (No. 28) has made an unexpected shooting leap in Phoenix that’s turning him into a key role player on a team with big aspirations. He shot 23% from 3 at Virginia and is now making 39% from NBA range on nearly five attempts per game. Yves Missi (No. 21) has made positive contributions as a shot-blocker and rim-rummer for the injury-depleted New Orleans Pelicans.
The flow of the season will create opportunities for other rookies to step up, and front offices will be closely monitoring the development of this class.
Source: espn.com